Disaster management and climate

1. Disaster management and climate

2. future risk patterns will be different from the past … so disaster management must prepare to face the new risk patterns Image: NASA

3. In this presentation • Why consider climate in disaster management? • How to plan "climate-smart" disaster management? • Examples CTK Module 2a Early Warning Early Action and this module • This module closely linked to other parts of the Climate Training Kit Module 2c Community resilience and climate and 2d Health, WASH and climate

4. Most disasters are weather-related Source: IFRC, World Disasters Report 2018

5. Image: NASA Enhance existing work – not new programmes • Climate • change • adaptation "climate-smart" disaster management Apply a "climate lens" • Climate • change • mitigation

6. Preparedness for Effective Response (PER) Photo: Danish Red Cross . Photo: Mozambique Red Cross, cyclone Idaï 2019

7. What does it mean to be PER ready? A National Society develops a strategic work plan and implements key actions to improve their response effectiveness The key areas for capacity strengthening are: Photo: Danish Red Cross

8. Main climate-relevant PER elements 1 – and links to CTK modules Forecast-based Financing / Action ( 2a) Access climate trends and projections to inform planning ( 1a) Contingency planning for new extreme events ( this module)

9. Main climate-relevant PER elements 2 – and links to CTK modules Green Response (https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/green-response/) ( 5 – under development) Advocacy, policy dialogue and finance ( 3a)

10. PER component Analysis and planning: risk analysis & EW • Collect background information and assess: • What current disaster patterns could be affected by changing weather patterns and extremes? • What are current climate trends, how may the climate and extremes develop the coming decades? • What early warning systems are available, and could be used to prepare better at all levels? • For the process, seek advice and support from national Hydro-met services and other 'knowledge centres' • See also modules: • 1a Science and impacts • 2a Early Warning Early Action

11. PER component Analysis and planning: risk analysis & EW Consider using information at different time scales Rainfall on very wet days Longlead time climate projections, new extremes Medium lead times e.g. seasonal forecasts (el Niño/la Niña) Shortlead times e.g. approaching storms  more time to prepare Photo: Nasa

12. PER component Analysis and planning: risk analysis & EW • Make use of weather forecasts (days, seasonal) at the National Society and regional level • Collaborate with national Hydro-met services to access most relevant information timely • Help in awareness raising so vulnerable people understand warnings, and have plans in place to act on them Photo: Alex Wynter/Netherlands Red Cross

13. PER component Analysis and planning: scenario planning • Accounting for new and rising risks due to climate change, for example: • Response and contingency planning with new 'worst case scenarios' based on climate information and likely new extreme events • Reviewing location and distribution of warehouses with response and relief item stocks across the country/region • Mobilisation and training of a sufficiently large volunteer base ready to assist in impending disasters • Other potential actions? Photo: Danish Red Cross Photo: Pakistan Red Crescent Society Photo IFRC

14. Source: NASA Preparedness activities with expanded outreach PER component Analysis and planning: Preparedness plans Example • Bangladesh: • Cyclones likely to get more intense • Affecting more people that are unprepared or unexperienced • Bangladesh Red Crescent is expanding its famous Cyclone Preparedness Programme into new areas. • Larger numbers of people trained • Larger areas of government cyclone related coordination Photo: IFRC Photo: IFRC

15. PER component Analysis & planning: Early action mechanisms

16. Photo: Danish Red Cross PER component Analysis & planning: Recovery planning Don’t rebuild risk… Photo: IFRC Safe areas – also for new extremes – need to be considered before rebuilding or relocation, like shelters on high(er) ground in flood-prone areas Temporary shelter locations – e.g. IDP camps – also need to be planned with extreme heat, cold or flood risks in mind Seek advice from Hydro-met services on likely extremes

17. PER component Analysis & planning: Recovery planning Example • Haiti forecast page: • Haitians affected by the 2010 quake were later at risk from hurricanes • A special monitoring page was created to assist the recovery operations

18. Guides to help the process They mention the need to plan for new extremes, but a National Society will need to seek the locally relevant information for a risk assessments and realistic new worst-case scenarios Next – check the Modules on: 2a. Early Warning Early Action 2c. Community resilience and climate

19. Guides to help the process The Minimum Standards for climate-smart local DRR provides the core principles for a National Society to adjust is programming Next – check the Modules on: 2a. Early Warning Early Action 2c. Community resilience and climate They mention the need to plan for new extremes, but a National Society will need to seek the locally relevant information for a risk assessments and realistic new worst-case scenarios