European Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting System for Environmental and Climate Changes

1. The new ECOOP suggestion from Norway(Met.no, NERSC, IMR) Why new? Because: • Too little focus on clear objectives and specific products • Products and services instead of disciplines • Much too big • Needs stronger links to the call text

2. The overall aim • Develop, validate and demonstrate a European coastal and shelf seas operational monitoring and forecasting system targeted at detecting environmental and climate changes, predicting their evolution, producing forecasts and facilitate decision support needs.

3. Specific goals • Assess the present operational coastal monitoring and forecasting system in Europe and identify gaps and limitations. • Integrate and implement a pan-European Marine Information System of Systems (EuroMISS) for coastal and regional seas based on existing relevant systems. • Advance downscaling approaches and improve region-specific monitoring and forecasting products, including necessary supporting information.

4. Goals cont. • Exploite the EuroMISS technology and create a long-term sustainable and integrated generic European Decision Support System for coastal and regional seas (EuroDeSS) that respond to the end-user needs as emphasized in the GMES and GEOSS initiatives. • Carry out technology transfer both in Europe and at intercontinental level, establish education and training capacities to meet the need for ocean forecasters, and search for socio-economic benefits

5. M L

6. EuroDeSS EuroMISS Regional and local users LocSys1 WMS/DAP LocSys2 WMS/DAP Regional Decision Support System All LocSys contains: LocSys3 WMS/DAP Scientific • Operational observ. • Operational models • Offline products EuroMISS Portal RegSys1 Manage-ment LocSysX LocSysY LocSysZ Public LocSysN WMS/DAP

7. ECOOP LocSysN integration tech.xfer EuroDeSS EuroMISS selected development RegSysN

8. Candidate services and products arranged according to different temporal scales are: Forecast (up to 10 days): • Search and rescue • Oil spill fate • Potentially harmful algal blooms • Transport and dispersion of particles and distribution of water masses (e.g., fish eggs and larvae, contaminants, suspended matter, fresh water) • Coastal “weather” (e.g., currents, turbulence, temperature, salinity, waves, water level, sea ice, light, wind, surface air temperature)

9. PRODUCTS • Defınıtıon: • (ocean state characterıstıcs) • output from ECOOP system • (Informatıon: meanıngful way to present the products) • Currents, temperature, salınıty • waves, • sea level, • sea ıce • Bıogeochemıcal state varıables (chlorophyll, phytoplankton, oxygen, nutrıents, zooplankton, zoobenthos, ..) • Sedıment fluxes • Rıver ınputs (runoff, nutrıents and organıc materıals • Bloom type and probabılıty • Transport and dispersion of particles/tracers

10. SERVICES • Defınıtıon • Delıverıng of relevant products ın the needed tıme, qualıty and format • Search and rescue • Oıl spıll • Oxygen depletıon • HABs • Ice • Clımate change detectıon and assessment • Waves and storm surge • Exchanges between North Sea and Baltıc, Med and Black Sea • WFD ımplementatıon scenarıos • Aquaculture • fısherıes

11. Products cont. Monthly to seasonal and annual hindcast to now: • Primary production (e.g., onset/ magnitude/ distribution of diatoms and flagellates) • Eutrophication (e.g., nutrients, oxygen) • Transboundary transports of nutrients and suspended matter • Pathways and dilution of potential polluted freshwater • Coastal “weather” (e.g., currents, turbulence, temperature, salinity, waves, water level, sea ice, light, wind, surface air temperature)

12. Products cont. Multiyear and multidecadal observations, hindcast and scenario simulations: • Produce and update long time-series of the regional ocean climate and ecosystem variability (lower trophic levels, with focus on the needs from fisheries) • Demonstrate the potential status of regional to coastal climate and ecosystem state and variability under predicted future climate scenarios • Quantify coastal environmental effects of management scenarios (related to primary production, eutrophication and transboundary transports of nutrients, focused on the challenges set by OSPARCOM etc.) All products and services should be subject to validation and uncertainty estimation.

13. Organization of workrelated to products and services • Module 1. EuroMISS implementation and assessment • Module 2. Product and service development/improvement (targeted areas) • Module 3. EuroDeSS implementation and assessment (targeted areas) • Module 4. Technology transfer, Education and training, Socio-economic benefits

14. Mod.1. EuroMISS implementation and assessm. The intention is that the development of EuroMISS will include the technical aspects of data/information management and exchange, including the necessary links to existing systems. • 1.1. Harmonisation and integration of existing information networks (remote sensing, in situ and models) (This instead of old WP 1, 2, 3 and 5) • 1.2. EuroMISS technical design, development and implementation (based on existing systems) (old WP4 and products of WP12) • 1.3. Quality assessment of EuroMISS capacity (user consultation) (old WP13) • 1.4. Identification and development of new community baseline products and services in EuroMISS (user consultation) (old WP 1,2,3,5) • 1.5. Use EuroMISS to produce a common and consistent data base for pan-European application.

15. Module 2. Product and service development/improvement (targeted areas) • 2.1.Model development (fine scale, ecosystem, parts of old WP6, 9 and 10) • 2.2. Coastal observing systems (old WP7) • 2.3. Coastal data assimilation (parts of WP6) • 2.4. Uncertainty estimation (inter-comparison, ensemble, validation, old WP8 and WP11) 2.5. Hindcast and scenario studies on coastal- shelf climate and ecosystem variability and change (old WP 12)

16. Module 3. EuroDeSS implementation and assessment • 3.1. Design and implement EuroDeSS, including the environmental assessment andadvice functioning and decision support (including objectives from old WP6 etc.) • 3.2. Demonstration and quality assessment of EuroDeSS capacity (user consultation) (old WP13)

17. Module 4. Technology transfer, education and training, socio-economic benefits • 4.1. Transfer of selected products and methodology to a pan-European EuroMISS level • 4.2. Transfer of target area system (EuroDeSS) to new area • 4.3. Education and training, Socio-economic benefit It will be necessary to establish an end-user advisory group