Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation

1. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations

2. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations European Commission – FP7 3.5 M€ 48 months: 1 Oct 2010 – 30 Sep 2014 Key Words Climate Predictions; Climate Impacts; Vulnerabilities; Adaptation; Case Studies; Agriculture and Water Resources; Socio-economic analysis

3. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation ClimAfrica Rationale Urgent international need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools to better understand and predict climate change in Africa, assess its impact on African ecosystems and population, and develop the correct adaptation strategies. ClimAfrica Objectives 1- Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to SSA; 2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of SSA livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture; 3- Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate; 4- Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies; 5- Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system (for food security, risk management, civil protection) 6- Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in SSA and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.

4. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation • Partnership • 18 institutions: 9 Europe • 8 Africa • + FAO • Project coordinator: CMCC – Italy • www.cmcc-org • Local • case studies: • Burkina Faso • Ghana • Togo • Sudan • Ethiopia • Congo • Tanzania • Kenya • Malawi • South Africa  

5. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation

6. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP2 climate predictability and forecasts WP7 project management WP8 dissemination WP6 case studies WP1 past climate variability WP3 climate impacts WP5 Socio- economic implications WP4 Medium-term warning system vulnerability, adaptation

7. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP1 - Africa is a hotspot of interannual variability of the global land carbon cycle Jung et al. In press

8. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Recent trends in the water cycle of Africa WP1 – Past Climate Variability Collection and synthesis of various data streams that diagnose the variability of the climate, in particular the water cycle, and the productivity of ecosystems in the past decades. The data streams range from ground based observations and satellite remote sensing to model simulations. WP1 aims at providing consolidated data to other WPs in ClimAfrica, and at analyzing the interactions between climate variability, water availability, and ecosystem productivity of Sub-Saharan Africa. Jung et al. 2010

9. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation • WP1 – data already available internally to the project • (from Martin Jung and Uli Weber, MPI) • daily meteorology from 1901-2010 • soil texture • historical land cover/use from 1901 till 2007 • albedo for 2000-2010 based on MODIS • latent and sensible heat fluxes derived from upscaling eddy covariancedata (1982-2008, monthly) • monthly FAPAR from 1982-2010 based on AVHRR, SeaWiFS, MERIS • Expected data (soon): • Land use data (by PIK) • digital elevation model • meteodata update until 2030 based on Echam5 A2 • soil moisture data set (by VUA) • MODIS land surface temperatures and LAI • (all data are 0.5° and gap-filled if based on remote sensing)

10. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP2 - CMCC seasonal forecast and decadal prediction system Seasonal retrospective forecast for 22 years (1989-2010). Four six-month-forecasts per year, start dates 1st Feb, 1st May, 1st Aug, 1st Nov. Decadal predictions. Twenty-year-simulations, start dates 1990-1995-2000-2005-2010, November 1st. Simulations are performed by means of a global climate model initialized with the best observational products of ocean, land and atmosphere. Outputs provided: surface temperature Precipitation heat fluxes winds etc. East Africa

11. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Will the weather be favourable this summer? Warm Hot and Dry Cool and Wet WP2 Hot and Wet Cold and Wet

12. Coupled Model component Off line Initialization Tools Ocean initial condition production T & S - OI assimilation SOFA 3.0 (De Mey and Benkiran 2002) Bellucci, Masina, Di Pietro & Navarra, 2007. MWR Coupling Daily No flux adjustment Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CMCC Seasonal Prediction System Radiative forcings GHGs & SO4 Atmospheric IC from ERA-Interim Reanalysis Land Surface SILVA (Alessandri 2006, 2007) Atmosphere ECHAM5 (T63 ≈ 1.87°x1.87°) (Roeckner et al 1996, 2003) Spectral & Time interpolation INTERA (Kirchner, 2001) Coupler OASIS3 (Valcke et al, 2000) WP2 Sea Ice LIM (ORCA2) (Timmerman et al, 2005) Ocean OPA 8.2 (ORCA2) (Madec et al, 1998)

13. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP2

14. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP2 - Observations and global model skill for Eastern Africa Rainfall is most important climate element to model and prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) food security and water resources. Studies on rainfall patterns are already ongoing in many areas of Africa. Seasonal rainfall as percentage of annual total amounts for some seasons within Eastern Africa (from ICPAC, Kenya).

15. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP2 - Observations and global model skill for Eastern Africa Examples from several Global models: “Skill” basis for use of Global model in multi-model downscaling is quite high for East Africa sub-domain of ClimAfrica analysis and applications. Regional model: Regional model skill is reasonably good also PRECIS model will be a reliable source of detailed future projections within time window 2010-2090s.

16. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP3 - Climate impacts on key ecosystem services Quantifying sensitivity of vegetation productivity and water resources to seasonal, interannual and decadal variability in weather and climate Identify tradeoffs and areas of risk and vulnerability related to: water related hazards agricultural and pastoral performance soil degradation …using an agroDVM Current models in combination with recently developed datasets of land use and climate (from WP2) will be used to simulate crop yield and water resources. Simulations using short-term scenarios of future climate change (5-10 years) will be used to identify regional differences in the climate sensitivity of crop production etc. Scenarios for the African agricultural/pastoral sectors will also be made using longer model runs. Land Use Change CO2 emissions Climate Change Crop Model Work in progress: Model development and input data processing. Water use Crop yield

17. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP3 - Preliminary output GUESS with crop module: Hadley A2 scenario Potential NPP a. Maize b. Maniok

18. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP4 - Medium-term of Forecasting food and water vulnerabilities and adaptation mesures Establish a monitoring and forecasting warning system (based on ClimAfrica data) that produces prospective analyses about food insecurity and water crisis for at least the next 10 years. Fill the gap between seasonal scale predictions and long-term impact scenarios Identify the future Areas of Concerns (AoCs) and likely hotspots of vulnerabilities and food insecurity

19. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP4 - Natural Resources and Food Security – Systems at Risk (NaF-SAR) Integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options. A Risk framework is being used to provide a strategic context for the data and tools generated. The framework consists of 4 key stages: 1- Physiographic data related to hazard or environmental pressure; 2- Socio-economic data (people) 3- Risk assessment hot spotting based on (1) & (2) and the development of scenarios 4- Decision support.

20. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP5 – Socio-economic implications The social economic research group within CLIMAFRICA aims to provide a throughout economic assessment of agriculture and water sector, using, among others, a computable general equilibrium model, ICES, developed at the CMCC. The main advantage of this investigation approach is to depict the economy as a system where goods and factor markets interacts domestically and internationally. Price effects, competitiveness effects, demand and supply adjustments triggered by impacts on the agricultural sector can thus be properly captured. Nested tree Structure for the supply side ICES model Nested tree Structure for the demand side ICES model

21. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP5 Number of people exposed to climate-change induced water stress (IPCC AR4, 2007) Climate Change impacts on crops’ yields.

22. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP5 Climate change impacts by category and region (Bosello et al. 2009)

23. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP6 – Case Studies Characterize the environmental and socio-economic conditions of 9 different Sub-Saharan African regions distributed along a wide climate gradient (Ghana, Burkina Faso, Togo, Malawi, Republic of Congo, Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania). The studies carried out in these regions will provide field data to other work packages for empirical model development and mechanistic model parametrization. In addition, the synergies developed with the existing actors (managers and policy-makers, NGO’s, local farmer’s organizations, women’s associations, etc.) during these studies will allow to test and validate both the individual model outputs and the Medium Term Warning System in these regions. Tchizalamou site, Congo

24. Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation • Case Studies • The countries to be considered for the choice of the case studies have been identified by an analysis of the Sub-Saharan region based on the following five data sets, as indicators of environmental, climatic, agricultural and socio-economic conditions: • Global Ecological Zones (2001) - as indicator of ecologic conditions • Major farming systems of SSA(2001) (as indicator of farming systems) • GLC-2000 Based 1 km Global Land Cover - Africa (2004) - as indicator of land cover • Prevalence of stunting among children under five (2007) - as indicator of malnutrition, under nutrition, and poverty • Total renewable water per capita (actual) (1960-2007) - as indicator of water scarcity • The analysis has produced the following list of eligible countries: • 1) Burkina Faso, 2) Ghana, 3) Togo, 4) Sudan, 5) Ethiopia, 6) Congo, • 7) Tanzania, 8) Kenya, 9) Malawi, 10) South Africa