Overview Community Health Modeling Working Group Meeting

1. OverviewCommunity Health Modeling Working Group Meeting Tony Servin, P.E. Modeling Support Section Planning and Technical Support Division May 6, 2003 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency EJVOverview_050603.ppt

2. Overview of the Day • Overview of the Neighborhood Assessment Program and Cumulative Assessment • Technical issues to be studied with the Wilmington Protocol • Regional modeling results for Southern California • Method to assess cumulative impacts at a neighborhood scale anywhere in the state • Open discussion • Your feedback

3. Policies & Actions

4. Environmental Justice Policies and Actions • Adopted by the California Air Resources Board, December 2001 • Policy V • “It shall be the ARB’s policy to assess, consider, and reduce cumulative emissions, exposure, and health risks when developing and implementing our programs”

5. Environmental Justice Specific Actions • Regional maps showing estimated cancer health risks (e.g., ASPEN) • Regional maps showing air pollution emission sources (e.g., CHAPIS) • Develop tools for assessments of cumulative emissions, exposure, and health risk on a neighborhood scale and provide maps showing the results at the neighborhood level. (New Statewide Risk Modeling and Maps)

6. Investigative Work

7. Legend Current Modeling Protocol Component of Modeling Model Evaluation Component Proposed Product Cumulative Risk AssessmentTool NAP Modeling Approach Statewide Modeling Protocol Input Data Requirements Emissions and Meteorology Wilmington Modeling Protocol • Model Evaluation • Inventory Data Evaluation • Sensitivity Studies • Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies • Toxics Monitoring • Regional Modeling Evaluation • Work Group Evaluation Microscale Modeling RegionalModeling Barrio Logan Modeling Protocol Integrated Results Risk Assessment Model Strengths and Limitations Updated NAP Modeling Protocol Independent Scientific Peer Review Mapping and Visualization

8. Plan • Conduct refined air quality modeling simulations of toxic emissions for cumulative sources • Microscale (Neighborhood scale) Distances • Regional Distances • Bridge these actions to an approach feasible for any location in the State

9. Emissions and Meteorology Microscale (Neighborhood) Modeling Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Legend Current Modeling Protocol Component of Modeling Proposed Product Neighborhood Assessment Program Approach

10. Pilot Studies • Microscale - Estimate neighborhood cumulative air pollutant risk for two case studies • Barrio Logan • Wilmington • Regional - Estimate regional air toxic risk for Southern California

11. Emissions and Meteorology Emissions and Meteorology Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling Status • Emission Inventory Development • Regional (Southern California only) • Microscale (Barrio Logan) • Microscale (Wilmington under development) • Meteorological Development • Regional (Southern California only) • Microscale (Barrio Logan) • Microscale (Wilmington under development) Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization

12. Emissions and Meteorology Microscale Modeling Barrio Logan - Pilot Study Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling • Enhanced Emission Inventory • Evaluating Performance of Four Microscale Dispersion Models • Obtained Preliminary Model Results (50 m resolution) • Conducting Model Evaluation (Toxics & Tracer Monitoring) Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization

13. Emissions and Meteorology Microscale Modeling Wilmington - Pilot Study Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling • Identified in MATES-II • Freeways, Refineries, Port, Local Traffic, Manufacturing, Local Facilities • Under Development Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Wilmington (source: MATES-II, pg. ES-12)

14. Ventura San Bernardino Los Angeles Riverside Orange San Diego Mexico Emissions and Meteorology Regional Modeling Southern California - Pilot Study Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling • SCOS domain (4 km grid resolution) • Larger than MATES II Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization

15. Emissions and Meteorology Integrated Results Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling Microscale Impacts + _Regional Impacts Total Impacts Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Careful to understand double counting of emissions

16. Emissions and Meteorology Risk Assessment Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling Preliminary Results - Barrio Logan • Microscale only • All toxics • Inhalation only Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization

17. Emissions and Meteorology Risk Assessment (cont.) Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling Preliminary Barrio Logan Findings • Diesel PM is major contributor to inhalation risk (DPM non-measurable) • Facility risk similar to HRA risk • Microscale model generally underpredicts observations at Logan Memorial • Need to supplement microscale evaluation with regional background evaluation Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization

18. Verification of Model Results

19. Model Performance Input Data Requirements • Model Evaluation • Inventory Data Evaluation • Sensitivity Studies • Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies • Toxics Monitoring • Regional Modeling Evaluation • Work Group Evaluation Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

20. Input Data Requirements Model Evaluation • Model Evaluation • Inventory Data Evaluation • Sensitivity Studies • Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies • Toxics Monitoring • Regional Modeling Evaluation • Work Group Evaluation • Inventory Data Evaluation • Iterative process • Sensitivity Studies • Uncertainty Analysis • Begin with most sensitive pollutants to risk (e.g., diesel PM and gasoline stations) Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

21. Input Data Requirements Tracer Studies • Model Evaluation • Inventory Data Evaluation • Sensitivity Studies • Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies • Toxics Monitoring • Regional Modeling Evaluation • Work Group Evaluation • Needed to establish Microscale model performance • Logan Memorial (Winter & Summer) • Preliminary Results • Contractor analyzing data • Wilmington under development Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

22. Input Data Requirements Toxic Monitoring • Model Evaluation • Inventory Data Evaluation • Sensitivity Analysis • Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies • Toxics Monitoring • Regional Modeling Evaluation • Work Group Evaluation • Logan Memorial Ambient • 17 months (Oct. 1999 - Feb. 2001) • Barrio Logan Intensive • Special study (Five sites) • Two weeks of data (Dec./Jan. 2001/2002) • Data being analyzed • Wilmington Ambient • 13 months (May 2001 - July 2002) • Wilmington Intensive • Planning stages Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

23. Input Data Requirements Regional Model Performance Evaluation • Model Evaluation • Inventory Data Evaluation • Sensitivity Analysis • Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies • Toxics Monitoring • Regional Modeling Evaluation • Work Group Evaluation • Procedures well established for episodic hourly concentrations of O3 • No established metric for 24-hr or annual average concentrations of toxics Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

24. Input Data Requirements External Review • Model Evaluation • Inventory Data Evaluation • Sensitivity Studies • Uncertainty Analysis • Tracer Studies • Toxics Monitoring • Regional Modeling Evaluation • Work Group Evaluation • Working Group Evaluations • 55 participants on mailing list • Govt. (District, US-EPA, OEHHA) • Independent Scientists • Environmental Groups • Industry Representatives • Last meeting Sept. 12, 2002 • Independent Scientific Peer Review Group for Barrio Logan Protocol • Mr. John, Irwin, US-EPA • Dr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC Davis • Dr. Christian Seigneur, Atms. and Env. Research, Inc. • Dr. Akula Venkatram, UC Riverside Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

25. Continue to Technical Issues Investigated in Wilmington Study