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SPSRB Project Plan on GOES Mesoscale Convective System Index

SPSRB Project Plan on GOES Mesoscale Convective System Index. Project Lead: Dan Lindsey, STAR/RAMMB Backup Project Lead: Jay Hanna, SAB July 24, 2007. Outline. Integrated Product Team (IPT) Requirements Capabilities Assessment IT System Architecture Plan of Operations

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SPSRB Project Plan on GOES Mesoscale Convective System Index

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  1. SPSRB Project Plan on GOES Mesoscale Convective System Index Project Lead: Dan Lindsey, STAR/RAMMB Backup Project Lead: Jay Hanna, SAB July 24, 2007 V13.7 June 2008

  2. Outline • Integrated Product Team (IPT) • Requirements • Capabilities Assessment • IT System Architecture • Plan of Operations • Project Milestones • Funding • Spending plan and tasks V13.7 June 2008

  3. Integrated Product Team (IPT) • IPT Lead: Dan Lindsey, STAR/RAMMB • IPT Backup Lead: Jay Hanna, SAB • NESDIS team: • STAR – Jaime Daniels • OSDPD – Limin Zhao • OSD – Tom Schott • User team • Lead: Michael Eckert, HPC • Others: Sheldon Kusselson, Chuck Kadin, Tom Baldwin, John Simko, SAB • Oversight Panel (OP) lead and product priority: ICAPOP V13.7 June 2008

  4. Requirement • Requirement(s) • SPSRB User Request # 0705-0006 from HPC • Develop a GOES product which predicts the likelihood that convection undergoes upscale growth into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) • User community • Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) – QPF forecasts • Storm Prediction Center (SPC) – Convective outlooks • National Weather Service (NWS) – Flash Flood Watches • NOAA Mission Goal supported: • Weather and Water • Commerce and Transportation • Mission priority: Optimal V13.7 June 2008

  5. Capabilities Assessment V13.7 June 2008

  6. SHORTFALLS • Accuracy of Product • Days 1-3 QPF Forecasts have room for improvement • Operational models struggle with mesoscale storm organization, likely due to convective parameterizations • Define how product development addresses shortfalls • MCS Index uses an empirically developed formula to assess the likelihood of thunderstorm upscale growth • This additional piece of information will help forecasters pinpoint regions which may receive excessive rainfall • Benefit • Improved QPF forecasts; better flash flood watch/warning accuracy • Impact if not funded • Continued reliance on inferior model convective parameterizations V13.7 June 2008

  7. Algorithm Status and Approach • Current status of algorithms being considered in your project • Algorithm details found in Jirak and Cotton (W&F, Aug. 2007) • Real-time verification stats for experimental product available on CIRA website • Overview of technical approach of the algorithm and its implementation • NAM analysis and forecast fields used to predict likelihood of convective upscale growth into an MCS; GOES data used to verify MCS development • Ancillary data includes 6-hourly NAM analysis and 6-hour forecasts out to 84 hours • Every 6 hours, new NAM output used to generate MCS Index analysis and forecasts; algorithm creates images of the output which are sent to a web server; GOES IR data used to verify each forecast, and verification algorithm is run once daily • Briefly describe the validation concept • GOES IR data analyzed to determine existence of MCS • Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate, Threat Score, and Heidke Skill Score are computed for each forecast time • Experimental product is being evaluated by SAB and HPC V13.7 June 2008

  8. Dissemination User System User System User System Storage SAB/CIRA Website SPC NWS Forecast Offices HPC OSDPD Development and Operations OSDPD IT System Architecture 10.7 Imagery for MCS existence verification NAM analysis & 6-hourly forecasts Input Data Includes: GOES 10.7 imagery and NAM output V13.7 June 2008

