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Peak oil and transport planning Transport Planning Society Inst. Of Chartered Engineers 22 nd April 2009 David Strahan odac@btconnect.com. Crisis? What crisis?. Source: Argus Media. Why they call it peak oil. Source: ASPO. Why oil peaks. United States. Source: IHS Energy.
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www.odac-info.org Peak oil and transport planning Transport Planning Society Inst. Of Chartered Engineers 22nd April 2009 David Strahan odac@btconnect.com
www.odac-info.org Crisis? What crisis? Source: Argus Media
www.odac-info.org Why they call it peak oil Source: ASPO
www.odac-info.org Why oil peaks United States Source: IHS Energy
www.odac-info.org When will it happen? Kenneth Deffeyes 2005 Colin Campbell 2010 Chris Skrebowski 2011 Energyfiles 2016 PFC Energy 2020 IEA 2030+ CERA 2030+ United States 2037
www.odac-info.org Why it matters • Oil supplies 95% transport energy • Agriculture critically dependent on oil and gas: producing 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of fossil energy. • Oil and gas provide all petrochemicals and lubricants • Oil price spikes cause recessions
www.odac-info.org Oil producers (98)
www.odac-info.org Post peak oil producers (64)
www.odac-info.org Couldn’t we find some more? Source: IHS Energy; Groppe, Long & Littell
www.odac-info.org Are we there yet? Source: IEA, Argus Media
www.odac-info.org Serial oil price spikes and slumps
www.odac-info.org Oil drives energy prices Source: John Hall Associates
www.odac-info.org Biofuels inadequate • ‘1st generation’: food crops In Europe/US, 5% road fuel = 20% cropland (IEA) • ‘2nd generation’: woody biomass World transport fuel demand = land area of China (Strahan)
www.odac-info.org Hydrogen Source: BMW
lastoilshock.com Fuel cells vs batteries BEV: 69% efficient WTW FCV: 24% efficient WTW UK BEV fleet means +16% electricity UK FCV fleet means +34% electricity Sources: WWF and E4Tech
lastoilshock.com OECD grid mix by fuel Source: John Hall Associates
lastoilshock.com HVDC-System 100% renewables via ‘Supergrid’ Source: Dr Gregor Czisch, University of Kassel
www.odac-info.org Small vehicles – electrification
www.odac-info.org Large vehicles – biogas Biomethane could provide 16% UK transport fuel (NSCA, 2006) Public transport consumes <5% Sources: NSCA, DfT
www.odac-info.org Lille: biogas in action
www.odac-info.org Biomethane benefits • Carbon reductions 75% - 200% • Energy security • Low duty (10p/L v 50p/L diesel) • Waste strategy • Digestate/fertilizer • Flexibility – bi-fuel vehicles • Air quality/noise
lastoilshock.com Mass aviation under threat Source: New Scientist
lastoilshock.com “This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess “…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell “This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP “A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes
www.odac-info.org Peak oil and transport planning Transport Planning Society Inst. Of Chartered Engineers 22nd April 2009 David Strahan odac@btconnect.com