INTEREST meeting Rothamsted,October 2004

1. INTEREST meetingRothamsted,October 2004 Indicators and models: Tools for ecosystems management Margarida Cardoso da Silva LNEC-Lisboa

2. Structure of the presentation • Need of management • Management methodology • Instruments • Indicators - • Concepts, variables • Evaluation criteria • Conceptual models • Building indicators • Models – concept, objectives, types, variables • Building a model - method • Examples

3. Need for management • Growing concern on use of natural resources • Sustainability relies on strategic management • Management goals: • Protection – to preserve human investment and defence against accidents and natural disasters. • Conservation – to guarantee the preservation of physical and biological domains, productive and diverse with an intrinsic value as ecosystem • Resource management - to harmonize conflicting and competitive uses

4. Management Methodology Identificationand analysisof problems • General methodology, function of: • The type of ecosystem • The issues to address • Includes a phase of: • Planning, • Implementation • Revising. • Uses management instruments Strategicobjectives Sustainability GoalsOperationalobjectives Objectives Definition ofpriority of action Instruments Strategies Operational plan Performanceevaluation Revisionof the plan

5. Managementinstruments Regulatory -institutional measures Political Legal Administrative Economic - the existence of financial stimuli and the possibility of voluntary action Technical and scientific - rely on scientific knowledge Environmental indicators (characterization, monitor progress and effects of management action) Modeling techniques Diagnosis - support understanding of processes Prognosis - forecast effects of changing pressures on the state of the ecosystem Geographical information systems(geo-referenced representations of the ecosystems, of their context and uses, and of their characteristics

6. Environmental indicatorsBasic concepts “…a descriptor of the pressures on the system, of its state and the changes of the system. Or,: …as quantitative or qualitative measures that can be assessed in relation to a criterion that describes features of an ecosystem or the related social system, or described elements of prevailing policy and management conditions and human driven processes indicative of the state of the eco-and social system. • Organized in a conceptual framework • Associated with evaluation criteria • Associated with a temporal and spatial domain

7. Environmental indicatorsBasic concepts • Parameter - environmental variable that can be measured or to wich can be associated a numerical value relevant to the characterization of the environment • Environmental indicators- sets of parameters or of values derived from them relevant to the characterization of specific aspects of a certain region or of its evolution. • Indices - numerical values calculated from the environmental variables that aim to represent in an only numerical value, a certain generic aspect of the environmental state of an ecosystem.

8. From variables to indicators • Types of variables to build indicators • State variables, in a generalized thermodynamic sensu, which are stocks e. g. of mass or energy. • Fluxes, as measures of variation of state variables or of the controlling forcing functions. • Ratios between state variables, between fluxes and between state variables and fluxes.

9. Environmental indicatorsTarget audience Growing data processing Indicators for public Indicators for managers Indicators for scientists Total amount of information

10. Environmental indicatorsEvaluation criteria • Reference value • What guarantees the sustainability of the system • Minimum anthropogenic interventions - pristine conditions • Defined on the basis of scientificknowledge • Objective value • Considers scientificknowledge • Socio economic and management factors • The selection of evaluation criteriais complex and very relevant • Effects on the final judgment

11. Environmental indicatorsSummary of properties • Allow the organization of information in a systematic way • Sensitive to action (information, management, actions) • Are associated with criteria and objectives • Understandable by wide audiences

12. Environmental indicatorsConceptual framework State Driving-forces Pressures Response Impacts Stateof theEnvironment Water Sediments Biota Human Activity Resources (use) Emissions Energy Agriculture Industry Human Activity Energy AgricultureIndustry Economic Environmental Agencies Administration Private Values Public HealthBiodiversity Functions Recreation Fisheries Food Prioritize action Macro economic policies Responses from Society (action)

13. Environmental indicatorsExamples of application European Union - European Environment Agency State of the Environment Report

14. Environmental indicatorsExamples of application US-Environmental Protection Agency 1st order: Changes in behavior. Evaluate the need of action 2nd order: Pollution abatement. Evaluate the reduction of pollution loads as a consequence of management/policy action 3rd order: Water and sediment quality. Inform about the degree of the changes 4th order: Biota and habitat. Provide information about the extension of the changes in the health of ecosystems and organisms and on the economy of the region

15. Building a system of indicators (1) Uses and functionsof the ecosystem Data base Issues identification Users Conceptual Model Qualityobjectives Legislationandnorms Seleccion of variables

16. Environmental indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators Types of variables • Context information • Morphology • Hydrology • Pressure • Susceptibility • Loads of matter and energy • Accidents • State • Presence /concentrations of substances • Response • Operational, structural Issues • Relevance criteria • Legal-economic • Ecologic • Public health • Data availability • Examples: • Eutrophication • Oxygen content • Xenobiotics • Habitat integrity • Economic output

17. Environmental indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators Data base Morphology Hidrology Significant values Space domain Temporal domain Evaluation criteria Temporalscales Reference Objective Graphic and Algebraicalgorithms Values of indicators Classes of quality

18. Building a system of indicators • Integration • Spatial –homogeneous zones • Morphology • Salinity • Management / uses • Temporal – time scales • Seasonal • Moon Indicators • Test values • Dimension removal • Normalized Indicator • Algebraic operador • Penalty curves Quality classes • Rules of agregation

19. Models as management tools ...in science, a model has the objective to understand and represent, even partially, reality. • Models are about: • “discovery/understanding”. • Behaviour • Models are at the same time true and not true.

20. Models as management tools • Models Dynamic representation of the influence of controlling factors and of inter-relationships between state variables • Objectives of modelling: • Provide a representation of reality • Uncover relationships between variables (state and forcing functions) –better understanding of the system - diagnosis modelling • Forecast values of variables and of the behaviour of the system - prognosis modelling

21. Modelling process • Conceptual model – tell the story we know about the system. • Identify: • Interdependencies • Influence of external factors • Time scales • Boundaries (what is part and is not part of the system) • Verbal • Schematic (blocks diagram) • Symbolic language (Odum, Forrester)

22. Modelling process • Variables • State variables – stocks • Forcing functions / driving forces- external • Fluxes of matter and energy • Rates – control fluxes • Support variables

23. Conceptual model Control function Desired level inside the khazan Driving forces Tide Fresh water flow Paddy field River Flux Poim_river Flux Fields_poim Area Water level Volume POIM Area Water level Volume Flux River_poim Flux Poim_fields

24. Conceptual model Driving forces Estuarine salinity River Paddy field Salt flux Poim_river Salt flux Fields_poim Salinity POIM Salinity Salt flux River_poim Salt flux Poim_fields

25. Symbolic languages

26. Symbolic languages

27. Modelling process (2) • Define mathematical relations • Identify time units (depending on time scales of processes) • Choose values for: • Initial conditions of state variables • Parameters • Constants • Start simulations • Check obvious errors (e.g.- stop river flow and volume variation does not respond) • Analyse results – calibrate-validate

28. Conceptual modellingSchematic representation

29. FormulationSystem of equations

30. Ecological models

31. Final remarks (1) • Different management instruments are not mutually exclusive • Have the potentiality to be used in ecosystems of different nature (agro-forest, production forest, aquatic) as diverse are the case studies of the INTEREST Project. • Selection of indicators is a starting point to identify model variables

32. Final remarks (2) • Modelling exercise contributes to identify relationships between variables • An initial understanding of the relevant process is needed to allow the development of any of the types of tools • No useful conclusions without a basic set of data