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2008 Presidential Elections: Candidates and Coalitions. Dan Nataf, Ph.D Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College. Overview . Evolution of Dem Party What issues are challenging parties? How have issues and coalitions combined in the primaries?.
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2008 Presidential Elections:Candidates and Coalitions Dan Nataf, Ph.D Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College
Overview • Evolution of Dem Party • What issues are challenging parties? • How have issues and coalitions combined in the primaries?
Evolution of Democratic Party • Early 21st Century • Challenge of appealing to parts of the legacy coalition (blue collar, low skilled, white males, Catholic, union members) • while also appealing to the ‘new economy’ groups • High tech, trade oriented, highly flexible/white collar workforce • Minorities, women, youth • Role of national identify – war, immigrants • 1960-1970s Transformation • Post-industrial economy changes social structure, union strength • Civil rights movement undercuts southern, white, rural, fundamentalist support • Culture war: Liberalism gets secular, tied to feminism, Affirmative Action, youth, counter-culture • Anti-war wing ascendant • Pre-1960s Democratic Party • Industrial economy • Residual anti-Republican southern support • Tied to traditional culture, nationalism
Evolution of Democratic Party Contradictions of Emerging Democratic Coalition • Post-industrial Issues • International economy • Stimulating green jobs sectors • Protecting ‘quality of life’ • Getting next generation ready for new economy • Expanded tolerance for minorities, alternative lifestyles • Legacy Issues • NAFTA – free trade vs. job • retention • Labor market competition issues • Economic security – expansion of government services to deal with uncertain economy • Acknowledgement of traditional roles and culture
How do history and current issues align? • Overview of main issues identified in exit polls • On Democratic side: • Economy • War in Iraq • Health care • America ready for a woman, African-American president? • Republican side • Terrorism • Immigration • Taxes • Cultural issues – abortion, gay marriage • Republicans ready for a ‘maverick’ candidate?
Cand. Traits: Changes, Cares, Experience, Electability by State
Voters in the Mood for Change % Saying “change’ by candidate – Nation, Texas, Ohio, Missouri
Contrast Democrats and Republicans: Most Important Issues – the Economy
Electoral Dynamics: Expected vs. Actual Obama Vote in Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin
Electoral Results by Primary Timing Nevada (C+5) New Hampshire (C+3)Iowa (O+8) South Caro. (O+28) Arizona (C+9) Arkansas (C+42) Calif (C+10) Mass (C+15) New Jersey (C+10) New Mxo (C+2) NY (C+17) Oklahoma (C+24) Tenn (C+13) Alabama (O+14) Alaska (O+50) Colo (O+35) Idaho (O+63) Illinois (O+31) Kansas (O+48) Minn (O+35) Missouri (O+1) No. Dakota (O+24 Utah (O+18) Ohio (C+10) RI (C+18) Texas (C+3) Dist. Col. (O+51) Louisiana (O+21) Maine (O+19) Maryland (O+23) Nebraska (O+36) Vermont (O+22) Virginia (O+29) Washington (O+36) Wisconsin (O+17)
Conclusion • Civil rights movement – heightens saliency of race • Clear impact on South voting patterns • But Obama’s strong performance in ‘white’ states implies ‘post-racial’ tendencies • 2. Industrial change – heightens saliency of zero-sum struggle among those adversely affected – • Clinton ‘blue collar, lower income, lower education’ appeal – reinforces idea of race/class contrast • 3. Culture war – saliency of search for socio-economic security with identity politics’ • Major issues focus on socio-economic security on Democratic side • Polarization between Latinos, whites and blacks portends continuing challenges in uniting coalition • Immigration: mostly a Republican issue, will that draw Reagan Democrats to Republicans? • Race and gender clearly signal scope of change in Dem • party