Overview of the Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation of Climate Change for Agriculture in China

1. Overview of the Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation of Climate Changefor Agriculture in China Zhai Panmao China Meteorological Administration

2. 2 3 4 5 1 Observed Climate Changes Projections Impact Vulnerability Adaptation Outline

3. Observed Climate Changes

4. Change in Mean SAT in the world and China Global Anomalies of temperature China （Global curve come from HadCRUTv3，Chinese curve was retraced by Shaowu Wang（1998）） The updated 100-year linear trend of 0.74 [0.56-0.92]°C. The linear warming trend over the last 50 years is 0.13 [0.10 to 0.16]°C per decade) which is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.

5. Trends in annual mean temperature over Chinaduring the last 50 years

6. Whole China Mean Precipitation Anomalies Anomalies Percentage Anomalies

7. 50 40 30 20 80 90 100 110 120 130 Trends in Annual Precipitation during 1951-2000 F Filled (open) circles 10%, 5% increase (decrease) X Significant at the 5% level

8. Annual precipitation in North China (trend: -19mm/10a)

9. Annual precipitation in Northeast China (trend: -13mm/10a)

10. Some extreme events have become stronger and more frequent precipitation temperature Tropical cyclone drought Hot days, warm nights and heat weaves have become more frequent. Intensity of tropical cyclone, including typhoon and hurricane, become stronger. Drought last longer, and have become heavier and more widespread. Heavy precipitation events have increased over most land area over the last 50 years.

11. Trends in number of extreme precipitation days derived from 95th percentile More Extreme events

12. Variation of percentage area of droughts calculated by using Palmer Index

13. Drought Stricken Crop Area (104 hectare) in China 1949-1999年中国干旱灾害统计直方图 1949-1999年中国干旱灾害统计直方图

14. Variation of Frost days in China

15. Projections

16. 6.4℃ 1.1℃ ( IPCC AR4, 2007 ) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model projections of surface warming Year 2000 constant concentrations 20thcentury Global surface warming 在多个温室气体排放情景下，本世纪末全球平均升温幅度大致为1.1－6.4℃。对于低排放情景（B1），升温为1.1－2.9℃，对于高排放情景（A1FI），升温为2.4－6.4℃。

17. Since the TAR there is an improving understanding of projected patterns of precipitation. Increasing in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions. Multi-model projected patterns of precipitation change DJF JJA

18. Temperature is going to increase Projection of SAT in China up to 2100 （中国气象局国家气候中心） （粗黑线表示观测值，王绍武，龚道溢提供；粗红线表示GG平均； 粗杏黄线表示GS平均；粗褐线表示A2, B2平均；粗黄线表示NCC/IAPT63）

19. 21 Century Precipitation Project using several IPCC models based on 4 different scenarios Precipitation increases in future 100years （中国气象局国家气候中心）

20. Projects of China’s annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation （relative to 1980-1999 average） Project of surface temperature Projection of annual precipitation • To 2020, precipitation in China is projected to increase slightly • To 2050, precipitation increase 2-5% • To the end of 21century, precipitation is projected to raise 6-14%

21. Project of climate extremes (IPCC) difficult to grasp frequency, intensity and regional distribution of extremes Tropicalcyclones (including typhoon and hurricane) ↑ Frequency of heavy rainfall ↑ Extreme high temperature, heat wave ↑

22. In the future 100 years, the frequency of some extreme events is likely to increase in China. China will face more significant extremes, such as droughts, floods, extreme temperature events. The frequency, intensity and extent of extremes, such as droughts and floods and agricultural plant disease and insect pests relevant to climate will aggregate. Moreover, that will also aggregate water supply.

23. Impacts

24. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Observed Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Positive impacts Negative impacts (main) With increased mean temperature over a suitable range, the north boundary of winter wheat obviously extended northward and westward in NE China; the planting area of late planting corn expanded. Agriculture loss caused by weather disaster, especially regional high temperature, drought and spring frost, were aggravated. Stability of agriculture production decreased.

25. B A C D E Impacts of climate change on agricultural production On regulation of planting and layout of crop On invest of agri. means of production On agricultural yield and quality On agricultural biological hazard On agro-met extremes

26. Impact on agricultural yield and quality In high latitude regions, if temperature increasing 1-3 ℃, the products of agriculture are predicted to raise slightly. In low latitude regions, especially in seasonal dry regions and tropical areas, temperature will be raising 1-2 ℃, the products of agriculture will also decline. Without adaptation, plant production to 2030 is likely to reduce 5-10%, especially for wheat, rice and corn.

27. Production output will reduce 5-10% until 2030 if no adaptive measurements taken. (cause: temperature rises, flood and drought aggravates, water shortage ) 60% Increase 40% 20% 0% Decrease -20% -40% -60% 冬 灌 春 灌 单 早 晚 春 灌 夏 灌 小 溉 小 溉 季 稻 稻 玉 溉 玉 溉 麦 春 稻 米 春 米 夏 麦 冬 小 玉 玉 小 麦 麦 米 米 For Wheat, Rice and Corn in China

28. Impact on regulation of planting and layout of crop When annul mean temperature raise 1℃, the day with ≥10℃ accumulated temperature extend 15days and the north boundary of planting obviously extended northward. Will lead to large area of two cropping system into three cropping system; and the north boundary of two cropping system extend northward. The layout of main crop will change significantly. The winter wheat will be likely replaced by other types in North China; Southern rice varieties gradually extend northward; Early maturing variety of corn will be replaced by middle-late season variety in the Northeast.

