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Chapter 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

Chapter 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses. Cognitive & Non Cog Abilities Personality Criteria. Conceptual & Operational Definitions Predictors & Criteria. F. Kerlinger’s definitions Concept or construct: What’s the difference? Theory v. hypothesis: what’s the difference?

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Chapter 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

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  1. Chapter 3Developing Predictive Hypotheses Cognitive & Non Cog Abilities Personality Criteria Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  2. Conceptual & Operational DefinitionsPredictors & Criteria • F. Kerlinger’s definitions • Concept or construct: What’s the difference? • Theory v. hypothesis: what’s the difference? • Predictive Hypothesis: • Grounded in theory (explanation relationships) • Predictors & Criteria: defined at two levels: • conceptual & operational: What’s the difference? Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  3. Predictors (KSAOs, other attributes) • (independent vars for experimental research) • Give some examples with operational definitions • Criteria (performance/results) • Outcomes (dependent vars for experimental research) • Give some examples with operational definitions Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  4. Theory Building and Testing fig 3.1 p 53 • 1. Theory: • predictor construct(height) is related to • criterion construct(basketball ability) • 2. Predictive hypothesis (testable): • predictor measure(height in inches) is related to • Criterion measure(number dunks in 2 minutes) • 3. Predictor measureis valid measure of height • 4. Criterion measureis a valid measure of basketball ability • 5. Predictor measureis related to the Criterion construct • (confirms prediction and supports theory) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  5. Theory and Practice • Specification of Population • For what populations does the theory hold? • Why would this be important? • Give some examples, • e.g. women in the military? • Geographical differences? • Specification of time intervals • What’s the optimal timeframe for criterion collection? • When and how long should the criterion? • Give examples for jobs with different learning curves Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  6. Specifying functional relationships • Linear • Give examples linear relationships • Curvilinear • Give examples of curvilinear relationships Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  7. Criteria • Criterion constructs • Inferring Constructs from Measures • A theory of Performance • Performance Components and Determinants • Contextual Behavior • Trainability Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  8. Predictors & Predictive Hypotheses • Avoid “folklore theories” • Use standardized measures proven to work • E.g. Cognitive ability, which is usually superior to non-cognitive measures. • Cognitive Factors (ability to think) • perceive, process, evaluate, compare, create, • Understand, manipulate (ideas), reason • 75 years of Factor Analytic studies Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  9. Cognitive • 7 Primary Mental abilities (Thurstone, ‘38) • Verbal comprehension • Word fluency • Spatial ability • Perceptual speed • Numerical facility • Memory • Inductive reasoning Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  10. Cognitive Abilities • General Mental Ability (GMA) intelligence • “Processes of • Acquiring, • Storing (memory) • Retrieving • Combining, (relationships) • Comparing, (relationships) • Using in context new concepts (abstraction)” • (Humphreys, ‘79) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  11. GMA • Spearman’s (1927)“g” • Fluid intelligence (Gf) • Basic reasoning • Crystallized intelligence (Gc) • Acquired knowledge (e.g. vocabulary tests) • Carroll (1993) using factor analytic studies • Three stratum model • First order factors (several) • Second order factors (R. B. Cattell’sGf, Gc) • Third order “g” (like Spearman’s) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  12. Job Specific Ks & Ss • O*Net – three occupational skills list • Basic • Cross functional • Occupation specific • Think of some for the IO psychologist’s job Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  13. Personality Constructs • Trait – habitual way of thinking or behaving in response to a variety of situations. • Value, goal, beh tendency to seek or avoid • Sometimes role specific • Called “work styles” “occupational values” (O*Net) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  14. Personality • Five Factor Model (universal) • NEO (CANOE) • Guion & Highhouse • Surgency (extravert, dominance, assertive) • Agreeableness (likeability, friendly) • Conscientiousness (responsible, dependable) • Emotional Stability • Open to experience (intellectance) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  15. Personality • Integrity and conscientiousness • Not engaging in counter-productive behavior • Stealing, • embezzlement • cheating customers • Others? • Trustworthy • Work hard without surveillance Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  16. Personality • Other traits (just a few) • Core Self-evaluation (Judge, Eraz, Bono) • Locus of Control (Rotter) • Smith, Trompenaars & Dugan (2007) • PA/NA (positive/ negative affect) • Watson, Clark, Lee Tellegen (1988) • GCOS • General Causality Scale Description (Deci & Ryan) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  17. Personalitysome questions • Are traits malleable? • Are they job specific? • How, if so should they be used in selection? • What needs to be done to improve their use? Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  18. Physical and Sensory CompetenciesWhat effect has ADA had? • Physical Characteristics • At what cost are accommodations to the workplace (for ADA?) • Find some examples? • What role does human factors play? • Physical Abilities • Fleishman, Hogan (have studied them) • Are they important in sports? • Are they important in the military? Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  19. Non-Cognitive • Emotional Intelligence (Goleman, ‘95) • Perceive, appraise, express emotions • (Mayer & Salovey, ‘97) • Lacks conceptual coherence • Not psychometrically sound • Redundant with other measures? • E.g. cognitive ability, personality traits? • (Matthews, Roberts, & Zeidner, ‘04) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  20. Experience, Education, Training • Credentials are rarely useful • Unless based on a Job Analysis • Some majors may be useful • If knowledge is comparable to professions • Can you think of some? • Can competencies be assessed via testing? • What would Prometricsay? Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

  21. Team Selection Predictors • Technical (often needed) • Stevens & Campion (‘94) Team KSAs • Interpersonal & Self-management • The knowledge, skill, and ability requirements for teamwork: Implications for human resource management (Michael J. Stevens Michael A. Campion, ‘94) • Staffing Work Teams: Development and Validation of a Selection Test for Teamwork Settings (Stevens & Campion, ‘99) • Selection in Teams: An Exploration of the Teamwork Knowledge, Skills, and Ability Test (McClough & Rogelberg, ‘03) • Use of situational judgment tests to predict job performance: A clarification of the literature. (McDaniel, et al. ‘01) Chap 3 Developing Predictive Hypotheses

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