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Hispanic Communities of Central Florida: Economic Contributions to the Region

Hispanic Communities of Central Florida: Economic Contributions to the Region. Hank Fishkind, Ph.D. Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 12051 Corporate Boulevard Orlando, Florida 32817. Overview. What is the economic outlook for the U.S. through 2009?

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Hispanic Communities of Central Florida: Economic Contributions to the Region

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  1. Hispanic Communities of Central Florida:Economic Contributions to the Region Hank Fishkind, Ph.D. Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 12051 Corporate Boulevard Orlando, Florida 32817

  2. Overview • What is the economic outlook for the U.S. through 2009? • What is the economic outlook for the region through 2009? • What are the impacts and contributions of the Hispanic Communities on the Region? • What is our expectation for Osceola County moving into the future? Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  3. U.S. Forecast Summary 2006 – 2009 • 2006Q3-2007Q1 – low point of cycle • Housing slowdown • High energy prices • Inventory correction • 2007 Soft Landing/below trend growth • Housing bubble deflates • Strong consumption and a weak dollar prop up the economy • 2008 recovery and strong growth 2009 • Main forecast risk – energy price spike Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  4. RECENT TRENDS IN GDP AND INFLATION Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  5. GROWTH IN REAL GDPINBILLIONS OF 2000$ Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  6. GROWTH IN PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 178 166 133 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  7. Consumer Confidence IndexUniversity of Michigan 1966=100 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  8. U.S. HOUSING STARTSAnnual Rate in Millions Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  9. Oil Prices – Acquisition Cost for U.S. Refiners Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  10. INTEREST RATES Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  11. GDP AND INFLATION(Percent growth SAAR) Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  12. Employment Growth By MSA000s of Jobs last 12 months Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  13. Demographic Trends & Migration Patterns Implications for Florida’s Population Growth

  14. Florida’s Population Growth • Growth depends on net migration • 87% growth net migration • 58% growth from net migration from other states • Growth averaged 351,177 per year 2000-06 • Migration from other U.S. states averaged 203,590 • No evidence of slowdown in data for 2004-05 the latest available information from IRS tax records Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  15. Domestic Migration New York New Jersey Illinois Ohio Pennsylvania Georgia Michigan California Massachusetts Virginia Foreign Migration Venezuela Puerto Rico Haiti Argentina Brazil Mexico United Kingdom Chile Canada Germany Where do Florida’s Migrants Come From? 2000-2006 Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  16. U.S. Census ProjectionsPopulation 2010 to 2030 • Florida is predicted to be the fastest growing state through 2030. • Growth will average 472,000 per year. • Probably too optimistic. • But, Florida will likely lead the U.S. • Demographics and in particular the aging of the baby boomers provides the thrust. Census Forecast figures in 000s Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  17. Orange County GrowthPopulation & Employment Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  18. Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  19. Orange County GrowthHouseholds v. Starts Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  20. Orange County Hispanic Population Growth Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  21. Orange County Hispanic Students Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  22. Orange CountyHispanic Students per Household • 0.76 Students per Hispanic Household • 0.38 Students per non-Hispanic Household Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  23. Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  24. Seminole County Hispanic Population Growth Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  25. Seminole County Hispanic Students Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  26. Seminole CountyHispanic Students per Household • 0.59 Students per Hispanic Household • 0.40 Students per non-Hispanic Household Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  27. Osceola County GrowthPopulation & Employment Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  28. Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  29. Osceola CountyHousehold Growth v. Starts Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  30. Osceola County Hispanic Population Growth Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  31. Osceola County Hispanic Students Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  32. Osceola CountyHispanic Students per Household • 0.82 Students per Hispanic Household • 0.47 Students per non-Hispanic Household Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  33. Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  34. Lake County Hispanic Population Growth Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  35. Lake County Hispanic Students Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  36. Lake CountyHispanic Students per Household • 0.44 Students per Hispanic Household • 0.33 Students per non-Hispanic Household Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  37. Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  38. Volusia County Hispanic Population Growth Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  39. Volusia County Hispanic Students Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  40. Volusia CountyHispanic Students per Household • 0.37 Students per Hispanic Household • 0.31 Students per non-Hispanic Household Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  41. Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  42. Brevard County Hispanic Population Growth Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  43. Brevard County Hispanic Students Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  44. Brevard CountyHispanic Students per Household • 0.27 Students per Hispanic Household • 0.35 Students per non-Hispanic Household Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  45. Polk County GrowthPopulation and Employment Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  46. Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  47. Polk County Housing Starts Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  48. Polk County Hispanic Population Growth Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  49. Polk County Hispanic Students Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

  50. Polk CountyHispanic Students per Household • 0.56 Students per Hispanic Household • 0.40 Students per non-Hispanic Household Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

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