1 / 16

December 2002

December 2002. Section 5b Global Impacts of Climate Change (2). World food distribution will change For wheat, maize and rice, yields are expected to increased in many temperate regions, but decline in most tropical and sub-tropical areas. +. +. +. -. -. -. -. ++. +. -. --. --. -.

truly
Download Presentation

December 2002

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. December 2002 Section 5bGlobal Impacts of Climate Change (2)

  2. World food distribution will change For wheat, maize and rice, yields are expected to increased in many temperate regions, but decline in most tropical and sub-tropical areas + + + - - - - ++ + - -- -- - -- - -

  3. Adaptation can help to a limited extent

  4. However, the magnitude and even sign, of these impacts are scenario dependent Region NAmer CM3 CM2 SAmer WEur EEur Africa SEAsia -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Change in Cereal Production (Mt/yr)

  5. By 2080, the number of malnourished people could increase by 80 million

  6. 2xCO 2 Sockeye Salmon Distribution in July Distribution of fish stocks will also change significantly Normal

  7. Many countries will experience major changes in water resources Model projections for annual runoff for 2050 relative to 1961-90 CM2 CM3

  8. Decreased water supply in many parts of the world is a major concern • Up to 3 billion additional • people stressed by water • shortages

  9. The health of many people will be affected • Diseases • Heat • Weather disasters • Air and water quality

  10. Likelihood of Population altered at risk distribution Disease Vector (millions) Present distribution with warming Malaria mosquito 2,100 (sub)tropics üü Schistosomiasis water snail 600 (sub)tropics üü Filariasis mosquito 900 (sub)tropics ü Onchocerciasis black fly 90 Africa/Latin America ü (river blindness) African tsetse fly 50 tropical Africa ü trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) Dengue mosquito unavailable tropics üü Yellow fever mosquito unavailable tropical South ü America & Africa Likely ü Very likely üü Vector (insect)-borne Diseases

  11. Malaria alone could affect up to an additional 300 million people by 2080 Multiplier >2 1 .9 to 2 1 .8 to 1 .9 1 .7 to 1 .8 1 .6 to 1 .7 1 .5 to 1 .6 1 .4 to 1 .5 1 .3 to 1 .4 1 .2 to 1 .3 1 .1 to 1 .2 1 to 1 .1 decrease new risk

  12. Change in Cooling Degree Days (2090) Summer heat stress for humans and livestock will increase around the world

  13. +3.4% +3.7% +2.0% +2.1% +1.1% +1.0% -0.1% -4.1% -1.7% Net market effects of even a very modest (1C) climate change are expected to be negative in most developing countries Percent of GDP

  14. West Antarctic Collapse Large methane release from hydrates Thermohaline circulation collapse There are also small risks of impacts of catastrophic proportions

  15. These reasons for concern amplify with time and rate of global warming

  16. By 2080, many millions will be at risk due to climate change Hunger, malaria, flooding Water shortage water malaria hunger flooding Change in Temperature (C)

More Related