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Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment. ÁSGEIR JULIUSSON Periodical : Scandinavian Journal of Psychology Latest impact factor : 1.078. Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment. O utline :. Terminology. Abstract. Design. Results. End.
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Optimism as modifier of escalation of commitment ÁSGEIR JULIUSSON Periodical:Scandinavian Journal of Psychology Latest impact factor:1.078
Outline: Terminology Abstract Design Results End
Terminology • cognition and Neurosciences:认知和神经系统科学 • escalation of commitment:承诺升级 • the assumption of the manipulation:控制论 • sunk cost:沉没成本 • decision making:决策 • empirical research:经验主义的研究
Terminology • A has been termed B: A的术语叫做B • paradigm:范式 • R&D funds:研发资金 • overgeneralization of a “don’t waste” decision rule:“不浪费”决策规则的过度泛化 • prospect theory:前景理论 • risk seeking:风险追寻
Terminology • mental budgeting:心理账户 • the context of an investment:投资情境 • gain-maximizing decision goal:获益最大化的决策目标 • loss-minimizing decision goal:损失最小化的决策目标 • A has been operationalized as:A的操作定义是…
Terminology • in the present study:在本研究中 • investment scenarios:投资情境 • induce optimism/pessimism:诱发乐观/悲观 • loss aversion:损失规避 • ambiguous probabilities:不确定的概率 • net return:净利润
Terminology • A as modifier of B :A是B的调节变量 • mean age:平均年龄 • in different random orders:顺序是随机的 • an equal number was randomly assigned to:等量随机分配到… • preference ratings:偏好等级 • manipulation check:检验控制 • be highly correlated:有较高的相关
Terminology • Cronbach’s alpha:克朗巴赫α系数 • A yielded a significant main effect:A的主效应显著 • a 2 by 2 factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA):2×2的方差分析 • mixed factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures:重复测量的混合方差分析
Terminology • reliability:信度 • paired-samples t-tests:配对样本t 检验 • a significant effect of the interaction between A and B:A和B的交互作用显著
Abstract_1 • To study whether optimism-pessimism modifies escalation of commitment, 52 undergraduates were told that they had made an unsuccessful investment, then they chose to continue or discontinue this investment. • 为了研究乐观和悲观对承诺升级是否有调节作用,52名大学生被告知他们已经做了一向不成功的投资,然后让他们选择是继续还是停止这项投资。
Abstract_2 • Optimism about future returns was induced in one group by varying the probability of a successful outcome from an initial low to medium, pessimism was induced in another group by varying this probability from an initial high to medium. 一组被试对于未来回报抱有乐观的态度,是通过成功的概率从低等上升到中等的投资材料诱发出来的。相反,给予悲观的被试的成功概率是从高等下降到中等。
Abstract_3 • Supporting the assumption of the manipulation, the results showed that optimistic participants preferred to continue investments whereas pessimistic participants preferred not to. • 实验结果支持了控制论的假设,乐观的被试更喜欢继续投资,而悲观的被试会停止继续投资。
Abstract_4 • As predicted, when the sunk cost increased, optimism led to escalation of commitment, whereas pessimism led to de-escalation of commitment. These effects were strengthened when probability of a successful outcome was ambiguous. • 正如假设的那样,沉没成本升高,乐观的被试会出现承诺升级,悲观的被试不会。当成功概率是不确定的时候这个效应会更明显。
Design Optimism Escalation of commitment Sunk cost Success probability 2(乐观/悲观)× 2(沉没成本高/低)×2(成功概率确定/不确定)的方差分析
Result_1 • Optimism-pessimism modified investment decisions and escalation of commitment:Participantswho were optimistic about future returns preferredto continue investment ,thus leading to escalation of commitment.
Result_2 • The interactionbetween optimism and sunk cost approachedsignificance:sunk cost had different effects on optimistic than pessimistic participants, increasing the former’s preference for continuing investment and decreasing the latter’s preference for continuing investment.
Result_3 • The interaction between optimism and ambiguous probability was close to significant:Ambiguous probabilities more than exact probabilities tended to increase optimistic participants’ preference for continuing investment, and to decrease pessimistic participants’ preference for continuing investment.
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