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MEXICO 2012

MEXICO 2012. The Presidential Race. Context. Calderon’s Drug Cartel War strategy - violence Social unrest – pacific protests Immigration and Border Issues with U.S. PAN governing for 12 years – political weakening PRI’s 2009 comeback – same old PRI? PRD’s eternal fights – possible fracture

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MEXICO 2012

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  1. MEXICO 2012 The Presidential Race

  2. Context • Calderon’s Drug Cartel War strategy - violence • Social unrest – pacific protests • Immigration and Border Issues with U.S. • PAN governing for 12 years – political weakening • PRI’s 2009 comeback – same old PRI? • PRD’s eternal fights – possible fracture • Important Dates • Pre-campaigns December 18 – February 16, 2012 • Campaign: March 30 – July 27, 2012 • Election Day: July 1st, 2012

  3. The Actors: Pre-candidates • PAN (internal election) • Josefina Vazquez Mota (FC Plan B) • Ernesto Cordero (FC Plan A) • Santiago Creel (Fox, right groups) • PRI (open election) (possible alliance PVEM+PANAL) • Enrique Pena Nieto (40% ahead of any rival) • Manlio Fabio Beltrones (“Mano dura”) • PRD (still undecided) (possible alliance PT+MC) • Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Structure, hard core) • Marcelo Ebrard (Social-Democrat)

  4. The other actors: $, social, political • Carlos Salinas de Gortari – intellectual operator • AtlacomulcoGroup - $ interests, EPN supporters • Elba Esther Gordillo – syndicalist, education leader • Negotiating 32 Congressmen “Power is power…” • Carlos Slim – he’ll bet on all • AMLO and the poor ones • Civil Society, NGO’s • TV Companies - $ interests, PVEM legislators • Businessmen in General • IFE – Federal Electoral Institute • “Informal politics” – out of the system

  5. Possible Scenarios & Conclusions • Enrique Pena Nieto virtual winner + PVEM + PANAL • Possible forces alliances against him – “Guerra sucia” • Wife suicide, Paulette’s case, etc. CISEN. • No big changes • Mid term policies for force balances in DCW • Lobbying for major Reforms (energy, political, fiscal, justice) – Congress: divided vs majority • Coalition Government? • Foreign Policy - a more active and aggressive one • Economic stability

  6. MEXICO 2012

  7. MEXICO 2012 The Presidential Race

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