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El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Markus Jochum (NCAR). ENSO – a modeler's perspective. What is ENSO? Why use models? What are the challenges?. NOAA/PMEL. NOAA/PMEL. NOAA/PMEL. NOAA/PMEL. NOAA/PMEL. Why models?.

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El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

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  1. El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Markus Jochum (NCAR)

  2. ENSO – a modeler's perspective • What is ENSO? • Why use models? • What are the challenges?

  3. NOAA/PMEL

  4. NOAA/PMEL

  5. NOAA/PMEL

  6. NOAA/PMEL

  7. NOAA/PMEL

  8. Why models? • Philosophical aspect: proof of understanding comes from reproducing/predicting • Practical aspect: seasonal weather forecast provides societal benefits • Desperation: for the foreseeable future there will not be enough observations to determine the nature of ENSO - ENSO triggered by noise - ENSO, an ocean-atmosphere oscillation

  9. Lengaigne et al., 2004

  10. Thermocline anomaly from CCSM3

  11. CHALLENGE I: the observations

  12. CHALLENGE II: What is the source of a bias in a coupled model?

  13. CHALLENGE III: Physics

  14. CHALLENGE IV: the global solution

  15. Over long time periods like decades midlatitude oceanic biases will affect ENSO. Surface wind stress from T42x1 and ERS satellite

  16. Summary • Neither ignore nor trust the observations • ENSO is not a solved problem • Don't believe everything your advisor tells you • There is no well defined ocean-atmosphere boundary • If you cannot laugh about it, it is not the right way!

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