ATHENS

1. ATHENS TRADEWINDS MARINE RISK FORUM 2009 11-12 MAY 2009

2. The Developing Claims Picture Shrinking World Trade, Falling Commodity Prices and What It Means For The Insurance Of The Greek Fleet By Mike Salthouse Director North Insurance Management Ltd

3. Introduction • The Big Questions: • The Extent of the Losses • Will the Global Slowdown Lead to • Lower Claims Costs?

4. The World Economy • The World Bank: • 1.7% Contraction in World Economy • 3% In Richest Economies • 6.8% Fall in Trade • OECD 2.7% Contraction in World Economy

5. The Boom – Increase in Size of Greek Fleet 2001-2008

6. The Boom - Clarksea Index, 1990 – November 2009

7. Claims Growth – Increase in Ship Usage

8. Increase in Commodity Prices - Wheat

9. Increase in Commodity Prices - Steel

10. Increase in Commodity Prices - Soyabeans

11. Value of Claims Per Ship 2002 - 2003

12. Claims Growth 2005 – 2008 • Cargo Claims up 130% • Collision Claims up 95% • People Claims up 75% • “

13. Claims Growth 85% of all claims caused by human error “.....poor level of risk evaluation, bridge team management, vessel speed, passage planning and visual observation”

14. Balancing the Books PREMIUM + INVESTMENTS = CLAIMS + EXPENSES ?

15. Additional Supplementary Calls

16. Claims Trends • Fewer Attritional Claims • Lower Loss of Earnings Claims • Lower Cargo Values • Greater Crew Availability • More Time for Maintenance

17. Claims Trends • Reduction in Costs – Maintenance • Reduction in Costs – Crew • New Legislation

18. Claims Trends – Pool Claims

19. Claims Trends – Value of Pool Claims 2002 – 2008

20. New Legislation • Athens Protocol • HNS Convention • Bunkers Convention • Wreck Removal • The Rotterdam Rules • Demolition

21. The Rotterdam Rules – Package Limitation

22. Conclusion “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Warren Buffet 2008