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Nuclear Energy’s 3 R’s Reawakening, Resurgence, Renaissance

Nuclear Energy’s 3 R’s Reawakening, Resurgence, Renaissance. Idaho Falls Rotary 3 January 2007 Harold McFarlane Deputy Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Programs, INL & President, American Nuclear Society. Reawakening. Revitalizing US Nuclear Energy. ~2000. Resurgence. 2006.

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Nuclear Energy’s 3 R’s Reawakening, Resurgence, Renaissance

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  1. Nuclear Energy’s 3 R’sReawakening, Resurgence, Renaissance Idaho Falls Rotary 3 January 2007 Harold McFarlane Deputy Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Programs, INL & President, American Nuclear Society

  2. Reawakening Revitalizing US Nuclear Energy ~2000 Resurgence 2006 Renaissance ~2020

  3. US nuclear generation status: 104 reactors100 GWe (20%)

  4. 20% 21% Nuclear electricity kept pace with demand 104 plants 112 plants

  5. The USA’s big nuclear slumber 1978 last nuclear plant order in US 1979 last 2 construction permits issues 1993 last operating license issued 1995 last 2 orders cancelled 259 Reactors ordered 124 Cancelled orders 132 Operating licenses issued 28 Plants shut down 104 Operating plants today 36 Nuclear Engineering programs terminated

  6. Security Price Climate Change The wakeup call America’s growing concerns

  7. Ownership consolidation a major factor in improved performance Nuclear power’s proven performance in US 92% Increases in capacity factor at nuclear plants in the last 15 years is equal to building 26 new 1,000-MW plants Source: Energy Information Administration/Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  8. Nuclear generates most of America’s emission-free electricity • Worldwide nuclear plants save more than twice the Kyoto carbon target annually. • In the US, nuclear plants avoid tons of emissions: • 3.4 million tons of sulfur dioxide • 1.1 million tons of nitrous oxides • 700 million tons of carbon dioxide Courtesy NEI and ENTERGY

  9. Better international alignment on nuclear nonproliferation goals …atoms for peace.2005 Nobel Peace Prize

  10. Nuclear energy has a strong safety record OSHA Accident Rates U.S. Manufacturing Accidents per 200,000 worker-hours U.S. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate U.S. Nuclear U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NEI

  11. 52% France Nuclear Energy widely favored in USA 68%

  12. We would advance about 3 yards per year! What about that nuclear waste: 2000 tons generated every year?

  13. The trigger for resurgence The Energy Policy Act of 2005 Incentives for clean energy technologies

  14. PRECURSORS License extensions for 47 reactors (+) Power uprating for 66 units since 2000 Consolidation from 50 companies to 27 Resurgence in the utility industry INCENTIVES • Loan guarantees • Production credit • Delay protection • Price-Anderson • Tax treatment LICENSING REFORM • Early site permits • Design certification • Combined license • Unfettered construction

  15. Significant financial investment • $5.4 billion for purchase of Westinghouse • $5.2 billion financial commitment to NRG to build 2 ABWRs at South Texas site • Multi-hundred million $$$ investment by major vendors (AREVA, Westinghouse, GE) in design certification by the NRC. • Private equity investment? (e.g., sale of BNFL America to Energy Solutions) • Continuous investment by utilities in upgrading all parts of current plants

  16. Designs competing for US market: Generation III & III+ AP-1000 • Standardized designs based on modularization producing shorter construction schedules • Passive or redundant systems to enhance safety • Easier to protect from terrorist attacks Gen-III+ ESBWR EPR Gen-III ABWR Advanced Boiling Water Reactor

  17. Undergraduate Student Enrollment Trends in nuclear engineering enrollment 1,831 DOE Investment ($ in Millions) Number of Students HBCU/HSI Student Enrollment DOE Investment 70 US DOE August 2006

  18. U.S. nuclear industry—first movers for new build31 notifications to Nuclear Regulatory Commission Maybe? ConstellationNine Mile Maybe? Maybe? ExelonTexas ConstellationCalvert Cliffs DominionNorth Anna Progress Energy Harris Amarillo PowerAmarillo Duke Carolina Plant TVA Bellefonte SCE&G V.C. Summer EntergyGrand Gulf SouthernHatch SouthernVogtle Progress EnergyFlorida Plant TXUMultiple EntergyRiver Bend NRGSouth Texas

  19. New Reactor Licensing Applications NRC’s estimated new plant licensing schedule NRG Energy – South Texas Project Hearing NuStart – Bellefonte (AL) Hearing Progress Energy - TBD (FL) Hearing North Anna ESP Hearing Unannounced Applicant COL Unistar EPR – COL 5 Unistar EPR – COL 4 Unistar EPR – COL 3 Hearing Hearing Hearing Hearing Duke ESP Duke ESP Hearing Hearing Dominion - North Anna (VA) Hearing Entergy – River Bend (LA) Hearing Grand Gulf ESP Hearing Unannounced Applicant ESP Hearing Amarillo Power Hearing An estimated schedule by Fiscal Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 AP1000 Program Review * Schedules depicted for future activities represent nominal assumed review durations based on submittal time frames in letters of intent from prospective applicants. Actual schedules will be determined when applications are docketed. Design Cert Hearing Progress Energy - Harris (NC) Duke - Cherokee (SC) Hearing Hearing South Carolina E&G-Summer Hearing Vogtle ESP First new plants 2014 Hearing Southern – Vogtle (GA) ESBWR Program Review Design Certification NuStart – Grand Gulf (MS) Hearing EPR Program Review Design Certification UniStar-Calvert Cliffs (MD) Hearing UniStar-Nine Mile Pt (NY) Hearing ABWR Program Review Unspecified FPL No Site or Vendor Specified Hearing 8/1/06 Clinton ESP Hearing

  20. 30-30 30% Nuclear in 2030 30 new nuclear plants in 2020?New Eurostaf report says 78 additional GWe by 2030

  21. Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) A blueprint for nuclear sustainability The true nuclear renaissance Source: www.gnep.energy.gov

  22. Non-electricity applications Hydrogen GM Oil sands Washington Post Clean water ORNL

  23. 20 t 4% enriched U 140 t U tails 160 t U 20 t 4% enriched U 50,000 t ore (0.32%) 0.2 t plutonium 18.9 t uranium 20 t spent fuel 0.9 t waste in ~5 t glass; 6 t radioactive hardware WNA

  24. Minimum conditions for a renaissance • Continued safe and efficient operation of existing nuclear power plants • Complete license extension and power uprate • Construct, license and operate new units • Reestablish industrial base • Create a 21st century workforce • Maintain public approval • Complete the fuel cycle—get green • Successful research, development and demonstration of advanced technologies to establish global leadership

  25. Reawakening Resurgence Renaissance US Nuclear’s 3 R’s We are here • Outstanding performance • License extensions • Power uprates • Climate change • Energy security • New LWR plants • Yucca mountain license • Fuel cycle policy • Rebuild infrastructure • US technology leadership • Gen-IV reactors • Recycle

  26. Idaho Falls Rotary That concludes our slide show. Thanks for watching. Nuclear Energy’s 3 R’s Reawakening, Resurgence, Renaissance Harold McFarlane

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