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COMFORT Welcome and overview

Explore the COMFORT project funded by the EU’s Horizon 2020 program, focusing on quantifying carbon, oxygen, and nutrient cycles in the ocean to identify safe boundaries concerning tipping points. With 32 partners from various countries, the project aims to develop mitigation pathways to address critical thresholds in greenhouse gas emissions. The innovative approach includes screening observational and model data, assessing impacts of abrupt changes on ecosystems, and identifying feasible mitigation strategies. The collaboration aims to achieve a sustainable future for the Earth's oceans.

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COMFORT Welcome and overview

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  1. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989. The work reflects only the author’s/authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains. COMFORT Welcome and overview Christoph Heinze Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS 09.10.2019 Bergen

  2. COMFORT Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points • EU Horizon 2020 “Environment&Resources” Research and Innovation action. “Societal Challenges.” • Grant Agreement number: 820989 — H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2 www.comfort-project.eu • Members: 32 partners (9 European countries, Canada, South Africa, India) • Duration: 4 years, start 01 Sept. 2019 • Kick-off meeting: 9-11 Oct. 2019Bergen • EU contribution: 8.19 million €

  3. UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN (UiB) STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET (SU) INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSE (IIASA) EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH UNIVERSITAET BERN (UBERN) POTSDAM INSTITUT FUER KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG (PIK) ALFRED-WEGENER-INSTITUT HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR POLAR- UND MEERESFORSCHUNG (AWI) HELMHOLTZ ZENTRUM FUR OZEANFORSCHUNG KIEL (GEOMAR) UNIVERSITAET BREMEN (UBREMEN) UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG (UHAM) MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FORDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN EV (MPI-M) UNIVERSIDAD DE LAS PALMAS DE GRAN CANARIA (ULPGC) AGENCIA ESTATAL CONSEJO SUPERIOR DE INVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICAS (CSIC) COMMISSARIAT A L ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES (CEA) ECOLE NORMALE SUPERIEURE (ENS) COLLECTE LOCALISATION SATELLITES SA (CLS) METEO-FRANCE (MF-CNRM) HAFRANNSOKNASTOFNUN, RANNSOKNA- OG RADGJAFARSTOFNUN HAFS OG VATNA (MFRI) HAVFORSKNINGSINSTITUTTET (IMR) NORSK POLARINSTITUTT (NPI) NORCE NORWEGIAN RESEARCH CENTRE AS (NORCE) STIFTELSEN NANSEN SENTER FOR MILJOOG FJERNMALING (NERSC) GOETEBORGS UNIVERSITET (UGOT) SVERIGES METEOROLOGISKA OCH HYDROLOGISKA INSTITUT (SMHI) PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY (PML) UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA (UEA) UNITED KINGDOM RESEARCH AND INNOVATION (UKRI) THE UNIVERSITY OF EXETER (UNEXE) LANCASTER UNIVERSITY (ULANC) DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY (Dalhousie) COUNCIL FOR SCIENTIFIC AND INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH (CSIR) NANSEN ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH CENTRE (INDIA) LTD (NERCI)

  4. Consortium https://sc5.easme-web.eu/?p=820989# 32 partners International Advisory Board Stakeholder Reference Group

  5. WELCOME! Left to right: Christoph Heinze Dagmara Rusiecka Alberto Zocchi Thorsten Blenckner Special thanks: All at GFI/UiB Friederike Hoffmann Kristin Kalvik Nils Gunnar Kvamstø Those who travelled from far… Partners IAB SRG Very special thanks: EU for funding

  6. Global ocean changes due to human ΔGHG: RCP2.6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 Source: IPCC SROCC 2019 SPM

  7. BACKGROUND “Tipping points:” System response accelerates faster than forcing applied… Shifts depend on: • Changes in forcing • Changes in system shape Scheffer et al., Nature, 2009

  8. Safe operating spaces • Climate mitigation targets • Mitigation pathways OBJECTIVES mitigation 1) Warming 2) Deoxygenation 3) Acidification www.comfort.project.eu Following Steffen et al., Science, 2015, with modifications Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points detection Grant Agreement number: 820989 — H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2

  9. APPROACH Screen observational and model data (including “critical slowing down”, “reversibility”, “compound extremes”) Assess impacts of abrupt change in physical-chemical system and ecosystems (case studies, incl. fish, habitats, biomes) Quantify critical thresholds for GHG emissions based on case studies and screening (integration) Develop feasible mitigation pathways and test them through state-of-the art Earth system models, modifying scenarios/projections

  10. APPROACH

  11. DELIVERY

  12. WP2: Dynamics, extremes, early warning indicators, and reversibility WP1: Ocean state under climate change EXAMPLE EXAMPLE Extension to marine biogeochemistry needed Recent marine heatwaves, literature summary Frölicher and Laufkötter et al., 2018, Nature Comm. Drijfhout et al., 2015, PNAS

  13. WP4: Integrated Impact Assessment • WP3: Impacts, risks, thresholds: Case studies EXAMPLE EXAMPLE Shift of total average Pacific skipjack tuna biomass under aggressive A2 warming scenario, model projection Lehodey et al., 2013, Climate Change Steffen et al., 2015, Science

  14. WP5: Ocean mitigation options assessment • WP6: Projections mu EXAMPLE EXAMPLES Gattuso et al., 2018, Frontiers in Mar. Sc. Multiple mitigation targets Steinacher et al., 2013, Nature Rogelj et al., 2016, Nature

  15. WP7: Providing added-value to decision and policy makers • Helena Martins, SMHI,DagmaraRusiecka mu STAKEHOLDER REFERENCE GROUP mu INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY BOARD mu • WP8: Data management • Maren Karlsen, Benjamin Pfeil group • WP9: Management and communication • DagmaraRusiecka, HegeHøiland (finances) mu • WP10: Ethics requirements • DagmaraRusiecka mu

  16. POLICY RELEVANCE ΔTemp Δrisk IPCC Reason(s) For Concern See: O’Neill et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3179 risk = (Probability of Events ) × Consequences

  17. IPCC Reason(s) For Concern See: O’Neill et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3179 “Risk is the potential for negative consequences, whereas impacts are the manifestation of that potential.”

  18. IPCC Reason(s) For Concern PARIS AGREEMENT See: O’Neill et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3179

  19. STAKEHOLDER REFERENCE GROUP (WP7) Overall goal is to maximise impact of the project. Specific goals are: 1. Combine stakeholder knowledge with the project results to shape the project’s outcome. 2. Support major international scientific assessments such as the IPCC. 3. Prepare results for decision and policy makers towards management of the Earth system. 4. Make project results easily accessible for stakeholders. IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch. 19 • “Risk is the potential for negative consequences, whereas impacts are the manifestation of that potential.” • O’Neill et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017

  20. IPCC AR6 LITERATURE CUT-OFF DATES

  21. … UN Climate Summit 23.09.2019, The Guardian

  22. 1983 World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), • chaired by Gro Harlem Brundtland • 1987 report named Our Common Future coining the termSustainable Development: • ‘’development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs'' COMFORT Our common future ocean in the Earth system • Gro Harlem Brundtland is a Norwegian politician, who served three terms as Prime Minister of Norway (1981, 1986–89, and 1990–96) Wikimedia Commons

  23. It's not just what you're born withIt's what you choose to bear It's not how big your share isBut how much you can share And it is not the fights you dreamed ofBut those you really fought It's not what you've been givenIt's what you do with what you've got Thanks for supporting our work!!! We really appreciate it. D. Gaughan

  24. Thank you very much for your attention • www.comfort-project.eu

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