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U.S. Crop Update

U.S. Crop Update. Pork Alliance Meeting Des Moines, Iowa Oct. 24, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Prices. Crop Conditions.

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U.S. Crop Update

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  1. U.S. Crop Update Pork Alliance Meeting Des Moines, Iowa Oct. 24, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Prices

  5. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Projected Corn Yields

  7. Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Projected Soybean Yields

  9. Objective Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  10. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  13. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  14. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  15. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Soy Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  18. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-EIA

  19. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  20. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  21. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  22. Prices

  23. Early Prices for 2013 Crops

  24. Current Corn Futures 7.05 5.98 5.63 Source: CME Group, 10/23/2012

  25. Current Soybean Futures 14.62 12.71 12.29 Source: CME Group, 10/23/2012

  26. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  27. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  28. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  29. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture • South America gets 1st chance to respond to drought pricing • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • Drought pulled supply down, but some better yield reports are coming in • High prices are diminishing demand • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a key for crop prices • US job recovery, European financial concerns, China? • 2012/13: USDA: Corn $7.80; Soy $15.25 Futures (as of 10/23/12): Corn $7.05; Soy $14.62 • 2013/14: Futures Corn $5.98; Soy $12.71 • 2014/15: Futures Corn $5.63; Soy $12.29

  30. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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