Constitutional Reform: Confrontation looms as Hong Kong consults

1. Constitutional Reform: Confrontation looms as Hong Kong consults April 2014 Michael E. DeGolyer Professor, Government & International Studies HKBU Director, Hong Kong Transition Project

2. 18 Dec 2013-1 Jan 2014 • 1007 permanent residents randomly contacted by telephone • +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval • Research conducted by Hong Kong Transition Project, supported by a grant from the Community Development Initiative

3. Is the System Working? Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with life in Hong Kong? 2003-04 vs 2014

4. Satisfaction with life in Hong Kong BY Age groups/BY Occupation Majorities dissatisfied under 40, Managers & Admin, Professionals, Students The skills we need & The future

5. Currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government From unrest, to no unrest, back to unrest? Circles same size, Same height Neither Tung nor Leung had majority satisfied

6. Satisfied with performance of SAR Government BY Age/BY Occupation Students highly dissatisfied Under 40s overwhelmingly dissatisfied

7. Satisfaction with performance of SAR Gov dealing with PRC Gov 2004 was peak dissatisfaction (when Tung did not leave) 2014 dissatisfaction same level as June 2004

8. Currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRC Govin dealing with HKSAR Affairs? Dissatisfaction with PRC peaked when Tung appeared supported by PRC Government, dropped as soon as Tung was clearly on way out

9. Satisfaction with PRC Gov handling of SAR affairs BY Age/BY Occupation Students, Associate professionals highly unsatisfied Under 40s highly dissatisfied

10. Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRC Govin ruling China? Unprecedented dissatisfaction since 1997 founding of SAR starts in 2010, with constitutional reforms

11. Satisfied with the performance of the PRC Govin ruling ChinaBY Age/BY Occupation Students & Associate Professionals high dissatisfaction rates Under 40s majority dissatisfied

12. Satisfied PRC Gov rule of China/BY Satisfied with life in Hong Kong/BY Satisfied performance of SAR Gov Even stronger correlation of Satisfaction with PRC rule of China and Satisfaction with SAR Gov performance Strong correlation of Satisfaction with PRC gov rule of China and Satisfaction with life in Hong Kong

13. Satisfied PRC rule of China BY Satisfied PRC handling of SAR affairs Stronger correlation between Satisfaction with PRC rule of China and Satisfaction with PRC handling of SAR affairs

14. Satisfied PRC rule of China BY Satisfied with CY Leung’s performance Strongest correlation of Satisfaction with PRC rule of China and Satisfaction with CY Leung’s performance

15. Satisfied with CY Leung’s performance BY Age/BY Occupation Extreme dissatisfaction levels for students, professionals, educators, associate professionals, clerks, managers & administrators Overwhelming dissatisfaction among those under 40

16. Satisfied with CY Leung’s performance BY Which party represents you best Fairness in policy-making BY satisfaction with Leung’s performance DAB very unrepresentative of public

17. How much do you believe that CY Leung:

18. How much do you believe CY Leung will implement fair Chief Executive election in 2017 BY Age/By Occupation Students extreme, other occupations very high disbelief Extreme levels of disbelief under 30

19. Why are so many people so dissatisfied and disbelieving?

20. Which problem of Hong Kong are you most concerned about now personally? Political issues highest level ever

21. Satisfaction with Gov performance on problem of most personal concern BY Age Dissatisfaction extreme under 40

22. Hidden burdens, unfairly distributed • Approximately what percentage of your personal income do you contribute to your parents? Burden of aging highest for under 30, but even 12% over 60 still help their parents Nearly half bear aging burden with little government help

23. Satisfaction with life in Hong Kong BY % Personal income contributed to parents Which party represents best, distribution of Satisfaction with life in HK. Radical parties attract most dissatisfied Dissatisfaction with life in Hong Kong significantly higher among most burdened

24. Which is the most appropriate description of you? Extreme volatility of identity indicates sharp values conflict underway

