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Ag Cycles and Risk

Explore the Iowa crop prices, land values, and income trends, and get insights into the next Farm Bill. Discover the impact of agricultural cycles and risks on the industry's future.

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Ag Cycles and Risk

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  1. Ag Cycles and Risk Risk Council Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Kansas City, Missouri Oct. 25, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  3. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  4. Corn Prices and Recessions

  5. Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

  6. Iowa Land Values Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  7. Iowa Land Values – Log Scale Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  8. Land Values and Income Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  9. Land Values and Income Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

  10. Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

  11. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  12. Farm Bill Titles Commodities IX. Energy Conservation X. Hort. & Organic Ag. Trade XI. Livestock Nutrition XII. Crop Insurance Credit XIII. Commodity Futures Rural Development XIV. Miscellaneous Research XV. Trade & Taxes Forestry

  13. Ideas on the Next Farm Bill • Let’s look at the common features from the House and Senate bills • Both versions of the farm bill eliminate direct payments, countercyclical payments, ACRE, and SURE • The marketing loan program would continue • Livestock disaster programs would be reestablished

  14. Reference Prices Senate: 55% of 5-yr Olympic average MYA price House: Set by law Corn $3.70 Wheat $5.50 Soybean $8.40

  15. ARC or RLC instead of ACRE Revenue-based support program Revenues based on 5-year Olympic averages for yields and prices Yields and prices have cups (T-yields and reference prices)

  16. AMP or PLC instead of CCP Price-based support program Reference prices establish targets Works like CCP Payment rate = Max(0, Reference price – Max(MYA price, Loan rate))

  17. SCO Examples from Last Year’s Bills Source: Congressional Research Service

  18. GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

  19. GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

  20. Iowa Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  21. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  22. Liquid Fuel Usage Source: DOE-EIA

  23. Population Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  24. World Corn Markets Source: USDA

  25. Arable Land

  26. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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