Representative Farm Outlook

1. Representative Farm Outlook Joe L. Outlaw Assoc. Professor & Extension Economist Agricultural and Food Policy Center Texas A&M University Ag Outlook Conference Texas Tech University Lubbock, Texas May 14, 2004

2. Outline of Presentation • January Baseline • Cotton Example • Cost of Production Comparison • Revenue Picture • Grain Sorghum Example • Cost of Production Comparison • Revenue Picture • Wrap Up

3. Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) • Role in FAPRI Consortium • Take sector and macro projections from FAPRI-MO models and impose on representative farms • Representative farms used to provide indication of policy impacts at the farm level • Much like sector models, impacts best viewed relative to Baseline • AFPC has more contact with producers across the U.S. • Contact sometimes leads to perspective helpful to international and sector level analysis

4. Representative Cotton Farms

6. DP Yield, CCP Yield, and Average Yield for Non-Irrigated Cotton on Representative Farms (lbs/acre)

7. DP Yield, CCP Yield, and Average Yield for Irrigated Cotton on Representative Farms (lbs./acre)

8. Direct Cash Costs of Production for Non-Irrigated Cotton on AFPC Representative Farms ($/lb)

9. Direct Cash Costs of Production for Irrigated Cotton on Representative Farms ($/lb)

15. Direct Cash Costs of Production for Sorghum on Representative Farms ($/cwt)

19. DP Yield, CCP Yield, and Average Yield for Sorghum on Representative Farms (cwt/acre)

20. Wrap Up • Representative Farm Differences Illustrate: • Why it is hard to develop national policy • Regional differences of opinion • Still a teachable moment