December 2002

1. December 2002 Section 9 Communicating the Science

2. Short History of Climate Change Science-Policy Interaction

3. An early warning “Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on long-term projects…based on the assumption that past climate data…are a reliable guide to the future. This is no longer a good assumption…” UNEP/WMO/ICSU Conference Villach, Austria 1985

4. “Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear war.” World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere: Toronto, June 1988

5. UN General Assembly early resolutions on climate change • 1988 • recognizes climate change as a common concern of mankind • request to WMO and UNEP to establish IPCC • 1989 • supports UNEP proposal to prepare for • negotiations of a FCCC • decides to convene UNCED • 1990 • establishes the Intergovernmental • Negotiating Committee for the FCCC

6. ..which eventually led to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) Ultimate Objective of the FCCC “...to achieve...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations...at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system…”

7. Science Promoting the science needed as a sound basis for decision making on mitigation and adaptation Mitigation Mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation Adapting to the changes that are inevitable, no matter what mitigative action is taken UNFCCC identified three key areas of response

8. Challenges for Climate Change Science-Policy Interaction

9. Climate change science is complex science • Involves many different disciplines • Has benefited from several decades of intensive research • Globally, several thousand papers currently published each year, at an annual cost of ~$US 3 billion • Like a huge jigsaw puzzle having 10s of thousands of pieces • Requires comprehensive international effort involving experts from all disciplines involved to properly assess

10. International climate system research is well coordinated and very active • Coordinated through World Climate Programme • WMO, ICSU, UNEP • WCRP, WCIP, GCOS etc • Implemented within national research programs • Thousands of peer-reviewed papers published each year • Regular national and international assessments

11. Research Scientists Policy-Public Traditional Process of Science Advice to Policy

12. However, scientists face important challenges in communicating complex science to others • The nature of ‘normal’ scientific investigation and debate • based on logic rather than cognitive processes • adversarial, not focused on consensus development • debate primarily within disciplines • Isolationism • many are “too busy” to talk to non-scientists! • inadequate interdisciplinarity, especially between physical and social scientists • Inadequate training in communication skills • dealing with media • addressing misinformation • understanding policy development process

13. Hence, in order to be policy relevant, need to move beyond ‘normal’ science • The ‘normal’ science process fails the policy needs when the science is: • Complex, multi-disciplinary • Uncertain • Of urgent relevance to policy issues • Rather, need process that • Is inclusive • Undertakes comprehensive assessments of the science across disciplines, focusing on what we know • Uses expanded peer review to also ensure input of stakeholders • Revisits the issue regularly • POST-NORMAL SCIENCE (as per SAGE report)

14. The IPCC process for providing science advice is a good example of ‘post-normal’ science • Use many authors to prepare assessments on a broad range of themes • Selection of lead author for assessment chapters based on internationally recognized expertise • Content of each chapter based on published literature, with invited contributions from other experts • Chapters sent to peer scientists for review, amended, then sent to peer scientists and governments for second review. • Final content is responsibility of lead authors, and is accepted (not approved) by IPCC as expert contribution • Consensus summary for policy makers developed and approved collaboratively by IPCC and lead authors • 2001 WGI report alone involved 1078 experts

15. The Bottom Line SPM ~3 page Overview Technical Summary 10 pages Assessment Synthesis ~ 60 pages Details Expert Science 699 papers SCIENCE TO POLICY IPCC TAR CHAPTER 3

16. Canadians have played a prominent role in the IPCC assessments Canadian Involvement in IPCC Third Assessment Report

17. The IPCC has become the principle source of science advice to policy makers on climate system research 1990 1992 1995 1997 2001 First Report RIO Second Report Kyoto Third Report Increasing Confidence Bonn & Marrakesh Cautious

18. Are the IPCC results credible? Joint statement by Academies of Science from 17 other countries – May 2001 “The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.”

