Nuclear Famine

2. Nuclear Famine Jeannie Rosenberg, MD Huntingdon, QC PGS “Healing the Planet” Montreal, Sept 25 2009

3. Credits: • Steven Starr • International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation • Physicians for Global Survival • PowerPoint slides prepared with the assistance of • Alan Robock • Department of Environmental Sciences • Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey USA

4. Alan Robock site: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/

5. “The Year without a Summer” 1816

8. Cities burn Ground bursts Massive amounts of smoke Massive amounts of dust Sunlight absorbed Sunlight reflected Very little sunlight reaches the ground Rapid, large surface temperature drops “Nuclear Winter” Nuclear Holocaust

9. Methodology of Research • Comprehensive peer reviewed studies done at Rutgers, the University of Colorado-Boulder and UCLA • Multiple 10 year simulations done using state of art techniques and equipment • Employed the same NASA climate model used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

10. Primary Findings • Less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal detonated in large cities will cause catastrophic disruptions of global climate and massive destruction of the protective stratospheric ozone layer • The climatic consequences of a large nuclear war – or even a pre-emptive nuclear strike – would make the Earth uninhabitable for humans

11. Largest conventional bomb = 44 tons TNT Hiroshima-size nuclear weapon = 15,000 tons TNT Smallest strategic nuclear weapon = 100,000 tons TNT Large U.S. strategic nuclear weapon = 1,300,000 tons TNT Largest known strategic nuclear weapon = 100,000,000 tons TNT

12. Megaton = one million tons of TNT = Mt India-Pakistan War = 1 ½ Mt World War II = 3 Mt High-Alert U.S. and Russian weapons = 1185 Mt Total deployed U.S. and Russian weapons = 2700 MT

13. Global warming since 1880 (in blue ) compared to predicted temperature drops from nuclear war

16. Canadian wheat production after small drops in average surface temperature

19. India-Pakistan nuclear war • 100 Hiroshima-size weapons = ½ WW II or 0.05%of deployed U.S.-Russian weapons • 5 million tons of smoke rises 50 km above cloud level into the stratosphere • Global temperatures drop to little Ice-Age levels; significant reduction in precipitation • 25-40% of ozone destroyed at mid-latitudes, 50-70% destroyed at northern high latitudes

20. India-Pakistani conflict using 100 Hiroshima-size nuclear weapons

21. Change in average surface temps 2 years after India-Pakistan nuclear war

22. % Change in global precipitation 1 year after India-Pakistan nuclear war

23. How could nuclear war start? • Escalation of a local war • Accident

24. Annihilation by Accident

25. Megaton = one million tons of TNT = Mt World War II = 3 Mt High-Alert U.S. and Russian weapons = 1185 Mt Total deployed U.S. and Russian weapons = 2700 MT

26. Operational nuclear arsenal has 1000 times the explosive power of all the bombs detonated in World War II • High-alert arsenals = 300 times explosive power of WWII

27. Launch-on-Warning (LoW) • the Cold War policy of launching a retaliatory nuclear strike while the opponent's missiles or warheads are believed to be in flight, but before any detonation from the perceived attack has occurred • Under LoW the decision to launch is made solely on the basis of electronic EWS data

28. What Are High-Alert Nuclear Weapons? • Missiles with nuclear warheads that can be launched in 2 to 15 minutes • Missiles that cannot be recalled and require 30 minutes or less to reach their targets • Most land-based U.S. and Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are on high-alert, along with some submarine-launched missiles (SLBMs)

29. False Alarms

30. 20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War by Alan F. Phillips, M.D • PGS website (PGS.ca) • Resources • Abolition of nuclear weapons • Articles

31. Prevention

34. Steps to Eliminate High-Alert Weapons • Eliminate Launch-on-Warning Policy • De-Alert Nuclear Weapon Systems

35. De-Alerting Nuclear Weapons • De-alerting is the introduction of physical changes to nuclear weapon systems to slow down the launch process • De-alerting can be used to rapidly implement existing arms control agreements • Many ways to implement de-alerting: block silo lids, pin back firing switches, removing warheads from missiles

36. Eliminate Launch-on-Warning Policy • Launch-on-Warningpolicy can beeliminatedby Presidential decree • NO retaliation ordered ONLY on the basis of electronic EWS data • Policy of RLOAD = Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation would prevent accidental nuclear war based upon a false warning

37. Nuclear war is a Climate Change issue • Even a small local nuclear war would cause catastrophic global cooling, drought, and famine. • Progress made on global warming would be made meaningless by a nuclear war. • Taking nuclear missiles off “Launch on Warning” would greatly reduce the risk of accidental nuclear war.