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The conditions required to establish natural gas infrastructures. Presentation by Mr. Robert Tessier, President and Chief Executive Officer CAMPUT 2005 May 2, 2005. A tensely-balanced North American gas market. TCF. Past forecasts. 30. TOTAL DEMAND U.S. & CANADA. 25. SUPPLY - CANADA.
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The conditions required to establish natural gas infrastructures Presentation by Mr. Robert Tessier, President and Chief Executive Officer CAMPUT 2005 May 2, 2005
A tensely-balanced North American gas market TCF Past forecasts 30 TOTAL DEMAND U.S. & CANADA 25 SUPPLY - CANADA 20 15 $ U.S. SUPPLY - U.S. 8 6 10 4 PRICE OF GAS, $/MMBTU 2 5 0 0 1990 1995 2000 1985
Liquefied natural gas: a diversification opportunity for the Northeast Proposed terminals Existing terminals
Two key development factors Time • Development periods of 5 to 7 years are necessary • A sector where just in time is impracticable • Better be too soon than too late Capital • New infrastructure requires major capital • The number of players is limited • An investment environment with the least uncertainty is favoured
Leveraging our geographic advantage Proposed terminals Existing terminals Near the coast Near the markets
Three issues at stake • Location of infrastructure • Regulatory framework • Long-term commitments
The location: concept phase OPTION 1 OPTION 2 OPTION 3 OPTION 4 Harbor-indutrial zone Options Lévis Beaumont
Challenges of the preliminary consultation • The promoter must consult the public very early in the formulation of the project • The site studies are still in their infancy • The information on the project is general • The community’s questions quickly become specific • The promoter can’t have the answers • The public is unhappy and suspicious • An environment conducive to disinformation • The dangers of slip-ups are great
Two main conclusions • Governments and industry must raise public awareness about the crucial importance of energy infrastructure • A long-term effort • The regulatory agencies must be involved from the very beginning in the consultation process • Objective third party to explain the entire regulatory review process (environment, safety, etc.) • Meetings with the public and the key entities • (e.g.: city council)
Regulatory framework • The inherent project development risks are known and accepted by the promoters • The multiplicity of overlapping government regulations generates additional uncertainty • Development harmonization solutions: • Structuring of the regulatory procedures • Smart regulation • Still to be done : simplify the regulatory framework • Precise rules, known from the outset
Long-term commitments • Infrastructure = $$$ = Long-term horizon • The past 20 years: • An increasingly efficient, open and deregulated industry • Proliferation of players, reign of the spot market • Increasingly complex financial market • Recent developments • Collapse of Enron et al • Limited number of players with acceptable credit ratings • Entry of the banks: financial and physical markets
GNL: Long term integreted players Natural gas production Liquefaction Shipping Import Terminal Other LDCs and market players 0,50 $ - 1,00 $ 0,25 $ - 1,00 $ 0,25 $ - 0,50 $
Conclusion Long term commitments from every players of the LNG chain, including LDCs, are a must.