Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in „Modell Deutschland“

1. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in „Modell Deutschland“ CCS in Germany – the „future“ lies in industry Matthias Kopp, WWF Germany 28.10.2010

2. Context of Blueprint Germany • Objective: Staying below 2°C warming compared to pre-industrial levels • requires GHG-emissions reductions in 2050: • by 60-80% globally • by up to 95% for industrialised countries

3. Guidings questions: • How does one achieve a 95 % reduction in GHG in a „ripe“ industrial society? • Achievable in a world „as we know it“? • How far does technology help? • What needs to be fundamentally changed? • Does policy currently set the right guidelines? • Authors: Prognos and Öko-Institut

4. Outline of study mechanics - scenarios Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009

5. The ‘Blueprint Germany‘ project at a glance • Available: sufficient technologies and options will be available to reduce GHG emission by 95% compared to 1990 in a highly industrialized country • Achievable: a 95% GHG emission reduction can be achieved • if the windows of opportunity are used (60% of reduction is related to long-living capital stocks) • if the necessary innovation is triggered (60% of reduction depends on innovative technologies and options) • Affordable: 0.3% of GDP on average, 0.6% at the maximum • All sectors must deliver significant emission reductions, key role of power, industry and transport However, • ‘Uncomfortable’ debates emerge: biofuels, CCS, central anddecentral lock-ins

6. Full de-carbonization & more will be needed:- aggregated emissions need to be focussed on … aggregated emissions need to be consideredand timing of emissions reduction effects will be critically important Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009

7. Emission reduction contributions delivered by components: 1) Energy efficiency, 2) renewables & 3) more EE Energy efficiency Renewables RES Other Other measures Add’l reductions: add’l biofuels/biogas, CCS Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009

8. Emission reduction contributions A fresh look on priorities is needed • the appropriate timing of modernization is key for 60% of reductions if one reflects the long-living capital stocks – same is true for innovation 60% Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009

10. CCS – numbers:

11. Strategic planning and instrumentation • All sectors – remaining energy near complete – CCS for remainder, process related industrial emissions • Early uptake of CCS in biomass-conversion for net-sink capacities • In remaining fossil fired capacities – from 2040 latest CCS retrofit required (this includes gas) • CCS prioritised in industrial emissions !!!  CCS law to reflect this strategic requirement/ demonstration plants needed for robust evaluation of technology

12. Powersector specifics: • No new coal fired power stations; • Rapid (asap) demonstration in pilot-sites • thinking about a „Deutscher CCS-Entwicklungsplan“ for risk assessments and strategic planning of: • Potentials • Required infrastructure • Planning guidelines for sub-surface potentials (conflicts, competing uses, prioritisation) • „Deutschen Energie-Infrastruktur-Umbauprogramm“ to initiate and trigger off investment and commitments also for CO2 infrastructure (potentially combined with grid-planning for electricity)

13. Herzlicher Dank! Matthias Kopp WWF Deutschland Matthias.kopp@wwf.de +49 30 30 87 42 17

14. Rahmendaten • Bis 2050 nimmt die Bevölkerung um 12,5% ab • BSP ist 2050 ca. 1/3 über dem Niveau von 2005 (CAGR 0,7%) • Industrie wächst um ca. 20% bis 2050 • Ölpreise in 2050: nominal 429 USD, real 210 USD • Biomasse Potenzial: 1200 PJ Primärenergie • Verkehrssektor • Personenverkehr: vergleichbar mit heute • Güterverkehr steigt bis 2050 um 86%