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WP 05 Monitoring & Forecasting Center for Arctic MFC

WP 05 Monitoring & Forecasting Center for Arctic MFC. Laurent Bertino, NERSC, Bergen, Norway. Reminder - Partnership. WP 5 Arctic MFC (coordination). NERSC (L. Bertino). Development Maintenance. R&D. Production. CalVal. NERSC (P. Sakov) Met.no IMR. IMR (H. Wehde) NERSC

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WP 05 Monitoring & Forecasting Center for Arctic MFC

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  1. WP 05Monitoring & Forecasting Center for Arctic MFC Laurent Bertino, NERSC, Bergen, Norway

  2. Reminder - Partnership WP 5 Arctic MFC (coordination) NERSC (L. Bertino) Development Maintenance R&D Production CalVal NERSC (P. Sakov) Met.no IMR IMR (H. Wehde) NERSC Met.no NIERSC Met.no (A. Burud) NERSC IMR Met.no (L.P. Røed) NERSC IMR • 3 Norwegian partners • NERSC: 1.5 persons • met.no: 2.1 persons • IMR: 1 person • 1 Russian partner • NIERSC: 0.8 person • TOTAL: 5.4 full time persons • We meet physically twice a year.

  3. Reminder - Objectives forR&D • Main objective • Physical part • Upgrade HYCOM • V1: Rivers, numerics, vertical resolution 22 to 28 layers • V2: Sea-ice model (met.no, NERSC) • Biological part • V2: Extend NORWECOM whole Arctic (IMR) • Assimilation • V1: EnKF + smoother • V2: Findings from WP3 • Main issues • Research does not always deliver what was expected • R&D must adapt to issues in production as they come (reanalysis)

  4. R&D : main achievements • Main achievements are • Year 1 (reminder) • EnKF assimilates asynchronous observations • HYCOM v2.2 and EnKF v2 perform better (and faster) • Year 2 • Bias estimation in EnKF reanalysis • Explicit Zooplankton modules in HYCOM-NORWECOM • Collisional sea ice rheology for the MIZ in HYCOM • Impact study of inflow through Bering Strait • Main difficulties • R&D needs to respond to issues occurring in the production • F. ex: Drift and bias appeared in the course of the reanalysis • Remaining activities/objectives • HYCOM-CICE to be coupled and set in assimilative mode • Improved calibration of HYCOM-NORWECOM for the Arctic

  5. Reminder - Objectives forDev. & Maintenance • Objectives, difficulties • Avoid divergence of TOPAZ-NERSC and TOPAZ-METNO • Code version management under Subversion • V0: • TOPAZ(s) assimilates from SL-TAC, IS-TAC, SIW-TAC • V1: • Contribute to reviews, plans, SCAMG • Assimilation of (additional) data from SST-TAC, SIW-TAC, IS-TAC • Upgraded delayed mode data for reanalysis from all TACs • V2: • TOPAZ-NORWECOM from WP5.2 (NERSC/IMR) • From WP3: Assimilation in HYCOM-NORWECOM (NERSC) • of ocean colour (from OC-TAC)

  6. Dev. & Maint. : main achievements • Main achievements are • V1 delivered: • Reanalysis assimilates data from SL-TAC, SST-TAC, IS-TAC • Both based on TOPAZ4: include all R&D from Yr1 • V2 implementation progress • Assimilation of data from SIW-TAC (done in reanalysis) • Improved Pacific inflow based on observations. • New lines of routine validation: SST and ice concentrations • Main difficulties • Porting errors uncovered early 2011 (incident reported to desk) • V0 backup at NERSC kept longer than expected • Assimilation of ocean colour has limited efficiency • Remaining tasks • Recover from porting errors • Ice concentrations from SIW-TAC in V1 • Spinup of V2 (with MIZ rheology and biology). • Certification / Validation of V2 and connection to MIS

  7. Reminder - Objectives forProduction • Objectives, difficulties • Provide forecast and reanalysis products to WP2.3 • Heavy computer workload: risk on timeliness • V1: • Daily production (TOPAZ-met.no) • New Product: ice type (First Year Ice, Multi Year Ice) • TOPAZ-NERSC as a backup for first 622 months (NERSC) • Then parallel test forecast suite as backup (met.no) • 20 6-years reanalysis (physical variables)(NERSC) • Needs 3 million CPU hours (= 342 years) • V2: • Include model upgrades from WP5.3 • Biological variables on demonstration mode • Forecasts (met.no / IMR) • Reanalysis (NERSC / IMR) • Under consideration: • Ensemble forecasts (10 members) [ProbaCast in WP3.2]

