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Meeting of Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates FSCPE September, 2001

Intercensal Population Estimates Program: Beyond Vintage 2001 Signe Wetrogan Assistant Chief for Population Estimates and Projections. Meeting of Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates FSCPE September, 2001.

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Meeting of Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates FSCPE September, 2001

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  1. Intercensal Population Estimates Program: Beyond Vintage 2001Signe WetroganAssistant Chief for Population Estimates and Projections Meeting of Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates FSCPE September, 2001

  2. The Integration of the American Community Survey and the Population Estimates Program PIE Program for Integrated Estimates

  3. Current Relationship • One way relationship • Intercensal Estimates are controls to ACS • Provide controls for counties by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin • Intercensal Estimates Program provide basic population counts • American Community Survey (ACS) provides additional characteristics • I.e., education, nativity, migration

  4. Issues With Current Relationship • Intercensal Estimates not taking advantage of wealth of data from ACS • e.g. nativity, migration, household formation • Different residence concepts • Intercensal estimates based on census residence which is usual residence • ACS based on 2-month rule • Subcounty boundary differences

  5. Approaches to Resolving Issues • Use Data from ACS to inform Estimates • Continuous, timely data on foreign born to develop measures of unauthorized migration, emigration, and temporary migration • Measures of internal migration provide means of identifying possible bias in IRS based migration

  6. Approaches to Resolving Issues • Use Data from ACS to inform Estimates • Data on living arrangements provide information on vacancy and persons per household • Data on births in last year provide consistent numerators and denominators to develop fertility measures

  7. Approaches to Resolving Issues • Use Data from ACS to inform Estimates • Data by race/Hispanic origin may help measure changes in racial identification patterns

  8. Approaches to Resolving Issues • Use Data from Related ACS Operations and Geographic Updates to inform Estimates • Relate changes in MAF to changes in number of housing units • Develop mechanism to incorporate information from address updating program into the Intercensal Estimates Program

  9. Additional Enhancements to Intercensal Estimates Program • Introduce modifications to Census 2000 into Estimates base • CQR Changes to be incorporated into Intercensal Estimates beginning with vintage 2002 estimates • Estimates for July 2002 to be released in late 2002/2003 will be first to incorporate CQR updates

  10. Additional Enhancements to Intercensal Estimates Program • Improve measures of international migration components • Examine alternative data sets • Temporary migration data files at INS • Consultation with Mexico and Canada • Foreign Censuses • School enrollment data at local level • Continue consultation with outside experts • Implement annual measurement using ACS

  11. Additional Enhancements to Intercensal Estimates Program • Develop integrated system to produce all population estimates and projections • Phase in results of Population Estimates and Projections Integration System (PEPIS)

  12. Additional Enhancements to Intercensal Estimates Program • Implement preliminary results of Post 2000 Estimates Program (P2KEP) • Methods Conference - March 1999 • No new methods identified • Focus on new and emerging data sets • Support state participation - FY 2000-2001 • 8 states submitted proposals and received Census Bureau funding

  13. Additional Enhancements to Intercensal Estimates Program • Implement preliminary results of Post 2000 Estimates Program (P2KEP) • Evaluation of State/Census developed methods- FY 2001 - 2002 • Ongoing using criteria developed by Methods Subcommittee • Review by Methods Subcommittee • Integrate State developed county and subcounty estimates - FY 2003 • Introduce for vintage 2003

  14. Additional Enhancements to Intercensal Estimates Program • Expand involvement of FSCPE agencies in estimates production • Develop tools to facilitate FSCPE review of outputs • Capitalize on GIS tools developed for Count Review operation • Use Internet options

  15. Additional Enhancements to Intercensal Estimates Program • Expand involvement of FSCPE agencies in estimates production • Expand role of FSCPE in Census Bureau programs • SAIPE involvement • Geographic Updating Program • LUCA • ACS • Explore integration of alternative State migration estimates developed by FSCPE

  16. Additional Enhancements to Intercensal Estimates Program • Produce final intercensal estimates that benchmark to 1990 Census and Census 2000 • Incorporate international migration evaluation • Incorporate Mathematical smoothing • Incorporate Results of Race Evaluations • Incorporate Results of Coverage Evaluation Studies

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