Socioeconomic theory and differential fertility; The case of Saudi Arabia.

1. Socioeconomic theory and differential fertility; The case of Saudi Arabia. Submitted by: Azizah Linjawi

2. Saudi Arabia

3. Aim of the paper Socioeconomic changes Differential fertility

4. Questions of the study • Does Saudi Arabia follow the development countries in fertility decline? • Does the importance of economic and social development affect fertility patterns in Saudi? • Are there any other cultural factors that may let Saudi follow another path in fertility changes?

5. My theoretical model macro Structural changes micro Individual modernity (change in values and norms) differential fertility Socioeconomic changes

6. Socioeconomic Structural changes • Population growth. • Urbanization. • Education. • Growth and per-capita income. • Women status. (female participating in labor force , female education). • Demographic transition.

7. Population growth • population growth • Total population reached 21.4 million. • 15.7 million Saudis and 5.7 million non-Saudis. • population increase 17.4% between 1992-1999.

8. Population growth • Saudi Arabia, with one of the world's highest population growth rates at 3.2 % (estimated by the Saudi Central Department of Statistic Estimation), was for the first time seeking assistance from the UNFPA for health care management and health education programs

9. Urbanization • roughly 49% of the total population was urbanized as early as 1970. • 12% of the population was living in cities with populations of one million or more. • The percentage of the population living in cities reached 79% by 1995. • Urbanization reached 86% in 2000, with 25% of the population living in cities of over one million people

10. Jeddah city

11. Education • The CIA estimated in 2002 that Saudi Arabia had reached an overall literacy rate of 84.2% for males and 69.5% for females. • female graduates rose from 13 to 21,721, ending in a total that slightly exceeded the number of male graduates.

12. Female enrollment by thousands

13. Women status • The number of women graduating from universities has grown at an average rate of 2.5 times that of male graduates during the last decade . • the labor force of native Saudi workers will increase from 3.17 million to 8.26 million between 1999 and 2020.

14. Women participating in labor force

15. Proportion of Women participating in labor force

16. Growth in per-capita income. • Recently World Bank estimates show an average annual growth in GNP of only 2.3 during 1998-1999 despite rising oil revenues . • CSIS report, population growth will be a critical threat to the Gulf countries of Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Yemen in the year’s between1990-2030. Oil wealth cannot offset a steady drop in per-capita income unless far more serious cuts in demographic growth take place.

17. Population and per-capita income

18. Demographic transition in Saudi Arabia • 1980 the crude death rates dropped from 9 in 1000 people • 4 in 1000 people in 1998, which is a decline of greater than half. • Also the crude birth rates changed from 43 in 1000 people to 34 in1000 people.

19. Death in Saudi in 1999

20. Differences in ASFR between 1991- 1999 Source: Demographic survey 1999. Ministry of planning. Saudi Arabia.

21. Differences n Saudi TFR

22. Conclusion • All recent statistical data as indicated before demonstrated that there is an ongoing demographic transition, but with a slower rate of change between vital events (especially fertility) and the rate of growth.

23. future question • Can socioeconomic changes in Saudi Arabia aid in the changing of norms and values that are conducive to fertility decline? ?

24. My Future question Seriocomic change ? differential fertility

25. Answer • Smile