Modeling Overview For Barrio Logan Community Health Neighborhood Assessment Program

1. Modeling OverviewFor Barrio LoganCommunity HealthNeighborhood Assessment Program Andrew Ranzieri Vlad Isakov Tony Servin Shuming Du October 10, 2001 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

2. Modeling OverviewFor Barrio Logan • Modeling Protocol • Local emissions near Barrio Logan • Microscale modeling results at Barrio Logan • Inhalation Risk at Barrio Logan • Status of Model Performance (Microscale and Regional) • Future work

3. Conceptual Modeling Protocol for the Neighborhood Assessment Program • Modeling working group includes more than 40 participants from government agencies, universities, industry, and environmental groups. We share information, discuss the modeling approach and technical details at group meetings. • The modeling protocol has undergone a peer review process. Mr. John Irwin, Dr. Michael Kleeman, Dr. Christian Seigneur, Dr. Akula Venkatram • Comments from the peer review group are incorporated into the protocol.

4. Objectives of Modeling Protocol • develop and evaluate methodologies to estimate annual average concentrations of various pollutants released from multiple sources at the neighborhood scale • recommend a method to perform neighborhood assessments

5. Size of Modeling Domain • Micro-scale (Neighborhood scale) modeling - receptors located near emission sources, i.e., meters to few kilometers from the sources • Regional scale modeling - source and receptor distances of several kilometers, to hundreds of kilometers, to the size of air basins

6. Air Toxic Pollutants To Be Modeled • Micro-scale modeling - more than 100 pollutants, including: Acetaldehyde, Acrolein, Acrylonitrile, Arsenic, Benzene, Beryllium, 1,3-Butadiene, Cadmium, Chloroform, Hexavalent Chromium, Ethylene Dibromide, Dioxin, Diesel PM, Formaldehyde, Hydrazine, Lead, Manganese, Methylene Chloride, Mercury, Nickel, (PCBs), Perchloroethylene, Trichloroethylene, Vinyl Chloride • Regional modeling - 30 pollutants: Acetaldehyde, Acrolein, Arsenic, Benzene, Beryllium, 1,3-Butadiene, Cadmium, Carbon Tetrachloride, Chloroform, Diesel PM, Ethylene Dichloride, Ethylene Oxide, Formaldehyde, Hexavalent Chromium, Iron, Lead, Manganese, Mercury, Methylene Chloride, MTBE, Nickel, o-Dichlorobenzene, p-Dichlorobenzene, Perchloroethylene, Styrene, Toluene, Trichloroethylene, Vinyl Chloride, Xylenes, Zinc

7. Micro-scale Models to Estimate Annual Concentrations • Traditional Models • ISCST3 - U.S. EPA regulatory model • CALINE - U.S. EPA approved model for line sources • Advanced Models • AERMOD - recommended as replacement for ISCST3 • CALPUFF- recommended model for complex terrain and for long-range transport • New and Emerging Models • Lagrangian particle dispersion model - state-of-the-science short-range model that estimates concentrations at scales of meters to tens of meters from a source

8. Input Data For Micro-scale Modeling • meteorology (hourly surface observations from local airports and on-site measurements) • point source emissions (including some traditional “area wide” sources, e.g. dry cleaners) • mobile source emissions (hourly traffic volumes and emission factors) • source configurations (e.g., stack heights) • receptor locations

9. Regional Models To Estimate Annual Concentrations • Traditional Models UAM (Urban Airshed Model) - used for air quality planning • Advanced Models Models-3 - state-of-science model developed by U.S. EPA

10. Improvements to Regional Scale Modeling • Incorporate air toxic chemistry • Apply over air basin(s) using an entire year of data for meteorology and emissions • Estimate annual concentrations due to transport of pollutants from distant sources or air basin(s) that contribute to neighborhood areas

11. Inputs For Regional Scale Modeling • Development of Regional Emissions Inventory • Update databases to reflect seasonal variations in emissions and update toxic emissions as well • Utilize latest version of EMFAC2000 to estimate motor vehicle emissions • Development of Meteorological Inputs for Regional Air Quality Models • CALMET - a diagnostic model that requires observational data for winds and temperature • MM5 - an advanced state-of-science prognostic meteorological model to simulate winds and temperatures

