1 / 8

Estimating future household formation

Estimating future household formation. Monday 16 th December 2013 London School of Economics. Long term trend in household size. Census 2011 found more people but fewer households than expected. No fall in household size, despite ageing population What were the changes?

hamish
Download Presentation

Estimating future household formation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Estimating future household formation Monday 16th December 2013 London School of Economics

  2. Long term trend in household size • Census 2011 found more people but fewerhouseholds than expected. • No fall in household size, despite ageing population • What were the changes? • A new trend or a blip? Source: Christine Whitehead, LSE and CCHPR, October 2013 2

  3. Differences between Trend Projection and Actual Change 2001 – 2011 Source: Christine Whitehead, LSE and CCHPR, October 2013, who noted that all ages are involved in these changes.

  4. Candidate causes of changed household formation • Age structure? • eg. Elderly: smaller households; men living longer; care in the community. • Immigration? • Recent immigrants form fewer households during their first years; • Housing market, personal income? • lack of affordability deters entrants to housing market • Educational finance • Delays leaving home • Benefits changes? • Cap deters large households • Bedroom tax encourages large households • Temporary (5 years) or structural (twenty years)

  5. Projections of households of each type = population projections x household formation rates projected for each household type • Scotland and England • Future households of type t = sum over all ages (sex, marital status, couple status): Future household population by age x Future household representative rate for type t • Wales and Northern Ireland • Future households of type t = [sum over all ages: Future household population by age x Future household membership rate for type t] / average household size of type t

  6. The political economy of household projections • House-building requires permission • Permission involves regulation of land release • Land release is argued through a balance of social/environmental factors and housing need • Housing need is estimated from projections of households

  7. Newly arising demand and need for housing in England, 2011-31(thousands) (Whitehead) Household projection Relatively minor allowances? Housing land needed Source: Adapted from Christine Whitehead, LSE and CCHPR, October 2013

  8. Comments • Allocation of housing land allocation affects all services • Needs of the population in new housing • National need for housing => decisions over where the land is made available • Major players: local residents, housing developers • Household formation estimates reflect effective housing demand • Should household projections reflect need or demand for housing? • How should projectionists advise their projections are used? • Revision after census has been too great, though foreseen • How to reduce it in future?

More Related