The way aid works The way the world works The way aid could work

1. The way aid works The way the world works The way aid could work

3. “…the smallpox eradication effort evolved over time in response to the practical realities in the field, the development of new approaches through research, the active involvement of local leadership and peoples, and imaginative quality control measures and supervision. It developed different approaches and strategies adapted to local conditions...” DON HENDERSON, DIRECTOR OF SMALLPOX CAMPAIGN

5. Cognitive and operational biases in aid Systems Relations ‘…where machines work well.Such approaches would be ideal where there is a straightforward task to perform, a stable context and operating environment, identical, duplicable products, and compliant, predictable and reliable parts – which includes the human ‘components’...” Behaviours Dynamics

6. “…All malaria programmes were obliged to adhere rigidly to a highly detailed, standardised manual of operations. It mandated identical job descriptions in every country and prescribed specific charts to be displayed on each office wall at each administrative level. The programme was conceived and executed as a military operation to be conducted in an identical manner whatever the battlefield... the premise of the programme was that the needed knowledge and technology was available and that success depended solely on meticulous attention to implementation detail. Research was considered unnecessary and was effectively suspended from the launch of the programme…”

7. “...The Newtonian model is staggering about the global stage like a mortally wounded Shakespearean actor...”

8. The way aid works The way the world works The way aid could work

9. The problems we face in science and policy • Organised simplicity • Disorganised complexity • Organised complexity

10. Complex Adaptive System Many interacting agents and organizations of agents Designs and strategies evolve over time Macro patterns emerge from micro behavior The world is rife with ‘complex adaptive systems’

11. Complexity science helps development scientists better understand systems, networks, behaviours and dynamics Diverse networks Emergent systems Adaptive behaviours Dynamic change

12. (Compare to the institutionalised operating assumptions of aid) Systems Relations Behaviours Dynamics

13. The way aid works The way the world works The way aid could work

14. SYSTEMS • Systems thinking approach to malaria reduction (IWMI) • Holistic management of anti-desertification programmes in Zimbabwe (Operation Hope) • System dynamics in conflict (UWM) • Social ecological systems (Indiana) BEHAVIOURS • Agent-based modelling in agriculture (French Development Agency) • Agent-based models of national political economy (World Bank) • Evolutionary approaches to dealing with malnutrition (Save the Children) • Problem-driven iterative adaptation (Harvard, Bank) NETWORKS • Complexity, networks and growth (Harvard Center for International Development) • Social network analysis of disaster responses (Red Cross) • Global economic fragility (IMF) • Irrigation and water temple networks in Bali (Santa Fe) DYNAMICS Non-linear epidemiology (Sahel) • Emergent education (NIIT, IFC) • Mhealth approaches in Africa • Scaling up health interventions (Future Health Systems Consortium)

15. Network analysis: from atomised actors with formal relations to informal, social cliques and groups

16. Case study: Atlas of Economic Complexity • A network-based approach to economic development • Networks of productive knowledge condition and shape the development of nations • The structure of network explains growth and stagnation • Best predictor of national growth available

17. The product space

18. Ghana vs Malaysia

19. Ghana vs Malaysia

20. What complexity research brings Distribution Systems Behaviours Relations Dynamics Organized simplicity Organised complexity Disorganised complexity Humans are adaptive tinkerers; subject to errors and biases; self-organize and co-evolve with system and each other Relationships, networks, flows, ties, values, beliefs are vital. Are path dependent and historical Systems are open, dynamic, interconnected and interdependent. Macro patterns emerge from micro behaviors and interactions Change is non-linear, unpredictable, with phase transitions, characterized by power laws and discontinuities What complexity research brings

21. What complex systems research brings to development sciences Systems Behaviours Relations Dynamics Sciences of simplicity Change is direct result of actions; proportional, additive and predictable Actors can be treated as independentand atomized Systems and problems are closed, static, linear systems; reductionist Individuals use rational deduction; behaviour and action can be specified from top-down Systems are open, dynamic, interconnected and interdependent. Macro patterns emerge from micro behaviors and interactions What sciences of complexity bring Relationships, flows, ties, values, beliefs are vital. Are path dependent and historical Humans are adaptive tinkerers; subject to errors and biases; self-organize and co-evolve with system and each other Change is non-linear, unpredictable, with phase transitions, characterized by power laws and discontinuities

22. Closing thoughts

23. ‘We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.’ ALBERT EINSTEIN

25. Thank you!