25. Which is the most appropriate description of you? Identity is clearly in flux (previous slide) and differs greatly generationally: “Generation GAP” profound across many variables

26. Which of these do you consider the most important to you personally to see protected and promoted? No mention in consultation document of international standards or pluralist nature/heritage of Hong Kong

27. Preference of Identity to Protect & Promote BY Age Under 40s much more preference of Hong Kong as pluralistic and international

28. Which party represents you best? Pre-2010 reforms consolidated parties; post 2010 shattered parties, consensus harder

29. Which party represents best, 2013-2014 Small rise in pro-government support, larger rise among pro-democracy groups

30. Which party represents best, BY Age Radical parties clearly dominate under 40s, especially 18-20 (and younger)

31. Which party represents best, BY Occupation Students clearly look to Radical Democrats in large numbers, but also large “no party” group

32. Which party represents best, BY Personal identity Radical parties/Hong Kong person identity becoming defined in opposition. A negative identity (“Hong Kong is NOT like China”)

33. 500,000+ Radicals? • About 20% to 25% of under age 40 look to People Power, League of Social Democrats, Neo-democrats, Labour Party, and hard line members of Civic Party as best representing them and protecting their interests. Under 40s show very high levels of dissatisfaction • About an equal proportion of those who say “no party” best represents them (1/3 of total, about 10% of population over 18) are equally dissatisfied as the group above. But they feel no one best represents them, thus no one “leads” them.

34. What changes to the System are supported?

35. Support direct election of Chief Executive Overwhelming and highest yet recorded support for direct election of the Chief Executive

36. Support direct election of all Legco members Highest level yet of strongly support for direct election of all Legco members

37. Support direct election of all Legco members BY Age/BY Occupation Extremely high support among administrators & managers, professionals, associate professionals, clerks and students Extremely high support under 40

38. Summary Table on Options Nearly two thirds oppose making the Chief Executive Election Committee, unchanged, into the Nomination Committee Abolishing FCs or reforming dramatically overwhelmingly supported

39. Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200 members as present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017? BY Age groups TREND Opposition has strengthened significantly since 2013, especially under age 60.

40. Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200 members as present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017? BY Occupations: Managers & Admin most strongly opposed

41. Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200 members as present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017? BY Which party represents you best DAB/FTU supporters’ views clearly NOT representative of majority

42. Support or oppose: Abolish FCs for Legco but keep them for the CE Nominating Committee BY Occupation TREND Sentiment starting to move against abolishing FCs for Legco but keeping for Chief Executive Nomination Committee, esp. among students, managers, professions

43. Support or oppose: Abolish only the traditional small circle 30 FC seats BY Occupation TREND Support to abolish up, esp. among students, assoc. professions and managers & admin

44. Support or oppose: Abolish FCs in all forms for all purposes BY Age TREND Support for complete abolition up, especially under age 40

45. Support or oppose: Replacing 30 small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC seats BY Age TREND Support down, opposition up for replacing FCs with “super seats” except among youth

46. Support or oppose: Replacing 30 small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC seats BY Which party represents best However, all political parties show majority support

47. Support or oppose: Replacing all FC seats with directly elected GC seats, half elected by first past the post single member districts, half elected like other geographic seats? BY Which party represents best TREND Support for replacing FCs with combination of half first past post, half proportional hit majority overall and in all parties

48. Support: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the number of voters in each constituency? Ending corporate voting, equalizing franchise in all constituencies strongly supported

49. Support: : increasing right to vote in small circle FC seats until all legislators represent roughly equal constituencies? BY Which party represents best TREND Increasing voters to match other FC Legco seat franchise no longer supported. Current Legco qualified voting no longer acceptable.

50. What will they do if nothing changes, or change is unfair? • Within the past year express concern or seek help from the following: Note drop in use of formal means of expressing concerns in 2002. Same drop in 2014. Indicates loss of confidence in normal means of policy feedback. Remove protests (PRO) & 2014 even lower than 2002.