Eve Gruntfest ecg@uccs Norman, OK September 15,2008

1. Eve Gruntfest ecg@uccs.edu Norman, OK September 15,2008 Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm Warnings: A collaboration between stakeholders, the National Weather Service & the Hazardous Weather Testbed

2. Motivation • Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next generation forecasting tools – better ways to communicate what we know in more sophisticated ways • WAS way – developing with little interaction with folks outside the lab • IS way – bring in forecasters, emergency managers, private sector to assure more socially relevant new tools

3. Participants Cross section of users - WAS * ISers & non WAS * ISers • Forecasters – representing a variety of geographic regions • Emergency managers – local & federal agencies represented • Private sector representatives moving in tandem with government • partners • Researchers – geographers, anthropologist with relevant expertise • Many National Weather Center folks – from labs, grad students • Others who want to see how this experiment develops - National • Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the • Atmosphere), NOAA research folks

4. What we know about warnings – Public response components Hear/receive Understand Believe Personalize Decide to act Respond The warning process is complex Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

5. A flash flood warning indicates a more serious threat than a flash flood watch 92% 8% n=1031

6. I take flash flood warnings seriously 92% 8% n=1017

7. False alarm questions: Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls N= 1047

8. Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding N = 1031

9. Warning project findings • Weather information requirements of each • user community are highly specialized • The weather research community has not focused • on the individual needs of specific user communities

10. WAS*IS CULTURE CHANGE weather & society * integrated studies www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/ Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program New culture change initiative since 2005

11. WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues “I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impactsBUT… I don’t know how & I don’t know anyone else who does this kind of work”

12. Weather & Society * Integrated Studies To change the weather enterprise so that social science is integrated into meteorological research & practice in comprehensive & sustained ways

13. What is WAS*IS? 1. Building an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders -- from the grassroots up --who arededicated to the integration of meteorology & social science Mostly early career folks! Capacity building –- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support

14. What is WAS*IS? Providing opportunity to learn & examine ideas, methods, & examplesrelated to integrated weather-society work • Tools– GIS, surveys, qualitative methods • Concepts –initiating & building relationships, many publics, end-to-end-to-end • Topics– risk communication, communicating uncertainty, vulnerability

15. The WAS*IS movement Originally envisioned as only 1 workshop 6 workshops so far Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (November 2005 & March 2006) Condensed 3-day NormanWAS*IS (April 2006) 2006 SummerWAS*IS (July 2006) AustraliaWAS*IS (January-February 2007) 2007 Summer WAS*IS (July 2007) Summer 2008WAS*ISheld August 8-15 Each workshop had a distinct character with common mission - Grand total of 172WAS*ISers

16. THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAYRecognizingWAS*ISers’talent & research--this is just a small sample • Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBulletin of the American Meteorological Society • problem definition • social science research agendas & • end-to-end-to-end process

17. End-to-End-to-End Researchers & Decision-Makers Private businesses Public (e.g., homeowners) Private land developers Local government elected officials Local government agencies (e.g., floodplain management) Private engineering consultants State & regional governments Federal government Professional associations Researchers Morss, R. E., Ralph, F. M., 2007 Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency manager during CALJET and PACJET-2001 Weather and Forecasting22 doi: 10.1175/WAF1001.1, 539-555 Morss, R. E., 2005 Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society86 181-191.

18. Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance--Provide what public needs/wants Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms and Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. Weather and Forecasting 22, 1140-1147

19. Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise with emphases on Better communication More geographic specificity Reduced confusion Partnership opportunities Melissa Tuttle Carr- The Weather Channel Kevin Barjenbruch- WCM Salt Lake

20. Considering social impacts in forecasts Craig Schmidt, Division Chief, Western Region Committed to Integrating societal Impacts into National Weather Service Types of questions to appreciate • Who will be impacted? • Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching, getting married? • What has happened up to this point? • Have there already been fatalities? • What are the TV stations saying? • Have earlier storms been “missed” ?

21. Extreme speed of watershed responses Extremely short lead-time for warnings Isabelle Ruin - National Center for Atmospheric Research Post- doc: Human exposure during flash flood -- New time/space analysis

22. New attention to weather & vulnerability Developing a cold warning system for livestock Tanja Fransen National Weather Service, Glasgow, MT

23. Karen Pennesi – Anthropologist - U of Western Ontario - Public perceptions of rain prophets & the Federal Weather Service in Brazil Predictions based on observations of insects, animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, & other natural phenomena Pennesi K (2007) Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 88, 7, 1033-1044

24. Randy Peppler – Leading efforts at U of Oklahoma in cultural studies of weather Geography dissertation topic Native American perceptions of weather information & how their stories change with migrations to different environments Interdisciplinary doctoral committees

