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Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power Predictions

Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power Predictions. A Case Study for the Estinnes Wind Power Plant. Kristof De Vos *, Johan Driesen – K.U.Leuven Athanios Kyriazis – 3E. Presentation Objectives.

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Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power Predictions

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  1. Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power Predictions A Case Study for the Estinnes Wind Power Plant Kristof De Vos*, Johan Driesen – K.U.Leuven AthaniosKyriazis – 3E

  2. Presentation Objectives • Insight in the impact of prediction errors on imbalance costs for wind power generators. • Insight in the impact of market mechanisms facilitating improved forecast models on these imbalance costs. • Postponed market closure • Intraday markets • 15’ market products EWEA 2011

  3. Table of Contents • Imbalance Settlement & Wind Power Predictions • Case Study I: Estinnes wind power plant • Case Study II: Improved forecasting model • Conclusions EWEA 2011

  4. Imbalance Settlement • Wind = variable RES-E • Limited controllability • Limited predictability • SYSTEM IMBALANCES • System balance = real-time balance between off-take and injections • Prerequisite for system security • Responsibility of the TSO • Activation of reserves EWEA 2011

  5. Imbalance Settlement • Imbalance Settlement Mechanism = costs are accounted to responsible market players. • Balancing Responsible Party (BRP) • Real-time portfolio balance (15’) • Day-Ahead nominations (Gate Closure: 14h00 D-1) • Prediction Tools: • Prediction error • Imbalance volume • Imbalance cost NREL, 2011 EWEA 2011

  6. Imbalance Settlement • Improving prediction tools: • Accuracy, Resolution, Horizon • Requires adapted market mechanisms: • Postponed market closure • Later prediction horizons (improved accuracy) • Intraday trading • Later prediction horizons • Intraday price risk • 15’ market products (~ imbalance settlement) • Accurate market bidding EWEA 2011

  7. Case Study: Estinnes • Predictions 3E: • 4 daily runs  7 prediction horizons • DA: 00h, 06h, 12h, 18h • ID: 00h, 06h,12h • Availability: + 6h • Electricity trading: • Belpex DAM • Imbalance Tariff Elia EWEA 2011

  8. Case Study Estinnes • 2/4/2010 – 28/09/2010 (180 days) • No wind power plant effects • No unavailability Wind speed Measurements Real-time output ENERCON E-126 7.5 MW power curve Prediction error Wind Speed Predictions Output prediction EWEA 2011

  9. Market Prices • Day-Ahead Market: Belpex • Imbalance Tariffs: Elia • Intraday-Prices: Synthetic Average intraday prices in Euro as a linear interpolation of the Belpex DAM and imbalance tariffs EWEA 2011

  10. Market Closure Timing • Reference: 11h D-1 (00H run) • Alternatively: 12h, 18h D-1 (06, 12H run) • Increasing imbalance costs due to asymmetric improvement: • Impact asymmetric imbalance tariffs • Take into account trends in imbalance prices EWEA 2011

  11. Intraday Trading • Reference: 11h D-1 • Alternatively: 6 intraday slots • Increasing imbalance costs due to non-converging improvements: • Increasing trading volumes • Large negative value when using rolling intraday EWEA 2011

  12. 15’ market products • Reference: 11h D-1 • Alternatively: 11 D-1, 15’ Belpex DAM product • Insignificant impact on imbalance costs: • Constant Belpex DAM prices • Averaging EWEA 2011

  13. Improved Forecasting Model • New day-ahead prediction model 3E • Synthetic intraday predictions • Linear converging from day-ahead prediction (00h run) until real-time output. EWEA 2011

  14. Improved Forecasting Model • Results: • Decreasing imbalance costs, increasing profits • Positive value market mechanisms EWEA 2011

  15. Conclusions • Value suggested market mechanisms depends strongly on forecast model characteristics. • Requires: • Symmetric improvements • Converging intraday predictions • Recommendations for further research: • Further improve prediction models • Optimizing market bids taking into account uncertainty balancing tariff. EWEA 2011

  16. Questions? Thankyouforyourattention! Kristof De Vos Kristof.DeVos@esat.kuleuven.be • More information @ http://www.7mw-wec-by-11.eu EWEA 2011

  17. Appendix 1 EWEA 2011

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