  8. Production : main achievements • Main achievements are • Daily runs at met.no in SMS, V0 since Sept 2009, V1 since Sept 2010 • Delivery is on time on TDS/FTP. • Tools: Nagios (monitoring) Munin (trending) • 10-mems ensemble forecast in V1 (ProbaCast) • 6-years Pilot reanalysis (2003-2008) delivered through MIS-GW • MIS-Gateway equivalent solution developed at met.no • User ECMWF transitioned from V0 to V1 • Change / incident reporting implemented • Main difficulties • HPC resources less available than expected for reanalysis • R&D actions needed during the Pilot reanalysis • Porting issues with new ice variables in RT (but OK in reanalysis) • Remaining objectives • 20-years reanalysis for V2 • Biological products available through MIS

  9. Reminder - Objectives forCal / Val • Objectives • Validate against external, delayed-mode data sets • Capitalize on the IPY (DAMOCLES, Poleward, NABOS, ...) • Acoustic tomography, moorings, ice transports • Evaluation by Norwegian fishing vessels (IMR) • Hydrographic data • INTAS-Nansen-AARI database (NERSC), NISE (IMR) • Special remote sensing products • Ocean colour (high-latitude algorithm, NIERSC) • ExpandMERSEA Arctic validation metrics (to WP2.2) • Provide recommendations for R&D (to WP3) open calls. • Contribute to QuARG with H. Wehde (IMR) • Write publications to gain credibility from peers • Risks, issues, … • Still little data available in the Arctic • Still a lot of clouds • Still quite dark in the winter, but bright in the summer!

  10. Cal/Val : main achievements • Main achievements are • RT validation against SST-TAC respect Lisbon recommendations • IPY DAMOCLES data (ITP) very useful in RA • Independent delayed mode data obtained for RA • AWI (ACOBAR), IMR (Svinøy and Bear Island volume fluxes) • New metrics: ice type validated against AARI ice charts • Assimilation of SIW TAC ice drift data useful for ice thickness • WP3.2 Harmony on Ice followed up in 2011 • Participation to new GMES R&D projects. • Main difficulties • Biological data very scarce in the Arctic • Volume fluxes hard to validate across ice-covered sections • Remaining tasks • RT validation loops: SIW-TAC ice drift, IS-TAC • More precise routine visual inspection • RA validation: expand for full 20 years reanalysis

  11. MainChallenges • Scientific Challenges • Non-linear complex ice-ocean-ecosystem interactions • Sea ice rheology • Small Rossby radius • Rapidly changing weather (Polar Lows) • Technical Challenges • Little data available to assimilate and evaluate the products (Altimetry, Argo) • Freshwater (rivers?, precipitation?) • Lower accuracy weather forecasts / reanalyses • Exchanges between Atlantic and Arctic. • Operational Challenges • Large computational load (100 members EnKF) • Needs efficient workflow for daily runs and reanalysis • Ultimate Challenges … • The Arctic Ocean is presently undergoing a transition • Increasing demands: oil and gas E&P and shipping safety (icebergs, ice ridges) • Increasing concerns from fisheries • Remain a unite team but flexible for rapidly changing user needs.

  12. FutureChallenges • Scientific Challenges • Contribute to the understanding of recent changes in the Arctic • Synthesize the validation results in RT and RA. • Identify main observations, modeling, assimilation developments needed • Technical Challenges • Replacement of production hardware at met.no end of 2011 • Offer simple and sustainable solutions to users • Operational Challenges • Intense V2 initiation phase • Routines to train new colleagues on the (complex) system • Ultimate Challenges … • Attract more users • Gain international recognition in Arctic community (AOMIP) • Main Risks • Loss of trained personnel at the end of the project.

  13. Calendar • Past (event, work or tasks achieved) : • September 2009: V0 running in RT • December 2010: V1 launched in RT and Pilot RA • February 2011: Downstream project SIDARUS • February 2011: Users switched to V1, V0 turned down. • April 2011: Validation reports for both RT and RA. • Future : • September 2011: V2 initialized, including biology • October 2011: New HPC facilities for RT production • December 2012: V2 connected to MIS • 2012: Participation to projects MyOcean2, MyWave, SANGOMA

  14. 1st reporting period : Budget • Figures will be provided by PMO as soon as your partners have finished reporting and will be added to your presentation. • Be ready to give short explanations on main deviances during your presentation... • We are talking about estimated budget (best estimates) !

  15. Some illustrations… Ice minimum Sept 2007 Ice types May 2008 SSH variability as in Köhl, JPO 2007 Svinøy Net volume flux

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