1 / 22

Decoding ENSO: Unveiling the True Drivers Behind Climate Variability

Explore the hidden drivers behind El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability, including lunar perigee pulses, solar wind variations, and Earth's magnetic field influences. Dive into dynamic models and advanced forecasting techniques to unravel ENSO mysteries. Discover the correlation between tidal forcing and ENSO derived values, shedding light on the chaotic nature of these interactions. Gain insights into Kelvin waves, MJO patterns, and Pacific Ocean currents that shape global climate trends.

kdutton
Download Presentation

Decoding ENSO: Unveiling the True Drivers Behind Climate Variability

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ENSO –El Niño Southern Oscillation Drivers of ENSOvariability By MSc.Per Strandberg

  2. Currentunderstandingof ENSO by the climate community • Dynamic Models : Understanding Good Walker circulations, Kelvin Waves • Forecast : Bad 2-3 months • Long range forecast impossible : Wrong • Variability driven by weather noise : Wrong • Understanding what triggers ENSO variability: They have no clue • Black Box Syndrome • The butterfly effect and chaos theory

  3. The real drivers of ENSOAnd the real butterfly effect • Lunar Perigee Pulses • Variations on solar wind • Variations in Earth’s magnetic field, Ap, Kp • Random weather noise 5-10% • Electromagnetic influences from the Sun 30-25% • Lunar Perigee Pulses 60-70%

  4. ENSO drivers hidden deep in data Problem: In-data -> Out-data • Non linear relationship • No fix frequencies • Time delays: months to years • Linear regression, frequency analysis, dynamic, statistical models = times series ANN, Markov chain: Doesn’t work • ANN: Works

  5. ANN applied on ENSO 1979 2022 2005 2016 • Asymptotic transfer functions • Hundreds of weights • Input from previous and back 3 years • Iterative process • Red Training: Minimize variance • Green Testing: Minimal variance -> Save weights • Hundreds of transfer functions recursively created • Blue: Recreate ENSO based on saved weights

  6. Ap-index real and forecast

  7. Input neuron data • No ENSO data input in the neurons • The gravitational tidal anomaly vector during lunar perigee – combined Lunar and solar tidal force. • The latitude of that vector • Solar wind data. Temperature, density and speed • Earth’s magnetic field. Kp and Ap Influenced by the Sun • No Ultraviolet lights. No long range data series

  8. Randomness and ensembles • Ensembles of 9 different setups of the neurons • 9 runs with a mean value • Random setups of neurons for each run

  9. ENSO from 1980 to 2022

  10. Zoomed in on 2014 to 2022

  11. Current ENSO prediction • Didn’t miss the recent El Niño, but missed the strength • Current la Niña is now weak, but I expect it to strengthening and peek around Februari next year • Return to high ENSO value with a peek early in 2018 • ENSO high values in the coming years

  12. Test period 2012,14,15

  13. Correlations against derivation of global temperature anomaly

  14. Tidal forcing of ENSO • I looked at tidal forcing at New Moon, Full Moon and Lunar Perigee. • I got good correlations with tidal forcing at Lunar Perigee. • I got best correlation against ENSO derivation in Lunar-solar tidal forcing during Perigee

  15. Moon’s elliptical orbit The elliptical orbit of the Moon, 8,8 year cyclicity

  16. Lunar Node 18.6 year periosity

  17. Tidal force vector • Each time Lunar Perigee happens, ENSO gets a pulse which size and direction is dependent on the size of tidal forcing and its latitude • Lunar Perigee is correlated to the derivate value of ENSO (∆ENSO), while changes in solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field are correlated directly to the value of ENSO • The Moon travels over 14 degrees each day during Perigee. • Lunar Perigee Pulse changes appear chaotic in strength and angle from one pulse to the next

  18. Percent variability • The difference in the Lunar gravitational pull during high tide between Apogee and Perigee is about 60% • During Lunar Perigee the impact from the Sun add an additional variability of about 30% to the gravitational pull

  19. Pacific Ocean Currents

  20. Kelvin Waves

  21. Kelvin Waves and MJO • Perigee happens every 27.5 day • Kelvin Waves are generated in multiples of 27.5 days • MJO area of enhanced convections moves counter clockwise in the tropics. Makes an orbit in 30 to 60 days • When ENSO is positive and MJO is positive in the Kelvin Wave generation area (western pacific), Kelvin Waves are generated during westerly wind bursts

  22. Kelvin Waves • Kelvin Wave creates a tongue of warm water which moves east under the surface along the equator • This water may resurface near South America • This water may resurface west of the Galapagos • This water may dissipate and never reach the surface • MJO variation is probably driven by the same forces that is driving ENSO

More Related