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TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS ASSESSMENT

TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS ASSESSMENT. Presentation to the Texas Early Learning Council September 28, 2012. Project Partners. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Rice University. Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human Resources

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TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS ASSESSMENT

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  1. TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS ASSESSMENT Presentation to the Texas Early Learning Council September 28, 2012

  2. Project Partners Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Rice University Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human Resources LBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin

  3. Project Purpose To give the state and organizations serving young children a clear picture of the nature of the population of young Texans and the projected need for early education services

  4. Project Scope • Children ages 0 through 12 • All children needing child care • Population eligible for specific programs (e.g., Head Start, CCDF, Pre-K) • Formal early childhood education and school-age care providers and slots • Quality programs accredited by a national or state quality measure • State of Texas and smaller geographic areas Project conducted by only using existing data

  5. Research Objectives • Estimate total children under age 13 and those eligible for ECE and school-age care • Document current supply of ECE and SAC • Conduct a gap analysis based on these data • Generate a comprehensive needs assessment analyzing Texas’ early childhood education and school-age care system

  6. Objective 1: • Understand and estimate the total number of children under age 13 and those eligible for early childhood education programs

  7. Data Sources • U.S. Census Data, 2000 and 2010 • Populationof Texas children ages 0-12 • Texas Department of Health • Birth and death rates • American Community Survey, 2006-2010 • Socioeconomic characteristics of households

  8. Types of Results • Change in 0-12 population, 2000-2010 • Child population projections to 2015 and 2040 • Socioeconomic characteristics of households with children 0-12 in 2010 and projected to 2015 • All results presented for: • Entire state • Councils of Governments • Metropolitan Areas • Counties

  9. Key Population Findings • Nearly 5 million Texas children ages 0-12 in 2010 • Texas child population increased by 17% from 2000 to 2010 and accounted for over 50% of total US growth • Growth expected to slow from 2010 to 2015 but still larger than growth in any other state over past 10 years • Growth concentrated within metro areas and dominated by minorities • Hispanic children were 49% of total in 2010 and projected to make up 65% of growth to 2015 • 1.2 million children (24.9%) were living in poverty in 2010; 1.3 million (25.4%) projected to do so in 2015

  10. Population Distribution for Ages 0-12, 2010

  11. Percent Change in Total 0-12 Populationfor Texas Counties, 2000 - 2010 Counties, 2010 Percent Change <100 Persons in 2000 (3) Population decline (118) No change or less than 10% (69) At least 10% but less than State growth [17.2% (26)] Greater or equal to State growth [17.2% (38)] Source US Census 2000 and 2010, SF1

  12. Objective 2: • Understand and document the current supply across the state of Texas of formal providers of early childhood education programs and services and school-age care for children under the age of 13

  13. Supply Data Sources HHS ACF(Head Start) ERC(Pre-K, PPCD, IDEA) DFPS(child care licencsing)

  14. Types of Supply Results • Total unduplicated formal supply of early care and education and services • Specific supply results for: • Child care centers and family homes • Pre-kindergarten (public and private) • Military child care • Head Start and Early Head Start • CCDF subsidies • IDEA services (ECI and PPCD) • School-age care (partial) • Number of providers and number of slots for state, COGs, MSAs and counties if data available

  15. Key Supply Findings • Over 23,000 unduplicated providers of ECE in 2010 (centers, homes, public Pre-K and military) had capacity to serve nearly 860,000 children, ages 0-4 • 35% of providers and 67% of slots in licensed child care centers • 13% of providers and 26% of slots in public Pre-K • Other providers: • Head Start (1,260 providers serving 93,000 children) • Private Pre-K (1,064 providers serving 55,000 children) • CCDF (12,600 providers serving nearly 140,000 children) • ECI (56 providers serving 66,600 children) • PPCD (4,000 providers serving 42,000 children)

  16. 2010 Total Supply of Unduplicated Formal ECE Providers and Slots for Texas Children 0-4

  17. Total Unduplicated Formal ECE Slots Ages 0-4 by County, 2010 Slots < 100 (44) 100 – 249 (47) 250 – 499 (40) 500 – 999 (43) 1,000 or More (80) Includes child care centers, family homes, public Pre-K and military.

  18. Data Sources for Measuring Quality • Texas School Ready! • Texas Rising Star • National Association for Education of Young Children • National Association for Family Child Care • National Early Childhood Program Accreditation • National Association of Child Care Professionals • Association of Christian Schools International • National Afterschool Association

  19. Key Quality Findings • Every COG and MSA has at least one provider meeting some type of quality standard • Only 160 of 254 have at least one provider meeting any type of quality standard • Unduplicated list of quality providers by county could not be determined due to lack of common identifiers across data sources • Distribution by COG, MSA and county provided for TSR! And TRS

  20. Distribution of TRS Sites by County

  21. Objective 3: Conduct a gap analysis based on the completion of objectives 1 and 2 • Compare gaps in the demand for services and the available supply • Identify the gap between the need for high-quality services and the availability of such services

  22. Gap Analysis Key Findings • Unduplicated formal ECE slots in 2010 could serve 45% of Texas children 0-4 and 78% of children with working parents • Also measured for 0-2, 3-4 by COG, MSA and county • Model estimates for 20 largest counties of relative gaps (after controlling for family structure, employment and income): • Largest relative supply in Galveston, Webb and Bell counties • Smallest relative supply in Brazoria and Dallas counties • Current supply compared to population growth through 2040 • Service gaps estimated for specific programs (e.g. public Pre- K, Head Start) if possible but data gaps prevented full analysis • Biggest data gaps were in measurement of school-age care and linking quality information to provider information

  23. Proportion of Unduplicated Formal ECE Slots by Countyper 100 Children Under Age 5 in 2010

  24. Relative Supply of Current Care by Projected Child Population Growth from 2010 to 2015 for 20 Largest Counties

  25. Remaining Work • Complete comprehensive needs assessment • Currently refining conclusions and recommendations • Outside and peer reviews of all four reports • Technical review of all statistical work • Documentation of all data sets and methods • Public dissemination of findings • University of Texas LBJ School of Public Affairs • October 29, 2012 • Electronic publication of all reports

  26. For Additional Information Deanna Schexnayder Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human ResourcesLyndon B. Johnson School of Public AffairsThe University of Texas At Austin(512) 471-7891dschex@raymarshallcenter.org

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