19. US NRC Committee also advised the Whitehouse that the IPCC assessments are very credible • Full IPCC TAR WGI report is “an admirable summary of research activities in climate science” • The full report is adequately summarized in the Technical Summary • The SPM puts stronger emphasis on concerns, less emphasis on uncertainties than full report • all changes were made with consent of convening lead authors • most changes had little impact on contents

20. “The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is inevitable. The question is not whether climate will change..but rather how much.. how fast, and where” Robert Watson, Chair of IPCC to CoP6 Delegates, The Hague, November 2000

21. Canadian science advice on climate change is undertaken within this international context Policy-Public Communications De-jargoned Science Advice IPCC National Assessment Assessment Research scientists

22. In many respects, this is consistent with the principles for the Effective Use of S&T Advice in Canadian Government Decision Making (SAGE) • Principle I: Early issue identification • Maintain strong links with broad science community • Principle II: Inclusiveness • Capture input from diverse scientific schools of thought and opinion • Principle III: Sound science and science advice • Quality, integrity, objectivity • Improved communications • Principle IV: Uncertainty and risk • Communicate uncertainty explicitly and effectively • Employ risk management approaches • Principle V: Transparency and openness • Public access to findings and policy • Principle VI: Review • Evaluate policies against new science

23. Climate change impacts Feedbacks Non-climate change stresses Interactions Enhanced greenhouse effect Environmental impacts Air pollution Anthropogenic emissions However, both scientists and policy makers must understand and consider the complex feedbacks between the climate system and society Human & Natural Systems Climate System • Floods and droughts • Biodiversity • Animal and plant health • Temperature rise • Sea level rise • Precipitation change Atmospheric Concentrations Socio-Economic Development Paths • Carbon dioxide • Methane • Nitrous oxide • Aerosols • Main drivers are population, energy,economic growth, technology and land use

24. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS are useful tools for describing these feedbacks and linkages, and for exploring policy options • The models seek to simulate the many feedbacks between social behaviour and climate system response in a dynamic, coupled system • Inputs: Socio, technical and economic data; policies; initial conditions and criteria for avoiding danger due to climate change • Outputs: climate change, sea level rise, impacts

25. One useful learning application with an IAM is the SAFE LANDING ANALYSIS • Select designated danger thresholds for analysis (e.g., dT; dT/dt;dSLR) • Use maximum rate of emission reductions as another input threshold (%/yr) • Use model in backcasting mode to identify range of safe emissions in near term that avoid exceeding thresholds in future decades

26. Safe corridor for 1st decade Safe corridor for 2nd decade Global emission path Example: Limits dT<2C; dT/decade<0.15C; SLR<30 cm; Emission reduction rate<2%/yr

27. Another application is the INTERACTIVE SCENARIO SCANNER (ISS) • A tool for involving policy makers in developing policy scenarios • Based on outputs from Integrated Assessment Models • Allows user to apply alternative assumptions about socio-economic variables, climate sensitivities, and danger thresholds • A ‘willed future’ approach using Kaya formula factors

28. Which are: • KAYA formula for fossil fuel emissions: CO2 Emissions = Population • x GDP per capita (wealth) • x energy/GDP (energy efficiency) • x Carbon/energy (energy type) • Land use and change for biological emissions

29. Population growth (%/yr) Change energy intensity (%/yr) 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 - 1.5 -2.0 -2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Income growth (%/yr) Change CO2/GJ (%/yr) 1.0 0.5 0.0 - 0.5 -1.0 -1.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Illustrative willed-future for ISS simulation Example for Annex I countries

30. dT CO2 Concentration Danger Caution OK dT/decade SLR …and resulting implications for risk of danger (using same thresholds as previously used)

31. Some concluding thoughts: • The evidence for a changing climate is clear • Humans are likely the primary cause for recent changes • The climate will get MUCH, MUCH warmer • Impacts will provide benefits and adverse effects • We can reduce the risks by mitigation • We MUST learn to adapt as well as mitigate • Good data is critical to the climate change debate

32. “To survive in the world we have transformed, we must learn to think in a new way. As never before, the future of each depends on the good of all.” 100 Nobel Laureates Oslo, December 2001

33. Some Relevant EC and NRCan websites • Environment Canada - climate change (general) • www.ec.gc.ca/climate • NRCan - climate change (general) • http://climatechange.nrcan.gc.ca/ • Science Assessment • www.msc.ec.gc.ca/saib/ • Adaptation • http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca • Climate Modelling • www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/ • Climate Trends & Attribution • www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/ • Canada Country Study • www.ec.gc.ca/climate/ccs/