Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS

1. Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS November 7, 2012

2. GATF Meeting of October 19, 2012 • Items Discussed: • Status of 2012 Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) Study • Update on NPRR489, Planning Reserve Margin, and PGRR022, Removal of Planning Reserve Margin Calculation Methodology • Discussion on next scheduled CDR report in December • Review of potential changes to the way Energy Efficiency, Demand Response and Renewables are handled in the CDR.

3. LOLE Study Update • Kevin Hanson updated GATF on the current status of the LOLE Study. • Revised date of draft LOLE results - November/December 2012 • Revised date of final LOLE report – December 2012 / January 2013 • Primary reason for delay – wind data issues: • ERCOT staff received the initial wind shapes from AWS in middle of May 2012 • Data was delivered to Ecco (vendor performing the LOLE study) • Ecco delivered initial results end of August • ERCOT analyzed results and questioned their accuracy • Existing resources were being modeled with new technologies • ERCOT received new wind shapes from AWS end of September • Currently reviewing and comparing to actual output to add “reality” test to analysis

4. LOLE Study Update • Kevin’s presentation can be found at the October 19th GATF meeting page. • What does the delay in the LOLE study mean? • The December 2013 CDR will utilize the current 13.75% reserve margin. • We likely will not have a revised 1 in 10 year event reserve margin number until after the first of the year. • Any significant changes (new reserve margin, solar, potential changes to load forecasting, etc.) will occur in the May 2013 CDR and GATF will be reviewing these issues over the next few months.

5. NPRR489 and PGRR022 • GATF received an update on NPRR489, Planning Reserve Margin, and PGRR022, Removal of Planning Reserve Margin Calculation Methodology • The purposes of the NPRR and the PGRR are simply to “swap” the planning reserve margin methodology from the planning guides to the protocols. • Both are moving through the ERCOT process on a normal timeline. • Any changes to the planning reserve margin methodology will be made using subsequent NPRRs.

6. CDR Discussion • The GATF agreed that due to the delays in the LOLE study, any changes to the planning reserve margin methodology should wait until the May 2013 CDR report. • Calvin Opheim provided GATF an update on the current status and ongoing work being done on the long term load forecast. • A new long term load forecast should be completed by the end of November. • No huge changes, but ERCOT will be utilizing 2 different economic forecasting services (Moody’s and Woods and Poole.) • A deep dive of the load forecast will be conducted at the next GATF meeting.

7. Miscellaneous • Cyrus Reed provided a presentation discussing potential changes to the way Energy Efficiency, Demand Response and Renewables are being handled in the CDR. • GATF agreed that any changes to these items will be discussed in future meetings in time for the May 2013 CDR. • Presentation posted at October 19th GATF meeting page. • Next GATF Meeting – Scheduled for Monday, December 3rd. • Deep dive of load forecasting from Calvin Opheim. • Questions or Comments?