Dr. Eve Gruntfest Mark Workman Public Lecture

1. Reducing Losses from Natural Disasters: New Models that Integrate Perspectives from Science and Society Dr. Eve Gruntfest Mark Workman Public Lecture November 4, 2009 University of North Florida Jacksonville, FL Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

2. Social scientist in world of engineers and physical scientists • Geography professor at University of Colorado Colorado Springs for 27 years • Research on flash floods and warning systems Background - applied geographer Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

3. The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado 140 died July 31, 1976 • Who lived? • Who died? • Studied the behaviors that night • Career – “socio/hydro/ meteoro - logist” Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

4. Outline • 1. Examples of hydro-socio-meteor-ology at work • Weather & Society * Integrated Studies (WAS * IS) • Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM) • 2. Ten big hazard mitigation questions Clark County Regional Flood Control District http://www.ccrfcd.org International Flash Flood Laboratory Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

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6. Why WAS * IS? As an “add on social scientist” always a few people would say after a talk --- • “I want to do work that integrates meteorology and societal impacts BUT… • I don’t know how, and… • I don’t know anyone else who • does this kind of work” WAS*IS vision To change the weather enterprise by comprehensively and sustainably integrating social science into meteorological and hydrological research and practice

7. WAS*IS mission – building hydro-socio-metero logy capacity • Build an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers and stakeholders — from the grassroots up — dedicated to the integration of meteorology and hydrology and social science • Provide opportunities to learn and examine ideas, methods, and examples related to integrated weather-society work • Tools – qualitative methods, surveys, interviews • Concepts – speaking the same language, problem definition • Topics – intros to social sciences, vulnerability and resilience, roles of technology, communication and use of weather information

8. TheWAS*IS movement • Began as 1 workshop … now 7 • Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006) • Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) • Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) • Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007) • Summer WAS * IS (July 2007) • Summer WAS * IS (July 2008) • Summer WAS*IS (August 2009) • Integrated Warning Team Meetings inspired by WAS * IS • Springfield, MO December 2008 • Kansas City, MO January 2009 • Omaha, NE September 2009 As of November, 2009 - 198 WAS*ISers and hundreds of “friends of WAS * IS”

9. Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM) The National Weather Center – Norman, OK Funded by University of Oklahoma and NOAA www.sswim.org Collaborate with UNF Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

10. SSWIM’sthree goals To weave social science into the activities of the National Weather Center and elsewhere – not an “add –on” 2. To earn a reputation as a center of social science research and practice in weather and climate work 3. To revolutionize the research to operations equation – so it’s no longer top-down and all partners play equal roles – decision-makers, forecasters, product designers and researchers Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

11. SSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity building • … by increasing the appreciation of the value of qualitative as well as quantitative approaches including archival, ethnographic, and participatory methods • … through partnerships with public, private, and academic sectors, including students, practitioners, and policymakers across the spectrum of stakeholders Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

12. Big questions related to loss reduction We need more than better warnings to save lives We need to understand physical and social vulnerability Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

13. Not all hazards are equal 1. What are acceptable levels of risk? (wind speeds, storm surge?) Does Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale help? 2. How do we address nuisance events vs catastrophic events? AP Photo/ News & Record, H. Scott Hoffmann Greensboro, NC 6/03/2009

14. September 2009 Atlanta floods – Creeks were cresting FEET above historical record levels Height of the 1997 Fort Collins, CO flash flood Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

15. 3. If 28 people die in Florida or 1000 people in India – were the warnings successful? Research shows people continue doing what they think they need to do Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

16. How do we change “public education” paradigm – “right” message is one piece of the puzzle to change behaviors Research shows that drivers know there are warnings and where the hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than potentially dying while driving across flooded road Better information is NOT going to change behavior - only if boss closes work Publics use weather warnings as part of complex decision-making with many other considerations – THEIR BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses • Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

17. What we know about warnings – Public response components • Hear/receive • Understand • Believe • Personalize • Decide to act • Respond The warning process is complex Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

18. We need to focus on the folks who do listen to warnings and take appropriate action – not just those who die or who do not respond Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Source of Photo: http://press.weather.com/content/ss220-erin-midwest_flood-mike_rescue.jpg

19. Recent research findings • Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized -- there is no ONE PUBLIC • Different languages, capabilities, economic status • Weather research community has not focused on the individual needs of specific user • communities • Recognition that studies of • behavior may tell us more • than research on perceptions International Flash Flood Laboratory Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

20. 4. Are “cry wolf” & over-warning major problems? No measurement of “close calls” & “near misses” Events occur but not exactly in the warning areas or with exactly the predicted intensity How about new categories? New metrics? Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

21. Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls N= 1047 International Flash Flood Laboratory Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

22. Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding N = 1031 Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

23. Forecast verification is difficult in rural areas…. Alligators don’t answer the phone to report in about wind speed Verification/false alarms Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

24. 5. How can we assure robust communication on many levels? Where were maps & GIS, even telephones right after Hurricane Katrina? 6. Is there a BEST lead-time? Forecasts are often very good but people die – housing or transportation more important than forecast accuracy Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

25. 7. Which graphical images are most effective? How local? How real-time? Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

26. Gina Eosco SSWIM graduate student • Pursuing Ph.D. in Communication at University of Oklahoma • Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society • Master’s work at Cornell University • Interviewing forecasters, government officials & others about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

27. 8. How do people interpret probabilities &/or uncertainties? Different messages for different folks? Officials, Publics: tourists, elderly Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

28. No cone option? Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

29. West Nile Virus study epidemiology - public awareness example • Folks >50 years old most vulnerable to severe manifestations • Campaign for elderly NOBODY identifies themselves as “elderly” Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

30. 9. What should be policy regarding National Weather Service Calls to Action? LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY! Report from Hurricane IKE – Galveston, TX September 2008 ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

31. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE... ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. International Flash Flood Laboratory

32. Were "Calls to Action" too strong? How can we motivate people to evacuate who need to evacuate? Oceanfront restaurant September 2008– Galveston Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

33. 10. Can we reduce vulnerability with monstrous development pressures? Will the rebuilding cycle be stopped? 2009 Miami 1926 10. How can we reduce losses when vulnerability keeps increasing? Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

34. Jacksonville thenand now Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

35. Hydro-socio-meteoro-logy occurs when stovepipes are not the model Local Communities Private forecasters Environmental groups National Weather Service hydrologists Urban Drainage Districts Anthropologists Universities International Agencies Geographers Broadcast meteorologists Utilities Research Centers National Weather Service meteorologists International Flash Flood Laboratory Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

36. Before now, who were the most influential players in disaster mitigation? Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

38. Hydro-socio-meteoro-logists are NOT the same people with new models or gadgets!

39. New partners are changing the uni-dimensional culture with interdisciplinaryapproaches

40. THANKS TO the College of Arts and Sciences Mark Workman Fellowship Grant for hosting my visit - Gift from Stephanie & Gerald MitchellDr. Radha Pyati, Director of the UNF Environmental Center, for her vision and hard work to bring us all together todayApril Moore for efficiently handling the numerous detailsAll of YOU for coming All of YOU for coming International Flash Flood Laboratory Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

41. Photo by Stephen Morton/Getty Images Jacksonville August 22, 2008 Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice