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Climate Outlook – August 2010

Climate Outlook – August 2010. La Nina Strengthens to Moderate Level. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. MJJ 2010 SST forecast from Apr. Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.51 Trop 0.57 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.61

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Climate Outlook – August 2010

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  1. Climate Outlook – August 2010 La Nina Strengthens to Moderate Level

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season MJJ 2010 SST forecast from Apr Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.51 Trop 0.57 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.61 Trop 0.69 MJJ 2010 SST obs (deg C)

  3. SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season MJJ 2010 SST anom (deg C) warm cold MJJ 2010 precip anom (mm/day) wet dry

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.004 (0.008) T 0.004 (0.015) likelihood: G 0.002 (0.002) T 0.004 (0.008) Heidke: G 0.015 (0.042) T 0.016 (0.068) GROC: G 0.539 (0.539) T 0.568 (0.565) MJJ 2010 precip tercile categ MJJ 2010 precip probab forecast from mid-Apr

  5. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.274 (0.118) T 0.449 (0.185) likelihood: G 0.146 (0.056) T 0.265 (0.095) Heidke: G 0.469 (0.305) T 0.693 (0.422) GROC: G 0.702 (0.578) T 0.824 (0.632) MJJ 2010 temp tercile categ MJJ 2010 temp probab forecast from mid-Apr

  6. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | --------------------------------------------------------------------

  7. Stronger El Niño El Nino Jul La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  8. * * * * * * * * * * * * * Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP El Nino’s maximum influence on climate La Nina signature

  9. Stronger La Niña *** **** ******* ** StrongerEl Niño

  10. mid-June

  11. mid-July

  12. mid-Aug

  13. Aug 2008 Aug 2009 Aug 2010 Enhanced trades Below-average thermocline depth continues to dominate ENSO state: Moderate La Nina conditions

  14. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid-Aug 2010 mid-July 2010 moderate weak MJO MJO + + moderate La Nina weak La Nina = = moderate La Nina weak La Nina

  15. (SST, sea level pressure, winds, cloudiness, convection)

  16. Nino3.4 SST anomaly predictions from July

  17. Nino3.4 SST anomaly predictions from August

  18. from July

  19. from August

  20. August 2010 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right)

  21. wet dry La Nina probabilistic composite for Sep-Nov 0.33

  22. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsAugust 2010 NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

  23. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  24. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

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