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U.S. Crop Update

Stay informed with the latest on U.S. corn and soybean supply, crop conditions, hog and cattle crush margins, meat production, ethanol stocks, and global market trends. Get insights on projected yields, prices, and acreage shifts for strategic decision-making. Explore key concerns and economic factors shaping the agricultural landscape. For comprehensive details, visit the provided websites.

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U.S. Crop Update

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  1. U.S. Crop Update Pork Alliance Meeting Des Moines, Iowa Oct. 24, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Prices

  5. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Projected Corn Yields

  7. Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Projected Soybean Yields

  9. Objective Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  10. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  13. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  14. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  15. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Soy Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  18. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-EIA

  19. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  20. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  21. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  22. Prices

  23. Early Prices for 2013 Crops

  24. Current Corn Futures 7.05 5.98 5.63 Source: CME Group, 10/23/2012

  25. Current Soybean Futures 14.62 12.71 12.29 Source: CME Group, 10/23/2012

  26. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  27. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  28. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  29. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture • South America gets 1st chance to respond to drought pricing • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • Drought pulled supply down, but some better yield reports are coming in • High prices are diminishing demand • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a key for crop prices • US job recovery, European financial concerns, China? • 2012/13: USDA: Corn $7.80; Soy $15.25 Futures (as of 10/23/12): Corn $7.05; Soy $14.62 • 2013/14: Futures Corn $5.98; Soy $12.71 • 2014/15: Futures Corn $5.63; Soy $12.29

  30. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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