California Health Care Employment Outlook: 2010-20

1. California Health Care Employment Outlook: 2010-20 Richard Holden Regional Commissioner U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CHWA/CHPC Meeting September 6, 2012

2. Employment Projections Background • 10-year projections made every 2 years • 2010-20 projections cover over 700 occupations and 300 industries • Projections are used to produce the Occupational Outlook Handbook—which has been published since 1949

3. Other Uses of Employment Projections Data • Career counselors and students making career choice decisions • Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations • Education and training officials to make decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings • Researchers interested in how the economy is changing

4. Employment Projections Process Labor Force Total and by age, sex, race and ethnicity Aggregate Economy GDP, total employment, and major demand categories Demographics Fiscal policy Foreign economies Energy prices Monetary policy Population Labor force participation rate trends Occupational Employment Job openings due to growth & replacement needs Industry Final Demand Sales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreigners Staffing patterns Staffing pattern ratio analyses Staff expertise Replacement rates Economic censuses Annual economic surveys Other data sources Industry Output Use and Make Relationships, Total Requirements Tables Industry Employment Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employment Industry output Sector wage rates Technological change Input-Output Tables 4

5. Population and Labor Force Millionsof persons 2010 2000 Projected 2020 2010 Projected 2020 2000 Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6. Population Growth Rate Annual rates of change Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7. Labor Force Participation Rates Percent Men Total Women

8. Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected 2010-20 In thousands of people

9. Labor Force Growth by Race and Ethnicity Change in millions, projected 2010-20

10. Unemployment Rate

11. Inflation Rate Annual rate of change Historic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

12. Housing Starts: 1960 to 2010 and Projected 2020 (Thousands of units) Recession year Historic Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

13. Employment Millions of jobs Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

14. The “Lost” Decade • In 2000, total of 132.4 million jobs • 2000-2010 Projection: 152 million total jobs in 2010 • 2000-2010 Actual: 130.4 million jobs in 2010 • 2020 Projected Employment: 150.2 million

15. Service providing Goods producing Employment by Industry Sector: 2010 Thousands of wage and salary jobs

16. Service providing Goods producing Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20 Thousands of wage and salary jobs

17. Service providing Goods producing Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= 1.4%

18. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20 (Continued on next slide)

19. Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Increased 2006-10 Percent of 2006 employment NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to 2020. The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only.

20. Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs 1.2 M 1.8 M

21. Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected 2010-20 (Continued on next slide)

22. Job Openings by Major Occupational Group (Continued) Thousands of job openings, projected 2010-20

23. Fastest Growing Occupations Percent change, projected 2010-20

24. Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

25. Occupations with the Most Job Openings Thousands of job openings, projected 2010-20

26. Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category Average, all occupations = 14.3% Percent change, projected 2010-20

27. Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

28. Graduate Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

29. Associate’s Degree or Postsecondary Non-degree Award Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

30. Less Than High School Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

31. U.S. Health care Overview

32. Health Care Employment and Annual Rate of Change 2000-2010, 2010-2020 Employment, in thousands

33. Ambulatory Health Care Services Employment Annual Rate of Change 2000-2010, 2010-2020 Employment, in thousands

34. Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Projected Job Growth in the U.S., 2010-2020

35. Healthcare Occupations with the Fastest Projected Job Growth in the U.S., 2010-2020

36. Healthcare Occupations with the Most Projected Job Openings in the U.S., 2010-2020

37. Employment in Hospitals by Detailed Occupation (includes Private, State, and Local Government Hospitals – May 2011) May 2011 Occupational Employment Statistics

38. Top Paying Metropolitan Areas for Registered Nurses, Nationwide(May 2011 - Top 10 Metropolitan Areas are All Located in California)

39. Employed Persons by Detailed Industry, Sex, Race, and Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity

40. California Population and Labor force Overview

41. Labor Force Share by Sex 2010

42. Labor Force Share by Race 2010

43. Labor Force Share by Race 2010

44. Labor Force Share by Race 2010

45. Labor Force Share by Ethnicity 2010

48. California Counties with the Largest Population Growth, 2010-2050 Bubble size represents 2010 population

49. California health care industry projections

50. Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20, California Source: California Employment Development Department, 2010-2020 Industry Projections