Defining Climate Service Needs within the Context of Comprehensive Disaster Management

1. Defining Climate Service Needs within the Context of Comprehensive Disaster Management Liz Riley Deputy Executive Director Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency Barbados Town and Country Planning Society Seminar October 28, 2011 Barbados

2. Presentation Overview • CDEMA – Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency • The Caribbean Hazards and Climate Change • Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) – A Framework for Engagement on the GFCS • Needs going forward

3. What is CDEMA? • Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA - formally CDERA) is the regional inter-governmental Agency responsible for disaster management in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) • CDERA established in 1991 by an Agreement of Heads of Government of CARICOM • September 1, 2009 – official date of transition from CDERA to CDEMA • 18 Participating States – Haiti and Suriname joined September 1, 2009

4. CDEMA Participating States

5. The Caribbean Hazards Landscape • Caribbean region is very prone to hazards (natural and man-made) • Climate variability and change likely to increase frequency and severity of hydro meteorological events • Increased exposure to natural hazards within the last two decades Spatial distribution of hurricanes and storms in the Caribbean Region (1900-2004)

6. SOURCE: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Database 2008

7. Hazards of Concern at the Regional Level

8. Selected Hazard Impacts in the Caribbean Various sources: Collated by CDEMA

9. Storm Surge, Palmiste Grenada, Hurricane Lenny, 1999

10. Landslide – Marc, Saint Lucia (Hurricane Tomas 2010)

11. Gouyave, Grenada Hurricane Lenny

12. Climate change impacts • Sea Level Rise – IPCC 3rd Assessment Report avg 5.0mm/yr over the 21st Century • Temperature increases: 11 of the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 12 years. If concentrations of all GHG and aerosols kept constant at 2000 levels, further warming of 0.1degrees C would be expected * • ‘Very likely” that extreme heat events and heavy precipitation will become more frequent* • ‘Likely” that future tropical cyclones will become more intense with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation* * 4th IPCC Assessment Report

13. Climate change impacts • Climate change impacts will vary from country to country, region to region, may also vary from community to community since impacts are linked to existing vulnerabilities

14. Potential impacts from a 1 m sea level rise in the Caribbean • Nearly 1,300 km2 land area lost (e.g., 5% of The Bahamas, 2% Antigua and Barbuda). •  Over 110,000 people displaced (e.g., 5% of population in The Bahamas, 3% Antigua and Barbuda). •  At least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost, with beach assets lost or greatly degraded at many more tourism resorts.

15. Potential impacts from a 1 m sea level rise in the Caribbean • Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food supply and rural livelihoods (e.g., 5% in Dominica, 6% in The Bahamas, 5% in St. Kitts and Nevis). • Transportation networks severely disrupted, including loss or damage of 21 (28%) CARICOM airports, lands surrounding 35 ports inundated (out of 44) and loss of 567 km of roads (e.g., 14% of road network in The Bahamas, 12% Guyana, 14% in Dominica). Source: Delivering transformational change 2011-21 Implementing the CARICOM ‘Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change’ (2011) quoting Caribsave (2010)

16. Economic Costs of Climate Change projected annual cost of inaction by 2025 (taking into account increased hurricane damages, loss of tourism revenue, and infrastructure damages) Source: Delivering transformational change 2011-21 Implementing the CARICOM ‘Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change’ (2011) quoting Caibsave 2010

17. Redefining Development “Development must be redefined to be sensitive to disaster and climate risks” Global Assessment Report 2011

18. Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) – The Caribbean Brand of Disaster Risk Management

19. CDM Strategy 2013-2023 • 10 year strategy – longer planning horizon • Deeper integration of climate change adaptation issues under the umbrella of resilience • Inclusion of niche groups to be targeted – Finance and Economic Planning. Physical Planning. Climate Change Focal Points and Environment • Operational Readiness and strengthening of Early warning Systems

20. The Global Framework for Climate Services aims to enable society to manage the risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and change better, especially for those who are most vulnerable to such risks

21. Climate Services Needs of Disaster Managers • Drought prediction information • Climate Outlook forum (CARICOF) precipitation information at a minimum on a quarterly basis – informs ground saturation and by extension flood scenarios

22. Existing interface mechanisms and recommendations for improvements • User-Interface Platform for operation • DEWETRA platform is established and being utilized. CDEMA CU therefore views this as the platform to be utilized going forward within our Participating States for national and regional level purposes • Improvements required relate to the expansion of the Platform into the other 8 CDEMA Participating States; strengthening of existing spatial data sets etc. • Space for Dialogue exists through national committees for disaster management • Improvements – integration of climate service analyzed results into national and regional level plans, protocols and procedures (for emergencies) and for longer term development planning. The latter through the lens of longer term climate change.

23. Capacity development needs to implement the GFCS at regional and national levels • Need for better understanding of the GFCS amongst disaster Managers • Expansion of the DEWETRA Platform application to the broader Caribbean Region (training, data collection, training in interpretation for national personnel) • Strengthening of the sustainable real time hydrological data collection network to serve multiple purposes • Population of the platform with other relevant spatial layers

24. Institutional arrangements, partnerships and processes required to operationalize the GFCS at the national level • National Level: • Institutional Arrangements: Mechanisms exist with Disaster Managers through the National Disaster Management Committees. Mechanism needs to be strengthened to ensure the national committee is risk oriented. • Retooling of national Meteorological services to deliver or support delivery of climate services (retooling needs may vary based on the current mandate of the meteorological services ie. Forecasting vs. non-forecasting territory) • Organizational mandates and structures • Legislative framework for operation • Monitoring and Evaluation – how do we measure the changes emerging from the climate service interventions? • Communication modalities will require attention

25. Institutional arrangements, partnerships and processes required to operationalize the GFCS at the regional level • Regional Level: • Strengthening of the CIMH to sustainably deliver on this mandate inclusive of investment in further research • Specific needs to be defined but couched within the context of CIMH designation as a regional climate centre

26. Thank You! Contact Information Email: elizabeth.riley@cdema.org; Website: www.cdema.org;