12. Model Performance Evaluation • A scientific process to ensure models are working properly and are estimating reliable concentrations • Compare model estimates of concentrations with observational data • Follow the procedures identified in ARB's Technical Guidance Document on modeling. • Standard statistical techniques such as bias and gross error will be calculated for annual model estimates of concentrations as well as for monthly and seasonal averaging times

13. Databases For Evaluating Model Performance Micro-scale models: • Conduct a field monitoring study to collect a database for short-range dispersion in urban neighborhood areas • Field study includes release of a tracer gas, bag sampling and continuous monitoring of the tracer gas, and meteorological measurements which include six sonic anemometers and a mini-sodar • Sampling will be conducted over a one week period for four seasons of year at several sites

14. Databases For Evaluating Model Performance Regional Models: • Use routine meteorological and air quality (criteria and toxic) data collected by air districts and ARB • Utilize data collected from recent studies (SCOS97 and CRPAQS/CCOS) and other data gathered from special monitoring studies

15. Recommendations From Study • Identify which micro-scale and regional models are best suited for assessing neighborhood impacts • Develop recommendations for guidelines, including technical protocols and methodologies to scientifically justify the basis to determine the cumulative impacts posed by air pollutants at the neighborhood-scale • Share modeling results and recommendations with U.S. EPA and other interested groups

16. MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION A scientific process to ensure models are working properly and predict reliable concentrations

17. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan • Tracer Experiment conducted from August 21-30, 2001 • Hourly SF6 concentrations sampled at 50 sites • Tracer released at NASSO during daytime from 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. • Mobile van sampled continuously to measure crosswind SF6 concentrations • Mini-sodar to measure vertical winds up to 200m at 5m resolution • Six sonic anemometers to measure surface level winds and turbulence

18. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

19. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

20. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

21. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

22. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

23. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

24. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

25. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

26. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

27. Microscale Tracer Experiment at Barrio Logan

28. Status of Performance Evaluation – Microscale Tracer Data • Contractor is conducting QA analysis on data sets to assure quality data • ARB evaluating non-QA data for SF6 and meteorology • Not all meteorological data are currently available (sonics) • Conducting “preliminary” data analysis

29. Status of Performance Evaluation – Microscale • ARB/UCR are conducting preliminary modeling to assist in QA work and provide “fast track” modeling results • ISCST3 • AERMOD • CALPUFF • UCR

30. Status of Performance Evaluation – Microscale Meteorology from Logan HS ( sodar ) • Preliminary results from data analysis and model performance - ISCST3 results Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

31. Status of Performance Evaluation – Microscale • Preliminary modeling results: CALPUFF 08/21/01, 11 a.m. Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

32. Status of Performance Evaluation – Microscale • Preliminary results - comparison of ISCST3 results with observations (selected days/hours) Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

33. Status of Performance Evaluation – Microscale • Preliminary results - comparison of ISCST3 results with observations (all data) Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

34. Status of Performance Evaluation – Microscale • EPA results - comparison of ISCST3 results with observations (Kincaid SF6 database) Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

35. Status of Model Performance Evaluation - Regional • Defined modeling domain • Generated 3-dimensional winds and temperatures for 1998 using MM5 for input to CMAQ • Generated 3-dimensional winds using CALMET for input to UAM • Development of gridded emissions inventory • Initial testing of CMAQ to estimate secondary pollutants • Comparison of CMAQ results with other models and observations Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

36. Future Work • Conduct another SF6 tracer experiment at Barrio Logan and VOC sampling at Barrio Logan (November 15 – January 15, 2002) • Evaluate microscale modeling for summer and winter time conditions at Barrio Logan • Recommend models for neighborhood assessment MICROSCALE MODELING Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

37. Future Work • Assess accuracy of emission inventory estimates at Barrio Logan • Generate gridded hourly emissions inventory for 1998 for input to CMAQ and UAM EMISSIONS INVENTORY Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

38. Future Work • Evaluate regional performance for CMAQ and UAM for hourly, 24 hour, and annual averaging times • Predict spatially resolved annual ambient toxic concentrations for southern California REGIONAL MODELING Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote