The May 29, 2008 AMS Webinar on a National Climate Service

1. The May 29, 2008 AMS Webinar on a National Climate Service Edward O’Lenic Chair, AMS Committee on Climate Services Chief, Operations Branch, NOAA-NWS-CPC

2. Announcement and Agenda The Committee on Climate Services (CCS) of the American Meteorological Society is sponsoring a webinar from 1:00-3:00 PM. May 29, 2008. FOCUS ISSUE: Community* Discussion of a National Climate Service (*private, government, and university sectors). The AMS is seeking feedback from the panel and audience about the roles and responsibilities of the sectors involved in producing and using climate information. Format: Webex conference, with a panel of 4, including: - Chet Koblinsky, Director of the NOAA Climate Program Office; - Paul G. Knight, President of the American Association of State Climatologists; - Bradley Udall, Director of the Western Water Assessment; - Steve Root, President, Commercial Weather Services Association (CWSA), and President and CEO of WeatherBank, Inc. Chet Koblinsky will have 20 minutes to talk about the formation of a National Climate Service. Each of the other panelists will have 10 minutes to make their points. The remaining time will go to a) panelists answering spontaneous questions from the audience, b) panelists answering questions submitted by the audience before the conference.

3. Role of NCS: connect climate science to decision-relevant questions, support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations. Partnership with stakeholders. • Miles et al, PNAS, October 13, 2006. Proceedings of the National Academy of the United States of America Built on three basic components: • Global Observations • Global Modeling • Global Research Centered on Users

4. Live Poll of Participants • Six questions were asked of users. The results were tabulated and fed-back to participants immediately.

5. 1. How would you rate your knowledge of plans for a National Climate Service? a.None 8/49 (16%) b.Some 24/49 (49%) c.Considerable 13/49 (27%) No Answer 4/49 (8%)

6. A National Climate Service will be: a. Good for me and my organization 43/49 (88%) b. Have no effect on me and my organization 2/49 (4%) c. Be bad for me and my organization 0/49 (0%) No Answer 4/49 (8%)

7. 3. In the United States science is: a. Highly regarded by the public 13/49 (27%) b. Given average credence by the public 32/49 (65% c. Mistrusted and looked- down upon by the public 0/49 (0%) No Answer 4/49 (8%)

8. 4. The process for planning a National Climate Service needs to be: a. Completely transparent 32/49 (65%) b. Partly transparent 13/49 (27%) c. Confidential 0/49 ( 0%) No Answer 4/49 (8%)

9. I: • Strongly support forming a National Climate Service 35/49 (71%) b. Am indifferent about forming a National Climate Service 10/49 (20%) c. Am hostile toward forming a National Climate Service. 1/49 (2%) No Answer 3/49 (6%)

10. I believe that weather and climate services should be: a. Privatized completely 0/49 (0%) b. A partnership among public, private and university sectors 44/49 (90%) c. A government-only set of Activities 2/49 (4%) No Answer 3/49 (6%)

11. What Climate Services are Needed? Western Governor’s Association (Jones, 2007): - More accurate, finer-resolution long range forecasts - Continued and expanded funding for data collection, monitoring and prediction - Partnership with state climatologists, RCCs, agricultural extension services, resource management agencies, state and local governments.

12. What Will We Do, Everyday, in an NCS?

13. What Will We Do, Everyday, in an NCS?DELIVERan Adaptable Set of Products and Services -Built on existing Operations Infrastructure

14. What Will We Do, Everyday, in an NCS?DELIVERan Adaptable Set of Products and Services -Built on existing Operations Infrastructure • The Climate Issue du jours, from extreme events to global climate change • Regionally-Downscaled Week 2 to Inter-Annual (ISI) Forecasts, decision-support products • Observed data and data-derived climate products • Real-time analysis and diagnosis • User interactions/questions • Re-Analysis • Research • Decadal-Centennial projections • Maintain the existing observing system • Implement new observing systems ………………….. • Data rescue

15. What Will We Do, Everyday, in an NCS?DELIVERan Adaptable Set of Products and Services -Built on existing Operations Infrastructure • The Climate Issue du jours from extreme events to global climate change – WFOs, RCC, SC, NDMC, USGS, CPC, NCDC • Regionally-Downscaled Week 2 to Inter-Annual (ISI) Forecasts, decision-support products - CPC, NIDIS, PRIVATE • Observed data and data-derived climate products - NCDC, RCC, USGS, PRIVATE, WFOs • Real-time analysis and diagnosis - CPC, NCDC, PRIVATE • User interactions/questions – PRIVATE, RCC, SC, NCDC, WFOs • Re-Analysis - EMC • Research - RISAs, NCEP, OAR, PRIVATE, Universities • Decadal-Centennial projections - NCEP, GFDL, PRIVATE • Maintain the existing observing system - NCDC, RCC, USGS • Implement new observing systems - NCDC, RCC, USGS • Data rescue - NCDC, RCC, PRIVATE

16. Need four basic components: • Global Observations • Global Modeling • Global Research • Product Delivery Centered on Users Delivery of products users actually want ties everything together. Proceedings of the National Academy of the United States of America

17. NOAA’s Climate Test Bed (CTB): Facilitating Delivery of Products and Services • Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. • Vision: To significantly increase the accuracy, reliability, and scope of NOAA's suite of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community. • Located at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Camp Springs, MD.

18. Bridging Research, Operations, Users ? Use it if you can Assumed User Needs Basic data and Forecasts GOVT. PROVIDERS Basic Research

19. Bridging Research, Operations, Users users ? Use it if you can Use refinement Assumed User Needs Intermediary Applications Products (CTB-RISA/PRIVATE/RCC/SC-SBIR) USER NEEDS IDENTIFIED Decision-Support Development REQUIREMENTS Technical Refinement Basic data, Forecasts Transfer User-Vetted products Transfer User-Vetted products GOV PROVIDERS (CPC/EMC) NCEP/NCDC/USGS CTB SUPPOPRT GOV PROVIDERS GOV OPS PRIVATE OPS R2O O2R O2R: Model Test Facility R2O: CTB Basic Research: Models, MME, Statistical Methods Basic Research

20. How to Maintain Long-Term Relationships Among Partners? • Ensure a continuous flow of requirements from users toward research. • Components closest to each other have the most in common and engage in active dialogue and iterative development. • Annual meeting among components • The only “permanent” member is the government. • May need a “Climate Extension” function, operated by the government.

21. Source: The Washington Post Outlook Section, July 13, 2008

22. Summary • Webinar held May 29, 2008, 1-3 PM. • 52 registered attendees, 4 speakers/panelists. • Overall very positive attitude among attendees. • Partnership and transparency desired. • Involving users in iteratively optimizing products needed. • Western Governors place forecasts, observations, partnership at the top of the list. • Model for R->O->U needs to allow iteration/partnership (R<->O<->U) • CTB helps avoid the “valley of death” between research and operations • Global-National-Regional observing system stewardship looms large. • 6 of top 20 news/media June 2008 sites were weather-related. 10s-100s of B$ at stake. Climate will only add to this.

24. Audience Questions • Q16: FROM Ryan Boyles: • The introduction noted that the Federal Government cannot provide climate monitoring networks at the local level, and that's where state and local levels involvement steps in. Does that then lead to a hodge podge of sensors, networks, and standards? • CHET: The NCS should help lead us in how we could build a national set of standards that partners or providers could work towards to meet. Climate standards must be rigorous if they are to aid in looking at the long term trends of extremes; this is probably a Federal Government function. • One consensus has it that the more data, the more sensors and the more locations of sensors, from many agencies and the private sector, the better; provided that they have metadata with a qualifier: e.g., some have said they would happily take a poorer quality observation in an area where there is no other data, or where the data have lower levels of quality reflecting the different functions that set the requirement for the observation. The concept is, “Flag all data that does not meet the standard and users can determine whether they wish to use the data.” The American Association of State Climatologists has teams specifically addressing that.

25. OBSERVING SYSTEM | MODELING CAPABILITY | PARTNERSHIPS These are where the biggest responsibility, expense, long-term risk, and rewards may lie.