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SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer October 2011 Findings

SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer October 2011 Findings. Date: 4 th November 2011 . Content of this Presentation . Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition The October 2011 Survey Findings High Cost of Living ICC Process Presidential Candidate Preference .

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SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer October 2011 Findings

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  1. SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) BarometerOctober 2011 Findings Date: 4th November 2011

  2. Content of this Presentation • Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition • The October 2011 Survey Findings • High Cost of Living • ICC Process • Presidential Candidate Preference

  3. Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition

  4. Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition • About Ipsos: • Founded in France in 1975 (and was in 68 countries) • Listed on the Paris Stock Exchange (since 1999) • Ipsos and Synovate, the 3rd largest global market research company in a consolidating market comprising • Way forward: • Our new corporate identify “Ipsos-Synovate” • Under Ipsos-Synovate management structure and staff remain the same

  5. Methodology

  6. Poll Methodology Dates of polling 15th – 23rdOctober 2011 2,000 respondents Sample Size Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Sampling methodology Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

  7. Sampling Frame Statistics SPEC Survey was based on the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Censushttp://www.scribd.com/doc/3339642/Official-Results-of-the-2007-General-elections

  8. Findings Key problems facing Kenyans today

  9. “In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” SINGLE MENTION ONLY (by Total) Base All Respondents : April (n=2,000) ; July (n=2,000)October (n=2,000)

  10. Prices of key commodities Source: Local shops / retail outlets collected by Synovate Inflation rate – October (18.9%) ; September (17.3%) ; January (5.42%) Source - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)

  11. Performance Ratings - Coalition Government

  12. “How would you rate the overall or general performance of the coalition government over the last three months?” % indicating that they are approve/somewhat approve Base: (All respondents)

  13. “How well do you think our coalition government is dealing with the problem of ..... Are they performing..?” by Total % indicating that government is doing very well + doing well in dealing with the problem Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  14. International Criminal Court (ICC) Process

  15. “Did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” By Total Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  16. “Did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” (By Province) Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  17. “How did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” (By Total) Internet Base: n=1,536 (Those who followed proceedings )

  18. “Do you think that the ICC Confirmation Hearings against the Ocampo 6 were conducted fairly?” (By province – those who followed/ watched proceedings) % indicating that the hearings were conducted fairly Base: n=1,536 (respondents who watched proceedings)

  19. “If the ICC fails to send the Ocampo 6 to trial, do you think they should be tried in Kenya?” (By Total) Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  20. Those who support trials ICC Process (Trend over 12 months) % who support the ICC Process % who support ICC Trials Summons issued to appear at The Hague Pre-ICC confirmation of hearing trials Post-ICC confirmation of hearing trials Before Ocampo 6 list was unveiled After Ocampo 6 list was unveiled

  21. Those who support trials ICC Process – By Province (Trend over 12 months)

  22. “What did Kibaki do recently to support Francis Muthaura in his ICC case?” by Total Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  23. “Do you think President Kibaki did the right thing by writing a letter to the ICC in defence of Francis Muthaura?” (by Total) Base: n=419 (Those aware of letter written by President Kibaki )

  24. Presidential Elections 2012

  25. 17 Aspirants have declared interest in the Presidency: Professor James Ole Kiyiapi Professor Chirau Ali Makwere Isaac Jafar Paul Muite Mutava Musyimi Eugene Wamalwa Moses Wetangula Bifwoli Wakoli Martha Karua Uhuru Kenyatta Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka William Ruto Charity Ngilu Moses Mudavadi Peter Kenneth Mike Sonko

  26. “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total • Reasons for being undecided: • Waiting final list of candidates (39% of undecided) • Seeking more information on candidates (40% of undecided) Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  27. “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total

  28. Presidential Candidate Choice -Time Series Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  29. “ If elections were to be held today, how likely do you think it is for any presidential candidate to win on the first round?” by Total Very likely + somewhat likely (67%)

  30. “Under the New Constitution, what % of votes must a presidential candidate attain to win in the 1st round of elections?” (by Province) Those who indicate the right answer Must garner at least 50% + 1 of votes cast

  31. “Who would you vote for in case of a run off between…..?” By Total

  32. “Who would you vote for in case of a run off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta?” (By Province) DK (don’t know) : NR (no response) 8% 19% 12% 27% 7% 9% 13% 23%

  33. Candidate voted for in 2007 viz a viz those they would vote for in 2012. (By Total) Those who voted for Mwai Kibaki in the 2007 would vote for Those who voted for Raila Odinga the 2007 would vote for

  34. “How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions? By Total

  35. Press Kit • PowerPoint Presentation (on CD) • Additional information on the methodology, sample distribution by setting (urban and rural), province and district. • Detailed Press releases in MS-Word (on CD and hard copy) • Audio recording of Kiswahili version of findings (on CD) All Synovate polls posted on the website below; www.synovate.co.ke

  36. Questions? Comments?

  37. Detailed Poll Methodology

  38. POLL METHODOLOGY The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 15thto 23rd, October 2011 To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.

  39. Poll Methodology (Cont..) These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews. The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 20% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

  40. Sampling Frame Statistics SPEC Survey was based on the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Censushttp://www.scribd.com/doc/3339642/Official-Results-of-the-2007-General-elections

  41. Sampling Frame – Urban & Rural

  42. Methodology Sample distribution – District Level • Boost sample for Mandera, Kakuma Towns and Daadab Towns; 250 each

  43. Methodology Sample distribution (continued)

  44. Methodology Sample distribution (continued)

  45. For further information contact:Maggie.Ireri@synovate.comor Victor.Rateng@synovate.com

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