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Y376 IPE: Oil Politics

Slideshow about Y376 IPE: Oil Politics by Jeffrey Hart

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Y376 IPE: Oil Politics

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  1. Ipe12 Y376 IPE: Oil Politics October 13, 2009

  2. Oil-- Synonymous with Advanced Industrialization and Globalization <ul><li>Essential to industry as: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport fuel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industrial fuel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Raw material input </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Modern militaries’ most important material: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Portable, non-volatile, efficient, easily handled </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Churchill’s decision </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The essence of modern geopolitics: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Basis of much of modern society (suburbs, mass transit, heating, electricity, industrial base) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Access” is economic life or death </li></ul></ul> Oil-- Synonymous with Advanced Industrialization and Globalization <ul><li>Essential to industry as: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport fuel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industrial fuel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Raw material input </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Modern militaries’ most important material: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Portable, non-volatile, efficient, easily handled </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Churchill’s decision </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The essence of modern geopolitics: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Basis of much of modern society (suburbs, mass transit, heating, electricity, industrial base) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Access” is economic life or death </li></ul></ul>

  3. World Energy Consumption, 1965-2005, in Terawatts (TW) World Energy Consumption, 1965-2005, in Terawatts (TW)

  4. World Crude Oil Production and Consumption, 2003 Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University World Crude Oil Production and Consumption, 2003 Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University

  5. Top Consuming Countries, 1960-2005, in Million Barrels per Day Top Consuming Countries, 1960-2005, in Million Barrels per Day

  6. Figure 9-5. World Consumption of Petroleum, 1960-2005, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years). Figure 9-5. World Consumption of Petroleum, 1960-2005, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years).

  7. OPEC <ul><li>Organization of Oil Exporting Countries </li></ul> OPEC <ul><li>Organization of Oil Exporting Countries </li></ul>

  8. Table 9-1. Members of OPEC Country Membership Algeria 1969 Angola 2007 Ecuador Rejoined 2008 Indonesia 1962 Iran 1960 Iraq 1960 Kuwait 1960 Libya 1962 Nigeria 1971 Qatar 1961 Saudi Arabia 1960 United Arab Emirates 1967 Venezuela 1960 Table 9-1. Members of OPEC Country Membership Algeria 1969 Angola 2007 Ecuador Rejoined 2008 Indonesia 1962 Iran 1960 Iraq 1960 Kuwait 1960 Libya 1962 Nigeria 1971 Qatar 1961 Saudi Arabia 1960 United Arab Emirates 1967 Venezuela 1960

  9. Major Crude Oil Reserves, 2006 Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University Major Crude Oil Reserves, 2006 Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University

  10. . OPEC Headquarters, Vienna Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani

  11. . Figure 9-4. Production of Crude Petroleum by OPEC Countries, 1970-2007, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years).

  12. . Figure 9-7. OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1970-2007, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years).

  13. . Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1900-2003

  14. . Major Oil Routes & Chokepoints, 2000 Middle East North America Latin America Africa Western Europe Former Soviet Union Pacific Asia 15 10 3 1 Million barrels per day Hormuz Malacca Bab el-Mandab Suez Bosphorus Panama Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University

  15. . Price of Oil, Nominal and Real 1861-2006, $ per Barrel Source: Wikipedia.

  16. . Figure 9-14. U.S. Gasoline Prices in Current and Constant 2007 Prices, 1919-2007, in Cents per Gallon Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, Short Term Energy Outlook , August 2008.

  17. . Figure 9-8. U.S. Production, Consumption, and Imports of Crude Petroleum, 1949-2007, in Millions of Barrels per Day Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, International Energy Annual (various years).

  18. . Real Price of Oil and Major Disruptions in World Oil Supply

  19. . Challenges to the Seven Sisters and the rise of the cartel (OPEC) <ul><li>“ Oligopsony = An oligopsony is a market form in which the number of buyers are small while the number of sellers in theory could be large.” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Seven Sisters were also an oligopsony! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ A cartel is a group of formally independent producers whose goal it is to fix prices , to limit supply and to limit competition .” </li></ul><ul><li>OPEC was formed in 1960, but its effects were most dramatic in 1974. </li></ul><ul><li>OPEC sought to counterbalance the Seven Sisters. </li></ul><ul><li>Definitions from Wikipedia </li></ul>

  20. . Conservation Measures Taken after the Oil Price Shocks of the 1970s <ul><li>Higher taxes on gasoline and fuel oil in Western Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel efficiency standards for motor vehicles in the US </li></ul><ul><li>Accelerated adoption of energy-efficient heating for homes, offices, and factories </li></ul><ul><li>General substitution of energy-conserving technologies for energy-intensive technologies </li></ul>

  21. . Oil Prices have less impact on US Economy This doesn’t mean the US is consuming less oil, just that it is more efficient at utilizing oil to produce

  22. . A few items of note in the Politics of Oil <ul><li>Nasser & the Suez Crisis of 1956 </li></ul><ul><li>Linkage of 1970s oil price shocks to Arab-Israeli conflict </li></ul><ul><li>Invasion of Kuwait linked to Iran-Iraq war and resulting decline in Iraqi economy </li></ul><ul><li>Al Qaeda origins in Saudi Arabia and US-Saudi sponsorship of “mujaheddin” in Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>US invasion of Iraq ostensibly to resolve issues unresolved by the war in Kuwait </li></ul>

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