25. SSWIM TeamUniversity of Oklahoma Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration @ The National Weather Center

26. Funding ~50% NOAA & 50% U of OklahomaThree main goals 1. To recognize & develop the existing social science activities at the National Weather Center 2. To builda strong integrated community of practitioners, researchers, & others to coordinate new projects & proposals that weave social science into the fabric of the National Weather Center 3. To assess the viability & interest in a new interdisciplinary Ph.D. program at the University of Oklahoma focused on the societal impacts of weather & climate change Focus on the willing – no one being dragged into these new projects Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

27. 3 year effort - personnel Dr. Eve Gruntfest geographer with 30 years experience as social scientist working with meteorologists 2 Ph.D. students working on interdisciplinary degrees - Dedicated to integrating social science into National Weather Center 1 full time Post-doc - Poised to take leadership of integrated social science activities Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

28. Post – doctoral scientistHeather Lazrus (moving to Norman in January) Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice • Environmental anthropologist • Extensive experience with NOAA Fisheries – conducting interviews in Alaska & Pacific Northwest • How climate change & new policies affecting livelihoods & outlooks • Dissertation research • 10 months living on TUVALU - small island nation in South Pacific – how are THEY dealing with sea level rise?

29. Kim Klockow Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice • Interdisciplinary Ph.D. - Meteorology & Economics, Finance • Master’s work in Professional Meteorology at OU • Interviewing farmers about how they value weather information from the Oklahoma mesonet • Ph.D. to focus on new ways to verify warnings

30. Gina Eosco Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice • Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at OU • Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society • Master’s work at Cornell University • Interviewing forecasters & government officials about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool

31. Workshop objectives 1. Introduce new technologies & directions to a diverse spectrum of potential future collaborators. 2. Define & address the broad spectrum of end-user needs from the super-user to diverse segments of the general public - focus on emergency managers, hospitals & individuals with higher vulnerability as well as private industry 3. Clarify & suggest new ways to communicate uncertainty & storm information - focus on graphic representations of storm timelines & uncertainty and communication through new & emerging technologies

32. Workshop objectives 4.Define new measures of success to assess service. Change concepts of storm verification including close calls & false alarms 5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the Experimental Warning Program design for spring experiments with stakeholders goals 6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the culture within all levels of the National Weather Service to facilitate operational implementation 7.Create visibility & consider possible future funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather Testbed activities & stakeholder interactions that help move The National Weather Service from WAS to IS

33. Ground rules • Advanced WAS * IS is not like any other workshop • NO Acronyms – except NOAA, HWT & WAS * IS! • Meet & mingle to foster new collaborations & projects • Best uses of our short time together • Breaks & meals • Keep everyone engaged – small groups • Minimized glazed eyeballs • Imagine yourself in other people’s shoes • Everyone’s opinion matters

34. Challenges of this bold experiment • We speak different languages • Please remember not everyone is a meteorologist • What are appropriate thresholds for risks, for geographic specificity, how to show? • WAS * IS framework is not common to all of us • Technically difficult • Using the scenario – Trade offs of anchoring this way - Hazardous Weather Testbed & other hazards • Inventing innovative ways to communicate uncertainty • Even forecasters need more than l week to understand what we are going to tackle in 2.5 days

35. Challenges of this bold experiment By tomorrow afternoon & Wednesday morning we will be evaluating options for moving forward • More workshops – with other Weather Center Laboratories, Groups? • More partners • Other big ideas! • Sustainable brain trust?

36. WAS * IS means changing from WAS to IS Becomes WAS social scientist! WAS physical scientist goes to WAS * IS workshop Moving from WAS to IS…is not an instant transition! WAS*ISers realize the joys of CONNECTING WITH STAKEHOLDERS

37. Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea analogyOne Man's Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School at a Time(Best selling book about building schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan) 1st cup- stranger 2nd cup- honored guest 3rd cup- you’re part of family… takes years With 172 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of other like-minded hard-workers Social science & policy are having our 2nd cup of tea with meteorology We’re not family yet – but we’re no longer strangers

38. The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model - Bring social science into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways Local Communities National Weather Service Private forecasters Urban Drainage Districts Universities Broadcast meteorologists Research Centers Meteorologists, Hydrologists Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

39. What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior toWAS*IS & SSWIM Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

41. WAS * ISers are NOT the same people with new technologies!

42. WAS*ISers & SSWIMersare changing the culture to integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways

43. WAS*IS CULTURE CHANGE weather & society * integrated studies www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/ Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program Thanks to Steve Koch, Lynn Maximuk, & Mike Hudson from NOAA Central Regional Team for funding this workshop Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

44. Thanks to all of you for coming & participating in this AMAZING opportunity LET’S GET our Advanced WAS * ISBREWING! We have BIG work to do