National Weather Service Climate Services

1. National Weather Service Climate Services Marina Livezey (Timofeyeva) OFCM 2nd Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services and Supporting Research December 10, 2008

2. Outline • Needs and requirements • Programs and initiatives • Product suite and services (current and any experimental products/services) • Potential benefits • Challenges and gaps in products and services • Research opportunities underway and planned to meet identified gaps • Process for transitioning research into operational applications • Related training, education and outreach activities

3. “Past weather” data Climate guidance to national and local decision makers Information of climate variability and change physical mechanisms, predictability, predictions, and impacts Timely, continuous and reliable climate data Timely, continuous and reliable national and local climate forecasts Outreach activities, materials and trained staff Needs and Requirements

4. NOAA and NWS Climate Services Interagency Climate Office NOAA Climate Program Office Climate Board NWS NESDIS OAR NOS NMFS Matrix Link NCEP OCWWS Regions NCDC NCO,ESRL GFDL CSC, OCM, CWISE RCCs ARSCOs RISAs IRI EMC CPC CSD WFOs/ RFCs/WSOs Regional Manager FY 2003 Focal Points FY 2001

5. Needs and Requirements • NWS:provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States … for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure.... • CSD: Ensure NWS is equipped to develop and deliver an end-to-end suite of climate variability and change products through strategic planning, user engagement, data stewardship, policy development, integration of research and assessments, partnerships, outreach, and training. • CPC: Deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.

6. Needs and Requirements

7. Programs and Initiatives • National Climate Programs and Initiatives • Monitoring climate variability • Climate assessments and diagnostic discussions • Climate forecasts • Climate Test Bed • Regional and Local Climate Programs and Initiatives • Bridging climate user needs and product requirements • Climate observing system and data records • Local climate data and forecast products • Local climate outreach • Training climate services staff

8. Product Suite and Services:National • Extended Range Outlooks: (6-10 and 8-14) • Long Range Outlooks (Monthly and 3-Months) • Assessments: Hazards, Drought, MJO, Global Ocean • Special Outlooks: Hurricane, Winter, African Rainfall • Bulletins: Climate Variability, Stratospheric Ozone, Weekly Weather and Crop

9. Product Suite and Services:National Examples Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts • 3-Month Outlooks released monthly with 0.5 month lead for 13 3-month periods (categories: Above, Below, Near Normal and Equal Chances) • 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlooks released daily with 6/8 day leads (categories: Above, Below and Normal)

10. Product Suite and Services:Local Public interactive access to ““past weather • NOAA Online Weather Data (NOWdata): 9 products, 3900 sites, 9 variables, 3 time periods • Other online data products: • Last 3 month daily data • Last 5 year monthly/daily • This year record events • Last year monthly site, regional and state summaries

11. Product Suite and Services:Local Local 3 Month Temperature Outlooks: • Local information • Multiple user centric formats • Dynamic text interpretation • Benefits and limitations • Long term forecast evaluation • Trained staff support

12. Product Suite and Services:Local NWS local climate services support: • Standardized local offices web site: www.weather.gov/climate • Online data stewardship tools: xmACIS, Datzilla, ThredEx, etc. • Local Climate Forecast Products (L3MTO) online package and display • Outreach materials: factsheets, brochures, standard presentations, etc. • Defining a process of transition from climate user need to NWS climate product requirements

13. Product Suite and Services:Climate Change Issues • NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is 12.5 months for 3 month average temperature or total precipitation • NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local customers: • Fact sheets on Climate Change • Comprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Change • IPCC report facts • NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data, available local and regional climate changeproducts include: • Range of climate variability for climatology period and full records • Current rate of trends in climate variables • Impacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables • Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change: • National Climatic Data Center • Earth System Research Laboratory • National Oceanographic Data Center • Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

14. Potential Benefits • Seamless suite of climate products and services • National and local climate information • 24h 7days/week operational services • Growing understanding of climate users and product usability and applications

15. Challenges and Gaps in Products and Services • Barriers on the way for climate outlook use: products misinterpretation, lack of verification information, confusing and inconsistent language (Hartmann, 2002) • Skill is variable for different seasons, areas and forecast periods • Growing need for Climate Change information • Impacts and applicability of climate products

16. Research Opportunities CSD activities bridging NWS user needs and product requirements • Claes Fornell International (CFI) Group Surveys (2004, 2009) • Annual Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop (CPASW): March 24-27, 2009, Norman OK • Feedback option for local climate forecast products • Annual NWS local offices reporting of local climate users needs • Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISAs) findings and reports • American Association of State Climatologists (AASC) annual meetings

17. Development Opportunities • Regional Climate Services • Climate extensions initiatives • Regional user climate meetings and workshops • Local Climate Services • Reactive outreach: responding to specific user requests • Proactive outreach services: local meetings, media statements, workshops on special products, etc.

18. Process for Transitioning Research into Operations

19. Prototype is developed internally by science and outreach experts Informal WFO internal review, questionnaire of selected partners & customers Adjustment Experimental product is developed and enhanced by “Feedback” form Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions Adjustment Operational product is developed and enhanced by “Feedback” form Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions Adjustment Process for Transitioning Research into Operations Multi-tiered Approach in Incorporating Users Feedback

20. Training, Education and Outreach • Climate Services Training includes 2 courses and ~30 online distance learning modules • Local public education materials (factsheets, standard presentations, brochures) are available at any local offices