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Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS

Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS. January 13, 2013. Update on Recent GATF Activities. GATF Meeting of January 18, 2013: ERCOT Staff (Warren Lasher and Kevin Hanson) reviewed the Loss of Load study results.

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Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS

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  1. Generation Adequacy Task Force Update to WMS January 13, 2013

  2. Update on Recent GATF Activities • GATF Meeting of January 18, 2013: • ERCOT Staff (Warren Lasher and Kevin Hanson) reviewed the Loss of Load study results. • The Loss of Load study summary presentation can be found at the January 18th GATF meeting page. • GATF (non-voting body) did come to consensus on two items regarding the Loss of Load results (discussed later). • Warren and Kevin are here today if there are any questions concerning the Loss of Load study.

  3. Study Results – from ERCOT presentation at GATF • Study results are dependent on selection of probabilities for the 15 weather years, as shown in the following graph:

  4. Study Findings – from ERCOT presentation at GATF • Determination of the relationship between reserve margin and likelihood of loss-of-load events is heavily dependent on assumed likelihood of 2011 weather conditions • Using a 1-event-in-10-years loss-of-load criteria leads to a target reserve margin of ~13.7 % to ~18.9% depending on weather year assumptions • Study results indicate an effective load carrying capability of 14.2% for non-coastal wind resources, and 32.9% for coastal wind resources

  5. GATF Discussion Concerning Study Results and Consensus Items • Discussion excerpts from GATF, but no action taken. • ERCOT staff believes the mean temperatures seem to be rising over time. • There was also discussion that the methodology used for wind resources in the loss of load study (8760 hours) is different than the way we handle it in the CDR (one hour peak). • Consensus Items from GATF. • ERCOT’s Loss of Load study results are reasonable. • The green line should not be considered when determining the reserve margin target (totally ignoring 2011 weather is not reasonable).

  6. Next Steps? • Does WMS want to make a recommendation concerning the loss of load study results? • GATF next steps could depend on what happens at the March 14th workshop. • There will likely be several GATF meetings between now and the May release of CDR, but March 14th workshop may drive GATF agenda. • Any other questions, comments, suggestions from WMS?

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