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Introduction to: Diagramming Types of Reasoning. Comparison Cause & Effect Generalization. CE Reasoning: Diagramming. “Boxes & Arrows”. EVENT. CAUSAL CONNECTION. Ex. Mrs. Margolis only got ice cream for herself at Bedford Farms which caused her to be ostracized by her colleagues.
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Introduction to:Diagramming Types of Reasoning • Comparison • Cause & Effect • Generalization
CE Reasoning: Diagramming “Boxes & Arrows” EVENT CAUSAL CONNECTION Ex. Mrs. Margolis only got ice cream for herself at Bedford Farms which caused her to be ostracized by her colleagues . . Mrs. Margolis was ostracized by her colleagues . Ms. Kornfeld only got ice cream for herself at Bedford Farms. TIP: Only 1 Idea per Box
CE Reasoning: 3 Basic Types • CAUSES—Point of argument is to explain the causes of some event. --Diagram starts with ultimate effect in box on right. Ex. There were three reasons for the failure of the Red Sox to succeed in the 2012 season. First, their starting pitching was inconsistent. Second, their relief pitching was consistently bad. And third, their big offensive players didn’t produce. Inconsistent Starting Pitching Red Sox fail to succeed in 2012 Consistently Bad Relief Pitching Big Offensive Players Unproductive
CE Reasoning: 3 Basic Types • EFFECTS—Point of argument is to explain the effects of some event. --Diagram starts with the big cause in a box on left. Ex. There were two important effects of the failure of the Red Sox to succeed in 2012. First, Boston fans quickly shifted their attention to the Pats. And, second, Yankees fans got some joy. Boston sports fans shift attention to Pats Red Sox fail to succeed in 2012 Yankees fans get joy
CE Reasoning: 3 Basic Types (3) RELATIONSHIP—Point of argument is to explain the relationship between a cause & an effect. --Diagram starts with big cause in box on left and ultimate effect in box on right. Ex. Unemployment is a major contributor to economic contraction. Unemployment decreases household income. This, in turn, reduces consumption. Decreased consumption creates downward pressure on prices which cuts business profits. With profits reduced, businesses cut production or fail. This, inevitably, means less production thus a contraction. Also, business failure creates a vicious cycle as workers are laid off. Unemployment Businesses cut back or fail ↓Production ↓ Consumption ↓ Household Income Economic Contraction ↓Prices ↓Profits
Characteristics ofGood CE Reasoning • Clear Connections between stated Causes & Effects • Lots of Boxes in a Chain • Multiple Causes/Effects • Multiple Chains • The following slide shows what a very complex cause and effect diagram may look like!
Depression Causes Speculative bubble Margin Trading Stock Crash of 1929 Pessimism Decreased household wealth Easy Credit 1920s Debt Burden hoarding Bank Failures Bank Panics Unemployment US Agricultural Overproduction Low Food Prices Loan Defaults Decreased Consumption Businesses cut back & fail Decreased Production More European Production World War I ends Decreased Money Supply D Decreased Profits European Economy Collapses Fed Increases reserve requirement 1931 Hawley-Smoot Tariff Retaliatory Tariffs (other countries) Decreased exports Tax loopholes: rich pay little income tax Unequal wealth distribution US Industrial Overproduction Overinvestment
Diagram each of the following: • I missed the bus so I was late for school • The rain today led to traffic coming to a standstill, the flooding of the Concord River, and the destruction of perfectly good driveway art at the Walsh residence. • Superior technology combined with the ingenuity and creativity of the American soldier has made the American military the most powerful in the world. • On the diagrams, label the causal connection and the events.