  9. Plan of Operations • Storage Plan • Final product is a 2-D field updated 4 times daily, so multiple years can be stored at CIRA • Long Term Maintenance Plan • Maintenance is minimal once system is up and running • STAR/RAMMB to perform verification and algorithm improvements • OSDPD to ensure dataflow is not interrupted and website is stable • Quality Monitoring Plan • A real-time verification algorithm already exists • Verification stats will be monitored, and the algorithm will be tuned to maximize stats as more data is collected • Documentation/Metadata Plan • Documentation and metadata will be provided by STAR/RAMMB • User Involvement Plan • Primary users will be contacted via email or phone after each convective season to receive feedback on algorithm performance, suggestions for further improvements, etc. V13.7 June 2008

  10. Project Milestones and Key Tasks Product Delivery/Tracking Name: GOES MCS Index • May 08 (May 08): Development Phase Begins • May 08 (May 08): Implement data stream for GOES and NAM at CIRA/RAMMB - done • May 08 (May 08): Send input data to algorithm, calculate Index, create .gifs - done • May 08 (May 08): Send .gifs to webpage and display prototype product in real-time - done • May 08 (May 08): Implement real-time storage and verification systems - done • Dec 08 (Sep 08): Develop data stream at SAB, ensuring proper format • Dec 08 (Dec 08): Develop code to calculate Index from input data at SAB • Feb 09 (Feb 08): Develop webpage at SAB to display real-time Index • Mar 09 (Mar 09): Implement real-time verification system • Apr 09 (Apr 09): Begin all real-time components at SAB in time for severe weather season • May 09 (May 09): Pre-operational Phase Begins • May 09 (May 09): Run MCS Index in real-time and display on SAB webpage • May 09 (May 09): Continue running algorithm at CIRA/RAMMB in parallel and maintain webpage • Sep 09 (Sep 09): Users monitor product and provide feedback • Dec 09 (Sep 09): Complete all documentation and metadata • Apr 10 (Apr 10): Product declared operational to SPSRB • May 10 (May 10): Operational Phase Begins • May 10 (May 10): SPSRB declares MCS Index operational • SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages • OSD updates Satellite Products database V13.7 June 2008

  11. Product Deliverable Details N=New E=Enhanced R=Replacement T=Tailored V13.7 June 2008

  12. GOES Mesoscale Convective System Index Funding (K) V13.7 June 2008

  13. Current Fiscal Year Efforts FY08 • (70K Geo-PSDI): • CIRA grant includes 55K for 1 person at half time from May 08 until May 09 • CIRA individual will perform primarily computer tasks, including setting up the GOES and NAM data streams, writing scripts to extract the necessary data, writing scripts and Fortran programs to implement the algorithm, and creating and maintaining a real-time web page at CIRA which displays the algorithm. Also begin setting up a similar data stream at NESDIS/IPB • Remainder of CIRA grant (15K) to Israel Jirak, original developer of the algorithm, for 2 months of full-time work • I. Jirak to assist in the science support portion of the algorithm implementation, particularly in developing a real-time verification scheme using GOES data • (40K Geo-PSDI): OSDPD Software Contractor for 1 person at 1/6 time from May 08 to May 09 • Establish data flow at SAB on the developmental machine • Establish details of the storage requirements and operational processing • Develop website at SAB to display the real-time product • D. Lindsey covered by base funding and will lead CIRA efforts V13.7 June 2008

  14. Next Fiscal Year Efforts FY09 • (50K Geo-PSDI): • CIRA grant includes 35K for 1 person at 1/3 time from May 09 until May 10 • Continued computer support to ensure stability of real-time data streams, and web page. Complete the implementation of the data streams and algorithm at NESDIS/IPB. Assist with the preparation of documentation. • Remainder of CIRA grant (15K) to Israel Jirak, original developer of the algorithm, for 1 month of full-time consulting work • Continued science support, including implementation of the real-time verification scheme at NESDIS/IPB • (10K Geo-PSDI): OSDPD Software Contractor for 1 person at 1/4 time from May 09 to May 10 • Keep workstation up and running and ensure data stream is uninterrupted • Maintain website, and help migration to operations including storage plan implementation • Coordinate the delivery of algorithm/product documentation • D. Lindsey covered by base funding and will lead CIRA efforts SPSRB Template Version 12.3 May 2007 V13.7 June 2008

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