Getting Students to Graduate: The National Context

1. Getting Students to Graduate:The National Context Thomas Bailey National Center for Postsecondary Research Community College Research Center Teachers College, Columbia University Presented at Higher Education in Michigan: Looking Back and Looking Ahead Ann Arbor, Michigan December 10, 2009

2. What is the Problem? • International comparisons • Skill needs of the contemporary economy • Some college is necessary for access to decent jobs • Employer needs • Continued inequality in higher ed access and completion for low income and minority students

3. Solution—Increase in Degrees and Certificates • Obama Administration • An additional 5 million CC awards by 2010 • Gates Foundation • Double the percentage of low-income young people who earn a post-secondary credential by age 26 (from 30 percent to 60 percent) • Lumina Foundation • Increase share of population with high quality credentials from 40 to 60 percent by 2050 • Cherry Commission • Double the number of graduates with degrees

4. Community College Degrees have Value in the Labor Market • Benefits of an Associate Degree (compared to a high school degree) • Men earn 15 to 30 percent more • Women earn up to 50 percent more • Certificates • Positive for women • Uncertain for men • Varies by field • Earnings benefit of an associate degree is at least half of the benefit of a B.A. • Some value in credits even without degrees

5. Community College Graduation Rates • No single definition of graduation rate or student outcomes • Student Right to Know (SRK) most commonly available • “Three” year rate for 1st time, full time, degree seeking students • US Rate—22 %

6. Michigan SRK Grad Rates • State graduation rate—15.3% (2004) • 2,700 out of almost 18,000 graduate • Lowest—Bay Mills—5.7% • Highest—Alpena—33.7%

7. Criticisms of SRK • Only full time, first time students • The time period is too short • Institutional graduation rates count transfers (without graduation) as “non-completers”

8. Accuracy of the SRK Graduation Rate (National Data) Source: BPS 96/2001

9. “CC First” PSE Students Total Credits Earned in All PSE Within Eight Years(NELS)

10. “CC First” PSE StudentsPercent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

11. “CC First” PSE Students in Lowest SES QuartilePercent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

12. “CC First” PSE Students in Various GroupsPercent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

13. Educational Access and SESExperience by 2000 for HS Class of 1992

14. “CC First” PSE StudentsPercent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Six Years (BPS96)

15. Efforts to Increase Graduation Rates? • Many definitions of outcomes—shifting role of community colleges • Focus on developmental education • Institutional Incentives—Washington State Student Achievement Initiative

16. What is “Graduation?” • Transfer programs growing faster than terminal programs • Fast growth of certificates, non-credit, and certifications • Many intermediate measures of performance consistent with varied goals of CC students

17. “ Milestone Events ” in a Student Enrollment Pathway “ Milestone Events ” in a Student Enrollment Pathway “ “ Workforce Ready Workforce Ready ” ” Employment Rate Employment Rate Skills Skills - - Deficient Completion Rate Deficient Completion Rate Basic Skills Conversion Rate Basic Skills Conversion Rate SRK Completion Rate SRK Completion Rate Developmental Developmental Completion Rate Completion Rate “ College Path ” Completion Rate “ College Path ” Completion Rate GED GED ABE ABE Start Start Complete Complete First First X Credits X Credits – – Y Credits Y Credits – – 1 Year 1 Year Certificate Certificate Associate Associate Employment Employment BA BA ESL Developmental Developmental College 1 Term College - Level Degree [Field Earnings] Degree ESL Developmental Developmental College 1 Term College - Level Degree [Field Earnings] Degree Work Work Credit College - Level [ “ Transfer Ready ” ] Work Work Credit College - Level [ “ Transfer Ready ” ] Reading Reading Reading Reading [ [ “ “ College Path College Path ” ” ] ] [ [ “ “ Workforce Ready Workforce Ready ” ” ] ] Writing Writing Writing Writing Math Math Math Math Many Alternative Outcome Measures Source: Pete Ewell, NCHEMS, 2006.

18. Washington State Research Partnership • Study of ABE to college transition based on state longitudinal data base • Transition is rare • No detectable earnings benefit with less than 30 credits • Introduction of IBEST—ABE to college initiative • Development of the Student Achievement Initiative rewarding colleges for intermediate points

19. For more information: Please visit us on the web at http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu, where you can download presentations, reports, CCRC Briefs, and sign-up for news announcements. Community College Research Center Institute on Education and the Economy, Teachers College, Columbia University 525 West 120th Street, Box 174, New York, NY 10027 E-mail: ccrc@columbia.edu Telephone: 212.678.3091 CCRC funders include: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Lumina Foundation for Education, The Ford Foundation, National Science Foundation (NSF), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Institute of Education Sciences of the U.S. Department of Education