29. Impact onagricultural means of production to resist and cure disease, insects and the cost of agricultural fertilizer. With temperature raising, the area of planting disease and pest insects spread，and its growing season extend, thus planting suffer greatly. Global warming, available nitrogen release much.

30. Impact on agro-met extremes Extreme events are the great enemy for agriculture product and food security. Annual gross loss is excess to 50 billion kilograms and might be greater in future. The main extreme eventscausing yield reduction are drought, flood, hurricane and low temperature. Extremes Drought Flood High temperatures Water Shortage

31. Drought The most damage caused by aggravating drought leads annual loss reach to 30 billion kilograms, taking 60% gross loss.

32. Flood Aggravating flood takes the second placeto cause great yield reduction, almost it take up 25%. Yangtze river basin as a high production area, nearly 1/3 counties are high vulnerable.

33. High temperatures Will lead to extremes correlating to temperature aggravating; that’s negative to grain production.

34. Water Shortage Global warming water shortage (1%) irrigation area↓（1%） grain yield↓(7.5 billion kg) Water shortage is the main restrictive factor to agricultural production, especially in north China and northeast China.

35. Impacts on agricultural biological hazard Weather condition and extremes can lead to major diseases and pests of corps. Climate change lead to biological hazard aggravating, that is likely to cause more serious agricultural problems if no adaptation. Aggravating agricultural biological hazard, annual loss of crops gets to 30 billion kg. Area of main crops’ diseases and pests expanding, frequency raising and hazard aggravating.

36. Potential production of planting is likely to reduce in future. It might reduce 5~10% to 2030; And the decreasing rage might be more than 1 time to 2071~2100. Climate change is worse in future 100y, extreme events are more frequent, that leads to main crops’ yield reduction. Temperature raising 1 degree, yield reduces 10 percents.

37. Observed impacts on forest Coverage Area human disturbance dominates, only in regions with less active human activity where climate change impactcan be identified … Tree Species Spatial Distribution Lower boundary of forest belt the in Qilian mountain raised from 1900m to 2300m. The area reduced 16.5%, coverage rate reduced by 10% in the past decades .

38. Coverage rate （中国气候与环境演变科学报告，2005） Forest coverage reduced！ Only 16.55% in the end of 21st

39. Impact on forest in future Forestvegetation zone extend northward; The area of deciduous needle-leaf forest ↓ Deciduous broad-leaved forest ↑ Type: southern  northern Future Climate: Warming; Spatial distribution of humidity change Thealpine meadow ↓; Tropical savanna/evergreen coniferous forest↑ Frequency and areaof forest fire disaster↑ Coverage and degree of forest diseases and insect pests ↑

40. Impact on China’s Fishery Climate change Fishery production is very sensitive to climate change. Current, SST fishing ground, fishing season fishery production Climate change The output and catch of the main economic species in China’s four sea areas—the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea↓

41. Impact on fishery production in the future It is projected that by 2030-2050, fish production will likely to reduce 5-15%, and fish catch decrease by 1-8%, based on CO2 increase rate of 1% per year.

42. Vulnerability

43. Vulnerability of climate change on agriculture in China China is a country of monsoon climate and frequently impact by extreme weather. Climate change aggregates impact of climate variability and extremes. Agriculture is expected to experience more negative impacts and greater losses. In addition, China’s agriculture is limited by economy and deficient agricultural investments, thus leads to vulnerable to extremes and risks of climate change. The future, the discrepancy of vulnerability in regions will enlarge. There exist obviously high vulnerable regions in China.

44. Vulnerable areas of agriculture to climate change 0: not vulnerable; 1～5：vulnerability varies from low to high

45. Vulnerability of rain-fed and irrigating wheat

46. Vulnerability of climate change on agricultural system Study on the Loess Plateau region indicates that the vulnerability of climate change on agricultural product is higher than that on central-east part of northern Shanxi, the south part of Ningxia Province, the eastern part of central Gansu Province and eastern Gansu Province. Regions with higher vulnerability are always found to be with severe natural conditions and poor economic conditions.

47. Adaptation Actively adjust agriculture structure, intensify management and improve agricultural infrastructure; rely on new technology to strengthen the ability to cope with and adapt to negative impact of climate change; reduce to the least loss and get potential benefits. Adjust the layout of agricultural crops Develop modern biology and new technology Improve management measurements of agriculture Improve agricultural infrastructure and condition

48. Adjusting the layout of crops Analyzing future new structure of distribution of light, temperature, water source and agricultural weather disasters; improving the layout of crop breeds. Extending growth period may be good for crop production in the north，so we should scientifically change the planting regulation.

49. Developing modern biology and new technology To reduce negative impacts on agriculture, selecting breed is an important adaptive countermeasure. To develop new technology such as photosynthesis, biological nitrogen fixation, biological technology, to resist adversity. To develop adaptive and high quality new breed is a very important method for agriculture to adaptive climate change.

50. Improving agricultural management measures Efficiently utilizing water resource, fortifying irrigation and fertilization, prevention and cure plant disease and insect pests, spreading ecology agricultural technology. Advance the comprehensive technology of curing land degrading and soil erosion to improve low middle yield field. implement modern agricultural management, to decrease agricultural product cost, increase land use rate and output ratio, and promote technology of precise cultivation.