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Stratospheric and tropospheric effects of solar activity

Stratospheric and tropospheric effects of solar activity. K. Tourpali Lab. Of Atmospheric Physics Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece CCMVal-2 PIs. Questions. How does the Sun influence natural climate variability?

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Stratospheric and tropospheric effects of solar activity

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  1. Stratospheric and tropospheric effects of solar activity K. Tourpali Lab. Of Atmospheric Physics Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece CCMVal-2 PIs Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  2. Questions • How does the Sun influence natural climate variability? • What is the role of the stratosphere - how does the exchange with the troposphere work? • Which mechanisms (top-down, bottom-up) are important for solar influences on climate? • Can climate models represent the observed signals? Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  3. Observations: Solar cycle variations in • Stratosphere: Temperatures and geopotential heights (Labitzke and van Loon) • Sea surface: temperatures, mean sea level pressures • Winds: Zonal, Vertical • Tropical circulations : Hadley, Walker circulation • Mid / high latitude ‘annular modes’ • Clouds / precipitation Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  4. Observations: Solar cycle variations in Stratosphere: Temperatures and geopotential heights (Labitzke and van Loon) Sea surface: temperatures, mean sea level pressures Winds: Zonal, Vertical Tropical circulations : Hadley, Walker circulation Mid / high latitude ‘annular modes’, especially Arctic Oscilaltion Clouds / precipitation Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  5. SPARC CCMval Activity Solar signal in CCMVal-2 runs • Simulation Ref-B1: Reproducing the past transient run from 1960 - to the present All forcings taken from observations Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  6. Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  7. SPARC Report -Solar signal in CCMVal-2 runs 25N-25S The signal in upper stratosphere is reasonably represented in models However, there are large differences between CCMs But also between observation data sets! possible aliasing of signal – ENSO, volcanoes Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  8. SPARC Report - Solar signal in CCMVal-2 runs Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  9. Climate Chemistry ModelsRef-B1 of CCMVal-2 No solar cycle! GEOSCCM ULAQ UMUKCA-METO UMUKCA-UCAM UMETRAC • AMTRAC3 • CAM3.5 • CCSRNIES • CMAM • CNRM-ACM • E39CA ?? Gpz not available • EMAC • LMDZrepro • MRI • NiwaSOCOL • SOCOL • UMSLIMCAT • WACCM To compare:Era-40 reanalysis Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  10. Data and method of analysis • Inputs from CCMs (monthly averages) : • Geopotential heights (3D) • Zonal winds and temperature profiles (zonal means) • Ozone total column and profile • Analysis: • Regression analysis on zonal wind focus on northern hemisphere winter • Annular mode in the Northern hemisphere winter (DJF) geopotential heights : 850hPa, 500hPa, 10hPa Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  11. Linear regression • Regression analysis on zonal wind focus on northern hemisphere winter The autoregressive linear model in general form: Courtesy of Markus Kunze Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  12. Annular mode analysis EOF analysis was performed on: - detrended series of geopotential heights - separated in solar maximum and minimum years the 1st EOF pattern represents the Arctic Oscillation variability • AO-index is the normalised leading PC • Winter mean fields regressed onto this AO-index • Correlation between the AO-index and zonal mean wind and zonal mean temp I have not touched ozone yet! Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  13. zonal wind response Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar AMTRAC3 CMAM SOCOL WACCM

  14. Solar signal in AO modewinter 850 hPa geopotential height Era-40 AMTRAC CMAM meters

  15. Solar signal in AO modewinter 850 hPa geopotential height Era-40 SOCOL WACCM meters

  16. Solar signal in AO modewinter 500 hPa geopotential height Era-40 AMTRAC CMAM meters

  17. Solar signal in AO modewinter 500 hPa geopotential height Era-40 SOCOL WACCM meters

  18. Solar signal in winter AO modewinter 10 hPa geopotential height Era-40 Amtrac waccm meters Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  19. Arctic Oscillation • Reanalysis: clear difference between solar max and min years. • A number of models with solar cycle variability reproduce this Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  20. What does a model with no SC show? 850 hPa Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  21. Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  22. Extension of the signal in the stratosphere Correlation to zonal wind 850 mb AO index Era-40 Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  23. Extension of the signal in the stratosphere Correlation to zonal wind amtrac3 Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  24. Summary (Conclusions – not there yet!) • Chemistry-Climate Models do represent the solar max vs min changes in the shape of AO • How about the vertical extension of the signal? • Do volcanic eruptions (or ENSO) disrupt the signal? Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  25. And, more Questions! What are the differences in ozone and temperature if a new SSI forcing is used? Will the stratospheric-tropospheric signals show up if another SSI forcing is used? Stronger or weaker? Will we find a better comparison to observations? Will our current perception of mechanisms (top-down, bottom-up) change? Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

  26. Thank you! Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin

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