REM 350: Sustainable Energy & Materials Management

1. REM 350:Sustainable Energy & Materials Management Final classes Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

2. Book Chapters Chapter 4 – We’ll soon run out of oil anyway Chapter 3 – Some fossil fuel developments are necessary Chapter 5 – Energy efficiency is cheap and easy Chapter 7 – Just become carbon neutral Chapter 8 – Renewables will outcompete fossil fuels Chapter 9 – The United Nations can do it. Chapter 6 – Behavioral change is essential Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

3. Human cognition, behavior and economic growth Virtually all reputable scientists agree that doubling / tripling GHGs will raise global temperatures, intensify extreme weather events, acidify oceans and eventually raise sea levels. Research shows costs of damages from GHG emissions exceed costs of reduction – even with zero value on some species extinction! People in rich countries rely on science every day for every aspect of their lives – food, medical, travel, safety, weather forecasting. So why would anyone disbelieve or ignore climate science? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

4. Social science research on self-interest and biased beliefs • Self-serving bias – “the tendency for people to hold beliefs that are consistent with their self-interest in spite of a lack of evidence or strong contradicting evidence.” • “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” • Upton Sinclair Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

5. Beliefs about smoking and cancer Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

6. Assuming we get awareness, how do we change behavior? Behavioral change – doing something differently on a regular basis, usually involving a conscious effort initially e.g., switching to transit from driving Technology change – a one-time decision to acquire a different technology than one would otherwise e.g., buying a plug-in hybrid instead of a regular car Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

7. Evolutionary and cultural drivers of behavior Food Clothing Shelter Security / fairness / retribution Reproduction Health Status / social acceptance Comfort Social connection / kinship Mobility Private space Leisure Entertainment Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

8. Trends in human preferences The demand for energy and materials is driven by: - rising incomes, - shifting consumer preferences, - innovations Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

9. Behavioral dynamics:technology preferences Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

10. What potential for behavioral change and is it essential? Are we able to change our behavior in ways that would cause significant dematerialization and transmaterialization? How do we motivate that behavioral change? Can technological change do the heavy lifting instead? If so, how do we make technological change happen? In a world of rising human wealth (economic growth) is sustainability really possible? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

11. Exploring economic growth Assumption => economic growth will irreparably harm the planet’s life-supporting biogeophysical processes POPULATION => ECONOMY => HARM Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

12. What is the definition of economic growth? • Definition • - increase in gross domestic product • (GDP = value of all goods and services) • Cause • - adoption of an innovation that increases productivity • (productivity gain = getting more value out of a given amount of inputs – labor, energy, materials, human capital) Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

13. Examples of productivity increasing innovations Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

14. Unpacking economic growth from growth factors of planetary harm (IPAT) Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology of which, Affluence = GDP/Pop, Technology = Impact/GDP *********************************************************************************** Another approach disaggregates options to reduce negative impact (harm) Factors to be influenced are: • Toxicity of M&E throughput = HARM/M&E • M&E intensity of human activity = M&E/GDP • Affluence = GDP/POP • Population Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

15. Growth factors of planetary harm Toxicity of M&E M&E intensity of GDP Economic growth Populationgrowth (M&E = material and energy throughput) Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

16. Acting on the factors of planetary harm - I • Stabilizing POP • Stopping growth in GDP/POP • Driving M&E/GDP dramatically lower (M&E conservation) • – substantially reducing the average level of material and energy throughput per capita on the planet (likely to entail major reductions for some while for others it increases) • [a.k.a. dematerialization] • Driving HARM/M&E close to zero (reducing M&E toxicity) • – ensuring that material and energy flows do not negatively affect the planet’s life-supporting biogeophysical attributes and processes (climate stability, stratospheric ozone, clean air, clean water, fertile top soil, biodiversity, etc.) • [a.k.a. transmaterializationand detoxification] Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

17. Acting on the factors of planetary harm - II current path stabilizing POP stabilizing GDP / POP Harm combined reduction of HARM / M&E and M&E / GDP 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

18. Global population projectionsUN Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

19. Fossil fuels Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

20. Ranking options by degree of social and political difficulty Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

21. Stopping planetary harm without stopping Δ GDP / POP (econ growth) current path stabilizing POP Harm combined reduction of HARM / M&E and M&E / GDP 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

22. Reducing M&E / GDP and harm / M&E: example of energy If we just focused on reducing the flow of materials and energy (M&E/GDP) and the harm of that flow (Harm/M&E) what might that entail in the case of energy? Reduce M&E/GDP – energy efficiency and conservation (dematerialization) Reduce Harm/M&E – switching from fossil fuels to renewables for a given level of energy service (transmaterialization) Reduce Harm/M&E – carbon capture and storage if using fossil fuels (detoxification) Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

23. How can we make these two things happen? Will all humans voluntarily stop innovating and adopting innovations that improve productivity, in order to stop economic growth and resulting impacts on environment? Or, will virtually all humans voluntarily change their theirbehaviour and technology choices (reducing M&E/GDP and Harm/M&E) to drive Harm down toward zero? Or, will enough humans change their understanding of what is needed in order to change laws and institutionswhich affect the behaviourand technology choices of all? If so, will these changes – to be successful – mostly target producers or consumers? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

24. Focus on policies that target producers in order to change our technology choices • Zero electricity-generation emission standard – generators of electricity cannot emit greenhouse gas emissions • – outcome? Emissions driven toward zero from electricity generation and higher electricity prices reduces electricity demand • Zero waste from packaging regulation – producers and retailers required to ensure zero packaging waste by consumers • – outcome? Zero waste from packaging and reduced sales because of higher costs of transport and retail • Zero standby electricity standard – manufacturer of any electricity-using device must ensure it does not consume power when not in use • – outcome? Reduced electricity consumption because of technological change and some reduced sales of electricity-using technologies because of higher production costs Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

25. Toward a sustainability strategy: Policies and institutions Since behavioral change probably insufficient, we need policies that ensure E&M throughput is environmentally benign. Best chance is to focus on producers so that what they provide (energy, materials, technologies) is environmentally benign. (mostly recyclable, anything non-recyclable is biodegradable) Policies can be regulatory, but designed for economic efficiency (equi-marginal principle) by having tradable obligations (zero-net energy houses, zero-emission vehicles, zero-waste packaging, bio-degradable products) Development of such policies should be partly delegated to quasi-judicial regulatory bodies with powers to take long-term decisions that may be politically difficult. (California style) Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

26. Back to China In the late 1980s China opened its economy and world leaders committed to reducing GHGs. China’s economy and GHGs have grown annually at almost 10%. If China had frozen its GHGs at their 1990 level, what annual econ growth 1990 – 2010? 10% 8% 4% 0% -2% Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

27. International approach to climate and development 1988 – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – created by World Meteorological Organization to provide expert assessments of science related to climate change (assessments in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013?) 1992 – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – created at Rio conference on Environment and Development to negotiate united global action to prevent major climate disruption by humans 1997 – Kyoto Protocol negotiated by UNFCCC with commitments for 2010 by developed countries. Second phase failed. 1992-2012 – Twenty years of meetings while emissions rise faster Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

28. From ideal to feasible – our best hope? The issue has gotten simpler over time - everyone should act now, but not all willing - developing countries now high emitters - developing countries benefit greatly from global action - consensus-based negotiations have failed for 20 years Willing must go first (Scandinavia, Germany, UK, Netherlands, France, California, BC, others?) These climate leaders must protect their industry from free-riders with trade measures (tariffs, trade restrictions) Subsidies to developing countries will not work unless linked to binding caps or other equally effective policies. Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

29. Who pays? Would probably be fairer if richer countries paid for this. But rich will pay a lot to change their system and poor will benefit from global effort rather than suffer from global warming. And an effective global effort won’t happen without sticks and carrots. With the stakes this high, we should not allow perfection to be the enemy of good. Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

30. What does this mean for global energy access? • Are foreign investment funds necessary? • What kind of foreign funds? • Grants • Loans • Direct foreign investment • What other kinds of foreign support might help? • Capacity building in technical knowhow • Capacity building in governing institutions • Capacity building in financial markets and cooperatives Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

31. End of REM 350 Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

32. Final exam Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

33. Learning outcomes – I Introduction and key concepts Energy & power – distinguish between them 1st & 2nd laws of thermodynamics – define the laws and efficiency measures Sources & magnitudes of energy stocks and flows – main sources relative magnitudes Energy system and transformations – potential vs kinetic, primary energy forms and sources, energy supply options for humans, primary-secondary-tertiary, end-use sectors energy conversion graphic Material cycles (hydrological, sulphur, nitrogen, phosphorous, carbon) Greenhouse effect and climate change Resources and uses Resources vs reserves - McKelvey box conventional vs unconventional Reserves / production / trade – formation of coal coal types formation of oil, EOR, unconventional types countries with major oil reserves formation of natural gas, shale gas production fission and fusion, major uranium reserves key nuclear power producers major renewable energy forms, major hydropower producers, major biofuel producers, Secondary energy forms, oil refining Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

34. Learning outcomes – II Defining and measuring sustainability Defining sustainability – two key concerns graphical presentation Resource scarcity concerns – peak oil, catastrophic effects, counter arguments and evidence Waste toxicity concerns – local vs global, emissions path for 2 C, energy system implications challenges to global action on climate change, actions, policies effect on oil demand and price, effect on oil with higher production costs Other sustainability concepts – natural capital? strong and weak sustainability Technologies & systems Fossil fuel-related technologies – CCGT, CTL, GTL, CCS Nuclear power plant – fission & fusion process Renewables – hydro, solar, biomass, wind, geothermal Energy storage Fuel cell Heat pump and CHP (cogeneration) Near-zero-emission transportation Decentralized energy, smart grids, and smart meters Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

35. Learning outcomes – III Economics and pricing Pricing of energy & commodities – differential rent, scarcity rent Natural monopoly market failure – economies-of-scale, non-linear pricing Externality market failure – pricing environmental damages and risks Public good market failure and common property resources Costing energy efficiency (dematerialization) – life-cycle cost Rebound effect – direct and indirect Costing renewables (transmaterialization) – non-dispatchable energy Sustainability policies Rational policy model – CBA, MATA Policy evaluation criteria Equi-marginal principal and economic efficiency Voluntarism Subsidies – carbon offsets & carbon neutrality Conventional regulations Taxing emissions Market-oriented regulations – cap-and-trade Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

36. Learning outcomes – IV Behavior, economic growth and sustainability Self-interest bias and human cognition Defining behavioral and technology change Evolutionary and cultural drivers of behavior Behavioral change potential and necessity Zero economic growth – definition, possibility Biomimicry and a sustainability strategy Jaccard-Simon Fraser University